Re: Should WB and the BDA give HD DVD owners a "peace offering" to welcome them to Bl
Instead of looking at such a "peace offering" as a handout, look at it as a promotion.
People who have purchased HD DVD players are the exact market that the BDA hopes to attract. Except for those that bought into both formats, those buyers spent disposable income on a machine that cannot play Blu-ray discs. It's also possible that, now that a purchase has been made, it may be difficult or impossible for those same people to make another purchase just because the format war didn't go the way of HD DVD.
The low-hanging fruit can be picked in the next couple of weeks. Enthusiasts watching the events of the past week might have already purchased a Blu-ray player if they were on the fence, or are planning to in short order. That's the easy sale.
The next easiest sale is to those that have bought into the hobby, but haven't purchased a Blu-ray player.
The hardest sale is to those that haven't bought into either format and may not recognize the advantages of Blu-ray over DVD.
Applying simple marketing shows that you don't need to market to the first segment, because they are taking it upon themselves to make a purchase. The only marketing you need to do to them is to get them to purchase your player instead of someone else's.
The next target is the HD DVD buyer. The sale is easier than the last segment, and the two major obstacles you face are 1) price, and 2) value comparison to HD DVD. By offering a discount to this segment, you allay some level of concern about #1 and you generate goodwill to smoothe over any hard feelings that the potential buyer may have about how things turned out.
#2 is a more difficult proposition. HD DVD buyers know what their players and the format were capable of. Players of equivalent featuresets need to be offered so that the value is a little less lopsided. That rules out any non Profile 1.1 players, and one could argue that it could rule out any non Profile 2.0 players.
Offering present HD DVD owners something on the order of the Panasonic DMP-BD50 for $350 and positioning it as an upgrade from their HD DVD player will make it easier for the fence-sitters to buy into the format. Once you have them, they become evangelists that will help you with that last segment of holdouts.
$350 for the DMP-BD50 may seem ridiculous if you're accustomed to the Blu-ray player market, but if you're coming in from the other side, it's the only player currently available or announced, besides the PS3, that approaches the functionality found in every HD DVD player made. Of course, its support of the advanced audio specs make it better than the A30 and A3, and 1080p24 make it better than the A3, but even at $350, it's also substantially more expensive than all but the A35 HD DVD player.
If the PS3 entered the discussion, I think that a good price to get converts would be $300 for the 40GB version. It's been sold at that price before during various promotions, so I don't think that $300 is unreasonable. It also achieves Sony's goal of getting more PS3's in the wild.
To put these numbers into perspective, if the BDA were to buy 750,000 Blu-ray players valued at $300 each and give them away, that would be a $225M hit to the marketing budget. That's a lot of money, but not a lot when you consider that doing so would buy the entire HDM market and put the issue of multiple formats to rest.
From the perspective of the movie studios, I definitely feel like Warner Bros. betrayed the consumers. They were quoted as denying any change in plans as recently as mid-December. Not too many people are going to believe that they didn't know what was up by then.
Warner Bros. could gain an incredible amount of goodwill by exchanging discs for consumers. They could even partner with a big box retailer to perform the exchanges for them, as the retailer would gain from getting people in the door and they would have the chance to market to those people and perhaps persuade them to buy more Blu-ray hardware and software while they were there.
Customers get immediate gratification without dealing with the delays and hassle of mailing discs, Warner Bros. doesn't have to deal with fulfillment (not a strong suit of the WB store at this point in time), and retailers get customers walking in the door. I don't see how the cost of such a program wouldn't be outweighed by the direct and indirect benefits.
The hardware and software promotions could be combined. Instead of offering 5 free discs by mail, which might show up sometime around May, offer the players at a trade-in discount and an even exchange for the discs. The players get recycled by the pallet-full instead of being sent in one at a time or some such nonsense, and customers walk out with brand new hardware and most of the same movies (at least from WB) that they had before. That's a lot of happy customers!
This isn't about anyone asking for a handout. It's about using marketing to overcome obstacles to purchase. Every sale has a cost, and it's just a matter of how much cost-per-sale is acceptable to obtain one's goals. Blu-ray has a long uphill battle ahead of it against standard definition DVD. It needs as many happy customers as it can get.