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The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge: *** John Swarce wins! *** - Page 5

post #121 of 147
4/17/08 at 9:49am

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

I note that Jed M and I are currently tied. . .and we picked the same top 4!
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post #122 of 147
4/17/08 at 11:20am

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Wow, how did I nail KLC's ouster for the final 7 week? Lucky!
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post #123 of 147
4/17/08 at 2:43pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Interesting to see how the standings changed in one week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron Silverman
I note that Jed M and I are currently tied. . .and we picked the same top 4!
I saw that too, Aaron. Kind of amazing, considering all of the combinations that could have been made. You both have Brooke as the winner, so if the voting stays like it was last night, she may be voted off next week. That would hurt you both!

I'm happy to still be in the lead, but I'm nervous about a few people catching me (or me surpassing them, whichever way you want to look at it). I am screwed if Carly goes out next week, or one of the Davids (although I now think they both will be in the final 2)...or if Brooke wins the whole thing!

--John
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post #124 of 147
4/17/08 at 2:58pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Brooke is going to have to turn things around in a big way to even be in the final three at this point.

That Darn Castro is putting a real dent in my diabolical victory plans!
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post #125 of 147
4/17/08 at 3:30pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron Silverman
That Darn Castro is putting a real dent in my diabolical victory plans!

And I need him to go at #3, because despite what Robert says about my not picking up points when he leaves, if he leaves anywhere else, that means my other picks cause me to pick up points! What a conundrum!

--John
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post #126 of 147
4/17/08 at 6:03pm
Thread Starter 

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Swarce
And I need him to go at #3, because despite what Robert says about my not picking up points when he leaves, if he leaves anywhere else, that means my other picks cause me to pick up points! What a conundrum!

--John

Yes John, you have described the real double-edged sword of this contest format. You definitely pick up "zero" points when someone not in your top ten goes at this point but if he doesn't exit in a spot where you have someone who isn't still alive you will be penalized posthumously. I love this format! Much more than meets the eye at first glance.

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post #127 of 147
4/17/08 at 6:47pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Quote:
Originally Posted by RAF
Yes John, you have described the real double-edged sword of this contest format. You definitely pick up "zero" points when someone not in your top ten goes at this point but if he doesn't exit in a spot where you have someone who isn't still alive you will be penalized posthumously. I love this format! Much more than meets the eye at first glance.
Which applies in spades to me and I'm clearly not going to win despite the early 'blaze' of getting my entire top 10 into the actual top 12 and scoring zero at that stage. Getting the actual order completely wrong (I've already lost 3 of my top 4, save Archie) can cost just as many points as picking someone who never made the top 12 -- I roughly estimate that I will pick up at least 15 more points before this is over, assuming Archie wins and the rest go out in the same sequence (although obviously different actual spot) as my predictions, which I think minimises further points losses, leaving me on a whopping 38. Whereas I note that many already in the high 20s or even 30s will get a few 'zero point' weeks when contestants they didn't pick leave, so I get to 'catch up' with them.
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post #128 of 147
4/23/08 at 8:45pm
Thread Starter 

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

This is turning into a real horse race as popularity seems to have taken over from singing ability. John Swarce is hanging on by a thread with 14.0 points with Jed M. and Aaron Silverman both nipping at his heels at 14.5 points. A couple of others have a shot if things fall right although the possibilities lessen as more contestants get voted off. At some point (I haven't taken the time to do the math) some contenders will be eliminated because of duplicate selections, etc.

Full details are, as usual, in the first message in this thread.
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post #129 of 147
4/23/08 at 9:38pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Just what I did not want to happen..Carly going earlier than I expected. A horse race it is...and my hope is for Brooke to go next week, though it looks like she may pick up the Carly voters. Otherwise, she will give me too many points where ever she lands.

Great little contest you've developed here, Robert! Let's see how they do with Neil Diamond songs next week.

--John
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post #130 of 147
4/24/08 at 11:05am

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Man, was I torn -- if Syesha had gone home, it would have been an absolute travesty, but it also would've been another exact pick for my list!

Too bad Carly left after one of her few good performances (I thought her farewell performance last night actually might have been her best one yet). Them's the breaks!

I'm still bitter that Castro's sticking around though.
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post #131 of 147
4/24/08 at 11:17am

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

A few calculations. . .

At this point I am guaranteed to finish 1 point ahead of Jed M. When Jason goes, I'll get 2 more points than he will, and when Syesha goes, he'll get 3 more points than I will. We have everyone else in the same spot.

When Syesha goes, I'll get 2 more points than John Swarce. The others are a bit up in the air. If Jason doesn't go very soon, it'll be very tough for me to catch him. I'll probably need to get the top 3 perfect in order to win. I'm hosed if Brooke or David C. doesn't make the top 3. John's 14 score is even more impressive when you consider that he didn't even have Jason in the top 10!

Yup. . .if Jason goes next week and I call the top 3 perfectly, I'll beat John by 1.5. So I have 1 spot of breathing room. . .
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post #132 of 147
4/24/08 at 11:57am

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron Silverman
A few calculations. . .

At this point I am guaranteed to finish 1 point ahead of Jed M.
Son of a...
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post #133 of 147
4/24/08 at 12:19pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

AnthonyC's got an excellent shot at the title as well -- if Brooke makes it to the top 2. It's pretty much a 3-way race, I think!
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post #134 of 147
4/24/08 at 1:52pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Damn, I really need Brooke to go next week, Aaron! Thanks for breaking it down....my head was hurting looking at all the possibilities!

--John
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post #135 of 147
4/24/08 at 3:19pm
Thread Starter 

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

I'm glad you all like the format. I think it's great because it lets everyone pick their favorite to win without being locked out (like in some of our previous contests that were limited to not letting more than one person pick a contestant for the top spot.) In other words, millions of people could have chosen David A. to win in this format (not that he necessarily will win). You get the idea.

But that's just the tip of the iceberg. The first part is to try to pick who will make it to the top ten. The next part is to see how closely you can pick their order of finish. There are twists and turns everywhere. Even if some of your selections didn't make the top ten you might recoup a bit by not getting points some weeks if things fall right. Any game that doesn't automatically eliminate you if you make a few missteps at the outset is usually a popular one in my opinion.

And right now we have entered what I like to call the "Chess Game" portion of the contest (or perhaps, more appropriately, the "EndGame"). At this point everyone is trying to look several moves ahead to try to determine the outcome (just like in Chess!).

I love it.

Enjoy!

(I'm talking to our sources this week or the next to see exactly what DVDs will be in the prize package for the winner. As soon as I know, you will know.)
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post #136 of 147
4/24/08 at 8:58pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Quote:
Originally Posted by RAF
But that's just the tip of the iceberg. The first part is to try to pick who will make it to the top ten. The next part is to see how closely you can pick their order of finish.

The first part is to try to pick who will make it to the top ten.
Check!

The next part is to see how closely you can pick their order of finish.
Doh!

That, I think, sums up my entry. I got all my picks into the top ten -- but 4 of my top 5 have already bombed out, racking up lots of points. And when 4 of my bottom 5 start exiting in the top 5, again I'll rack up lots more points.

But yeah, it was fun! Sign me up for season 8! (masochist that I am...)
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post #137 of 147
4/30/08 at 9:57pm
Thread Starter 

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

After a quick look at tonight's results, I believe that John Swarce cannot be caught. I project his "worst case scenario" as 25 points and if this holds, then nobody else can end up with a score lower than 25.

Can anyone else verify this (for now) unofficial result? We are currently putting together a DVD prize package which I will announce in the next few days. As soon as we know for sure who won the prize it will be mailed out.

Stay tuned...
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post #138 of 147
5/1/08 at 11:31am

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

You Idol voters finally really did it. You maniacs! You blew up my entry! Ah, damn you! DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL!!!!!!
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post #139 of 147
5/1/08 at 2:42pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Quote:
Originally Posted by RAF
After a quick look at tonight's results, I believe that John Swarce cannot be caught. I project his "worst case scenario" as 25 points and if this holds, then nobody else can end up with a score lower than 25.

Whoa...I can't believe it....and the race was extremely close after last week's results!

I had my fingers crossed for the whole hour last night hoping that Brooke would go, although she did not sing as badly as Jason did. I really lucked out with Aaron and Jed picking Jason and Syesha so low.

--John
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post #140 of 147
5/1/08 at 6:23pm
Thread Starter 

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

(Unofficial) Congratulations, John! Will someone else please check my math on this to make sure I've got all possibilities covered? I'd hate to have made a mistake.

In preparation for the probable "coronation" John will you please e-mail me your full mailing address so that we can send you your prize as soon as everything checks out. Please use my email address as follows:

rfowkes@rfowkes.com

That's the one I check several times a day. Also supply your e-mail address to me in that message so that I can confirm shipment (once we double check all the scores).

At this point I am pleased to announce our DVD Prize package:

Fellow moderator Adam Gregorich has put together a DVD package that I think is a very eclectic mix. There's just about something for everyone. Adam oversees our DVD reviewer distribution and not all screeners (all full retail copies, not check discs) are able to be reviewed. Just because something isn't reviewed doesn't mean it's a dog. Lots of great titles never get reviewed due to time constraints.

Here's what will be going out to the winner:

Alain Delon - Five Film Collection
The Backwoods (2006)
Golden Door (2006)
October Road - The Complete First Season
TMNT (2007)

You can check these titles out at Amazon.com for full details (hot links provided in the list). FYI, the complete list price for these five titles is almost $150 and it looks like the street price is over $100 from discount sources, so this is a pretty good package - considering the entry fees you all paid to participate! Incidentally, all sales are final.



I can never guarantee that an entrant will not have one or more of these titles already (or even if they have a DVD player) but surely they have friends and/or relatives who do. Here's hoping that the winner gets enjoyment (or "re-gifting") out of the parcel.
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post #141 of 147
5/2/08 at 4:13am

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Robert:

(Unofficially) Thanks for the prize package. You are right, it is an eclectic mix! I don’t have any of these in my collection. Looking forward to viewing the Alain Delon collection (the French James Dean, I hear?) and October Road (never saw this).

I have sent my info to your e-mail address.

Thanks again,

John
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post #142 of 147
5/2/08 at 9:40am
Thread Starter 

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

John,

You're welcome. You earned it with that excellent score. I'm going to wait a couple of more days to see if anyone discovers some flaw in the way that I scored this. I think it is mathematically impossible for you to be caught or even tied but I was hoping for someone else to check in to verify my assessment.

If I hear nothing to the contrary I'll request that Adam sends out your parcel in the mail on Monday, o.k.?
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post #143 of 147
5/2/08 at 7:15pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**John Swarce projected Winner!**

Sounds good, Robert!

--John
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post #144 of 147
5/7/08 at 7:49pm
Thread Starter 

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**John Swarce projected Winner!**

According to my calculations, John Swarce is the winner (and his prize package should be on its way to him shortly). The "worst" he can do is to end up with 24 points and the best he can do is to end up with 20 points because of where his final three picks are located on his list. Nobody else can overtake him for the lead at this point.

Congratulations, John!



(I'll continue to update the scores until the season is officially over).
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post #145 of 147
5/8/08 at 9:13am

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**John Swarce projected Winner!**

Congratulations, John!

If David A. goes home next week, I'll end up with 31.5 points. Otherwise, I'll have 29.5.

I'll leave it to everyone else to figure out their own scores.
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post #146 of 147
5/8/08 at 3:01pm

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**ENTRIES NOW CLOSED**

Thanks, Robert and Aaron!

From one of my previous posts....

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Swarce
Well, color me surprised! Leading with 3 points? Trust me, folks, I never win anything, so don't think that I am very smug with these results.

--John

I am still really surprised at the result. I really just pulled names out of a hat (well, I did put a bit of thought in it, although I looked at popularity and buzz at the time more than actual talent).

I hope to join another Top 10 Challenge in the future, and in the spirit of the competiton, I will join Phil-W in declining any prize package if I win (at least for the next challenge!).

...and no, I am not smug!

--John
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post #147 of 147
5/14/08 at 8:49pm
Thread Starter 

Re: The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge:**John Swarce projected Winner!**

It's official! John Swarce is the winner. With a worst case scenario total of 22.0 points nobody can beat him. Next week we will post the final standings for all entries.

Congratulations, John. (John is currently enjoying his DVD package as previously mentioned).
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