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post #1591 of 1635
1/28/08 at 11:22am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

I, admittedly, have had a hard time keeping up with this discussion...so, forgive me, if this has already been reported.

The NY Times says the ratio of sales of BD Players:HD-DVD Players went to 90:10 the week after the Warner's announcement.

Quote:
Stephen Baker, NPD’s vice president for industry analysis, said not too much should be read into one week’s sales results. “One week is not a trend. It’s a data point,” he said.

Still, Mr. Baker doubted that sales swings of that magnitude could be attributed to price changes alone, especially given the extensive news coverage the Warner announcement received.

Toshiba certainly took notice. To spur sales, it cut the price of its players on Jan. 13. Its entry-level HD-A3 machine now sells for $149.99, down from $299, making it not that much more expensive than some of the old-fashioned DVD players. Blu-ray players typically cost about $300.
post #1592 of 1635
1/28/08 at 12:35pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

You could´ve released many HD DVD-titles for this price..

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...Bowl_Spot/1410

(Then again, it´s not not exactly peanuts what Blu-ray is probably spending on advertising, either..)
post #1593 of 1635
1/28/08 at 1:04pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Well, releasing catalog titles doesn't exactly loudly declare that you're still around unless you've got some very big guns coming out very soon. Since that's Step One to any possible HD-DVD comeback, it's what they've got to do.
post #1594 of 1635
1/28/08 at 6:12pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul Arnette
The Woolworth's news seems pretty solid given that the HD DVD PRG have already responded to it: HD DVD Group responds to Woolies Blu-ray only stance news

The Circuit City bit seems a little premature.

BTW, and this isn't directed at anyone in particular, but am I the only one who isn't expecting Press Release announcements from retailers indicating that they're dropping a HDM format? It would seem like rubbing salt in the wound of a manufacturer you would undoubtably be doing business with in the future.

Paul, I agree with you. Surprising that the response includes a comment of future promotions. Will it be a free player if you buy 5 movies or 10 movies and a 50 dollar player.

For the group, Sorry but do they think that this will make people want to carry their players. The goal is to make money with each sale. Most players cost 70% of retail. Not as much markup with electronics. Sell an HD DVD player make 30 dollars. Sell a Blu_ray and make 120 dollars.
post #1595 of 1635
1/28/08 at 6:38pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

I may be in the minority here but I _DO_ expect press releases from CC and BB at a minimum when they cull down to one format. They will trumpet it as the consumer having made the choice with their wallets and one format will be the heir apparent to DVD. The sooner the better.

And they will be gracious in acknowledging that this does have downsides for some of the participants but encourage/welcome them to join that format bandwagon.
post #1596 of 1635
1/29/08 at 5:33pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Maybe CC (of all the retail chains) will do it just because of DIVX.

_Man_
post #1597 of 1635
1/29/08 at 8:47pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
The goal is to make money with each sale. Most players cost 70% of retail. Not as much markup with electronics. Sell an HD DVD player make 30 dollars. Sell a Blu_ray and make 120 dollars.

Give away a blu-ray player and get nothing.

I don't think that CC can afford to turn down anyone's money. They might be in bankruptcy before they have a chance to drop anyone.

I'm just amazed how anxious some people are go get rid of hd-dvd. If things are going so well then why be in such a rush. One would think that you might be worried that hd-dvd is not as dead as you want us to think.
post #1598 of 1635
1/29/08 at 8:51pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

The only BD players being give away were with sales of 50"+ TVs, so I'm quite confident they were not gonna "get nothing".
post #1599 of 1635
1/29/08 at 8:57pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

I doubt people were buying 50" tvs to get free blu-ray players. I suspect most of these sales would have been made without a blu-ray player.
post #1600 of 1635
1/30/08 at 10:56am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrancisP
I doubt people were buying 50" tvs to get free blu-ray players. I suspect most of these sales would have been made without a blu-ray player.

Either way, it's the CE companies who are subsidizing the free players, not the retail stores themselves, if I understand correctly -- well, probably not anymore so than normal anyway. You were quoting and replying to the point of what the retailers (not the CE companies) make on player sales.

Besides, they run these kinds of promotions every year in anticipation of the Super Bowl. I think they gave away free DVD players in the past too. When I bought my 53" several years ago, they gave me a leather lounge chair w/ ottoman. Yeah, I'd agree that past SB promo giveaways weren't as nice as a BD player, but it's not like this is something completely new and unique to this situation...

_Man_
post #1601 of 1635
1/30/08 at 3:45pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrancisP
I doubt people were buying 50" tvs to get free blu-ray players. I suspect most of these sales would have been made without a blu-ray player.
That still doesn't explain Blu-ray's sales leads in December or last week, when such promotions were not going on. In other words, more expensive and "profile-less" Blu-ray players are selling better no matter what. Despite claims from a vocal few to the contrary, price and web doodads really are useless when faced with the right content.
post #1602 of 1635
1/31/08 at 11:25am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

You are forgetting the pre-Black Friday sale that Walmart had. It turned into a industry wide sale because other retailers like BB and online retailers like Amazon matched it and offered deals on higher end models. It would be a safe bet that between 100,000 and 200,000 were sold. It probably cannibilized some December sales.

If you want to use the NDP numbers, blu-ray and hd-dvd sold around 50-50 around the last week of December.

The 93-7 spread probably came for another reason that no one has mentioned. In addition to Warner, bluray people were spreading runors that Universal and Paramount were going to drop hd-dvd. If that had happened, no studios would be supporting that. That got nearly as much coverage as Warner.

Blu-ray has had a promotion going on the last few weeks. They have been giving away blu-ray players with sales of 50"+ have been getting free bluray players. These giveaways are counted as sales whether you want it or not. If you don't want it then you put it in your closet. Certainly some of that 8,000 player margin is due to that.

I would point out that when NPD generates these guesstimates, they analyze what is going on. The blu-ray people want to through the raw numbers around but they don't want to throw out the analysis. This is only telling half the story.

My point is that sales, I mean people who are willing to put money on the table, are relatively even. With one side having a small advantage, there is no mandate.
post #1603 of 1635
1/31/08 at 11:38am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrancisP
You are forgetting the pre-Black Friday sale that Walmart had. It turned into a industry wide sale because other retailers like BB and online retailers like Amazon matched it and offered deals on higher end models. It would be a safe bet that between 100,000 and 200,000 were sold.
Nope, it was about 90,000.
Quote:
It probably cannibilized some December sales.
And? That doesn't change the fact the cannibalized sales didn't happen.
Quote:
If you want to use the NDP numbers, blu-ray and hd-dvd sold around 50-50 around the last week of December.
IIRC, it was for the month of December, not the last week.
Quote:
The 93-7 spread probably came for another reason that no one has mentioned. In addition to Warner, bluray people were spreading runors that Universal and Paramount were going to drop hd-dvd. If that had happened, no studios would be supporting that. That got nearly as much coverage as Warner.
So, then you're changing your argument? Now I'm confused.
Quote:
Blu-ray has had a promotion going on the last few weeks. They have been giving away blu-ray players with sales of 50"+ have been getting free bluray players. These giveaways are counted as sales whether you want it or not. If you don't want it then you put it in your closet. Certainly some of that 8,000 player margin is due to that.
Maybe that explained one or two weeks, but it still doesn't explain last week.
Quote:
I would point out that when NPD generates these guesstimates, they analyze what is going on. The blu-ray people want to through the raw numbers around but they don't want to throw out the analysis. This is only telling half the story.
That's not what we're doing. The only thing that NPD "threw out" was that there was a blow-out trend. They weren't throwing out the fact that HD DVD players were getting outsold by significant margins. Again, see last week's numbers where Toshiba instituted the price cuts and were still outsold 2:1.
Quote:
My point is that sales, I mean people who are willing to put money on the table, are relatively even. With one side having a small advantage, there is no mandate.
Well, if you can show that is still happening, by all means go ahead.
post #1604 of 1635
1/31/08 at 7:21pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

I was just checking out the Blu-ray release list here and I Am Legend does not show up on the list. I find this interesting that I Am Legend is coming out on HD-DVD and not Blu-ray. This title is scheduled for HD-DVD 4/8 according to the release schedule. Has anyone here heard if I Am Legend is going to be on Blu-ray as well? And is there any info on what audio track might be included on this title?
post #1605 of 1635
1/31/08 at 7:29pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Moritz
I find this interesting that I Am Legend is coming out on HD-DVD and not Blu-ray. This title is scheduled for HD-DVD 4/8 according to the release schedule. Has anyone here heard if I Am Legend is going to be on Blu-ray as well?
Warner Brings 'I Am Legend' to Blu-ray, HD DVD | High-Def Digest
post #1606 of 1635
1/31/08 at 7:51pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Went to Best Buy today and saw some changes. The main middle section has only Blu-ray. Still an HD-DVD display. Reps only recommended Blu-ray players.

As for software, it looked like they are allowing HD-DVD software to sell down. Looks like they are not planning to replenish HD-DVD movies.

Many HD-DVD players available but no one looking at them. Seems like this is the telling sign of the shift.

I would recommend to Best Buy to move the HD-DVD player to the upconvert DVD section and eliminate the software. Force the last two studios to get to one format. If Walmart and Best Buy stop buying HD-DVD software that ends the dual format war.
post #1607 of 1635
1/31/08 at 8:17pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

post #1608 of 1635
1/31/08 at 8:22pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Thanks for the info on I Am Legend. I hope that it will at least get Dolby True HD like Harry Potter and Blade Runner did. It would also be nice if WB turned off the DN for a change, ya I know DN is supposed to not effect anything. I would prefer to not have DN turned on anyway.
post #1609 of 1635
1/31/08 at 8:30pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan_Ohio
Went to Best Buy today and saw some changes. The main middle section has only Blu-ray. Still an HD-DVD display. Reps only recommended Blu-ray players.

As for software, it looked like they are allowing HD-DVD software to sell down. Looks like they are not planning to replenish HD-DVD movies.

Many HD-DVD players available but no one looking at them. Seems like this is the telling sign of the shift.

I would recommend to Best Buy to move the HD-DVD player to the upconvert DVD section and eliminate the software. Force the last two studios to get to one format. If Walmart and Best Buy stop buying HD-DVD software that ends the dual format war.

Dan, the problem with that is that Best Buy wants to please those customers that purchased a hd-dvd player from them too, so they just can't delete the software section in a flash. That would be very unfair to those previous hd-dvd buyers.

In our Best Buy store, we would have many angry people who had purchased a player over the holidays if we stopped software support completely the very next month.
post #1610 of 1635
1/31/08 at 10:44pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Couldn't help but notice this on I Am Legend's cover art:

"Includes alternate theatrical version with controversial ending (not rated)".

From dvdactive.com:

"The 2-disc special edition will include all that, along with an alternate theatrical version of the film with a "controversial" ending. HD-DVD/DVD Combo and Blu-ray releases will also be available for $35.99 with all of the 2-disc features."

It's not clear as to whether the different ending will be seamless branching, or on the disc as a separate encode. If it's closer to the book ending I may pick it up.

EDIT: Just read in the other thread that the alternate ending is not what I was hoping for. Bummer.
post #1611 of 1635
2/1/08 at 10:38am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Nope, it was about 90,000.
That was the sales figures for Walmart and BB. That did not include regional chains, smaller retail outlets and online sales. Video Business was unable to get sales figures for many of these outlets. They did quote some of these outlets that they sold more hd-dvd players.

Quote:
And? That doesn't change the fact the cannibalized sales didn't happen.
The sales did happen but they happened in November.

Quote:
That's not what we're doing. The only thing that NPD "threw out" was that there was a blow-out trend. They weren't throwing out the fact that HD DVD players were getting outsold by significant margins. Again, see last week's numbers where Toshiba instituted the price cuts and were still outsold 2:1.
The NPD did not say anything of the sort. They did not even release these numbers. They were leaked.

Steven Baker VP of analysis for NDP says you cannot call long term trends on weekly data. Also Baker said the bundling of HDTV players and bluray players led to these figures. Sharp got 30% of bluray sales, Sony and Panasonic got about a third each. All of them bundled hdtvs and bluray players. Samsung, who did not offer any, had miniscule sales.

Also the NDP group does not stand by these numbers. They are not making any claims that these are the actual sales numbers for the week. According to NDP they collect data from a double digit(10-99) number of retail outlets. Not chains but outlets. It could be a BB in LA, A CC in San Diego.

Also the NDP Group said bluray and hd-dvd sales were 50-50 the week before
the Warner announcement. Also the NDP numbers are not accurate because
they do not include online sales. Hd-dvd sales on Amazon have been better
than bluray yet these numbers are not counted.

Weekly sales are not consistent. Each week has its own dynamics. I do think a lot of people who were planning to make hd-dvd purchases over the holidays moved their plans up to take advantage of the sale. However the first week in January has its own dynamic. If the rumors were true and Paramount and Universal abandoned hd-dvd that would have been it. I don't see how anyone can argue that is no true.

Also retailers should be serving customers not deciding what people will be allowed to purchase. I love these bluray people who want to screw hd-dvd owners. They just make me more determined to stay away from bluray. Reps should not be recommending anything to consumers. If they are recommending bluray then who are they looking out for the customer or retailer.
post #1612 of 1635
2/1/08 at 1:43pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

The NPD numbers aren't leaked. They are published regularly in such places as Home Media Magazine, which, by the way, keeps their most recent issue online.
post #1613 of 1635
2/1/08 at 2:36pm

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Perhaps we should "move" these "sales figures" discussions to the other thread (I believe we have one created for that talk..kinda)? I mean this is pretty useless "back-and-worth"-type of tennis. HD DVD-fans won´t believe the "positive Blu-ray"-figures and Blu-ray-fans won´t´believe the "positive HD DVD"-figures. I mean, what´s the point?

.
.
.

Btw. Please don´t reveal any "spoilers" for "I am Legend" (about the ending or anything). I haven´t seen the film and waiting for the HD-release. Thanks.
post #1614 of 1635
2/2/08 at 8:58am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

According to the VP of industry analysis for NDP, they have not been approved for release. I guess he's just a shill for hd-dvd. These numbers are nowhere near complete anyone passing them off as such are propagandists.
If Home Media is using them as such, it shows a lack of journalistic integrity.

[quote]I mean this is pretty useless "back-and-worth"-type of tennis. HD DVD-fans won´t believe the "positive Blu-ray"-figures and Blu-ray-fans won´t´believe the "positive HD DVD"-figures. I mean, what´s the point?[quote]
The point is balance. The blu-ray people are throwing these NDP figures around without the NDP group analysis. The blu-ray people throw around the 93-7 margin without mentioning the NDP group says the advantage was primarily due to bundling bluray players with hd tvs. Bluray people are quick to throw out NDP figures saying more bluray players were sold in December without mentioning that online retailers like Amazon are not counted in NDP numbers.

BetaNews did an excellent job in a recent article. It was completely unbiased.
They laid out the numbers in question, got NDP's take on the numbers, and told you how NDP compiles those numbers. They laid the facts out and let the reader make up their mind. Maybe Bill Hunt could learn a few tricks about unbiased reporting.
post #1615 of 1635
2/2/08 at 9:49am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by nolesrule
The NPD numbers aren't leaked. They are published regularly in such places as Home Media Magazine, which, by the way, keeps their most recent issue online.

NPD hardware numbers are not published regularly in Home Media Magazine. Nielsen First Alert ratios and rankings for software are published just about weekly.

The NPD numbers that showed the 93:7 week for BD hardware that were posted on The Digital Bits were leaked and were not supposed to be published and are not indicative of anything according to the company that compiles the data.

The publishing of those numbers was nothing more than an unethical move by someone in a Blu-ray supporting company in the propaganda war against HD DVD. Although I don't care for much of the propaganda, I accept it, but the releasing of incomplete data that is open for misinterpretation crossed a line IMO.

The Blu folks are making me more strongly red every day.
post #1616 of 1635
2/2/08 at 10:01am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jari K
Btw. Please don´t reveal any "spoilers" for "I am Legend" (about the ending or anything). I haven´t seen the film and waiting for the HD-release. Thanks.
I wouldn't do that. I was vague for that very reason.
post #1617 of 1635
2/2/08 at 10:09am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

thedigitalbits has the latest sales figures for software. It's the same basic roughly 80/20 split between BD / HD DVD we saw last week.
post #1618 of 1635
2/2/08 at 11:02am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpcos
not indicative of anything according to the company that compiles the data.

Of course the numbers aren't indicative of anything. They are a single data point. In addition, it's not the role of the company that the compiles data to reach conclusions, just to compile the data. It's up to analysts to review the market forces involved and trends over multiple data points.

And even if the data was leaked, it doesn't make it false.
post #1619 of 1635
2/2/08 at 11:50am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by nolesrule
Of course the numbers aren't indicative of anything.

Then why were they posted and spread so prominently across the internet? Someone was trying to say they WERE indicative of something.

Quote:
And even if the data was leaked, it doesn't make it false.

But it can make it INVALID without context or completeness, and data's validity is just as important as its accuracy. And leaking data is unquestionably unethical.
post #1620 of 1635
2/2/08 at 11:54am

Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

They are not official NPD data. And anyone claiming so publishes them under false pretenses (even more so if (s)he changed them for some reason).


Cees
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