2008 at the Box Office - Page 4

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Does anyone actually have any figures relating to the DVD sales vs. the number of tickets sold?

Edit, this Hollywood Reporter article:

Warner tops DVD share in 'Incredible' '05

cites 6.15 million copies of "Batman Begins" by the end of 2005.

That is CERTAINLY not a step up from the box-office performance. That article pretty much sums up how the "Batman Begins" DVD sales were very much in-line with the theatrical performance. It was only the 10th best-selling DVD of the year:

#1: The Incredibles (17.4)
#2: Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (10.4)
#3: Madagascar (10) (tie)
#3: Shark Tale (10) (tie)
#5: The Polar Express (8.1)
#6: Meet the Fockers (7.21)
#7: National Treasure (7.2)
#8: Cinderella (6.56)
#9: Ray (6.53)
#10: Batman Begins (6.15)

Based on Box Office Mojo's claim that the average ticket prices in 2005 were $6.40 you can estimate that about 32 million tickets were sold in the US, and I think the 32:6 tickets-to-DVD sales ratio actually supports my "die-hards seeing the movie repeatedly and buying the DVD" theory.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Great post Bill. I think you've more than proved that TDK will not be a financial success.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

This thread will really become fun in 8 months...

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

I'm more surprised that 8 of the top 9 didn't sell atleast twice as many as BB considering 5 of them are animated and have a much bigger market to sell to.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Also, BB on DVD was initially released in the middle of October of 2005, so only 10 weeks of sales account for that particular title's sales for that particular stat being bandied about as BB's appeal to only the "die-hards". It would be better to find out how many DVDs BB sold in 6-12 months, not just 2.5 months.

The Incredibles DVD sales were reported as being soft compared to other animated fare on DVD of years past. DVD sales have been softening in the past few years as discounting becomes prevalent, causing people to hold off buying DVD titles until they get discounted in weekly sales.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Well, "Revenge of the Sith" was released TWO WEEKS AFTER "Batman Begins" and managed to hit #2 for the year with nearly twice as many copies sold as "Batman Begins".

Also, the bulk of sales occur during that fourth quarter anyway, it's the time when most of the summer blockbusters are hitting video and even more importantly it's the Holiday season.

I also think it's pretty safe to assume that most copies were sold early on in the DVD's availability to the aforementioned die-hard fanbase that I believe drove the limited success of "Batman Begins".


"Batman Begins" was a financial success and I believe "The Dark Knight" will be a financial success, too.

I just think everything points to it being a much smaller success than you might think from looking online.

Based on internet posts it seems like "Batman Begins" is just unanimously-loved and that "The Dark Knight" is the most-anticipated movie of '08 but it's been proven time and time again that the internet isn't a reliable gauge of real-life interest in a movie, especially in a case where there's such an obvious overlap between this kind of movie-based internet activity and interest in the "Batman" character.

I'd be hard-pressed to deny that I'm a nerd so I'm not trying to be insulting when I say this but it's the truth, the internet is full of nerds and nerds luvs "Batman".

My basic point is this: who could honestly think "The Dark Knight" could gross as much or more than "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" when "Wedding Crashers" beat "Batman Begins" last time around?

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

What's really stupid is how these "nerds" think a movie will make $500 mil when they end up stealing the movie online rather than paying to see it on the big screen.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

But going by your logic, RotS should have done gangbusters on the DVD sales level, but its box office ticket/DVD sales ratio is 59.4/10.4 (5.71) while BB's is 32/6.15 (5.21). BB held its own w/r/t RotS considering the ticket-buying audience for each film in terms of DVD sales. Plus Star Wars has been a much more viable film franchise for those 7-10 years leading up to RotS (don't forget the re-release theatrically of the spruced up editions of Episode IV-VI, I didn't know anyone clamoring for more Batman films in the past decade before BB, especially not after the sour taste left by Batman and Robin). BB had to win back its audience through the quality of the product on the screen and word of mouth. At this point, it's earning more and more potential viewers of TDK through the marketing and the limited pedigree of BB for a good run in the summer of 2008. Like others have mentioned, TDK is positioned to have a good leggy run through the rest of the summer and some of the fall since the slate is devoid of blockbusters, time will tell if it succumbs to being a front-loaded success, or an enduring one in 2008.

Just my gut feeling, IJ&KOCS will be more of a front-loaded success, but not as leggy, not in today's movie-going climate. I can't say I have a strong premonition that TDK will out-gross IJ&KOCS, it probably won't, but it'll be closer than most movie box office prognosticator think it will, perhaps within $60 million (or 20%-25% of the winning BO total), which would be fine by me. But as a non-stockholder in either studios, it's all just good ol' fashioned box office chit-chat.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Well I'm convinced.

The Dark Knight will make be out of the theaters within a week, clearly the general audience has no interest in this character.

Bring back Shumacher. Maybe they can get Paris Hilton to play Poison Ivy next time out and Dane Cook as the Scarecrow. You know to really appeal to that teen demographic.

If the general audience would rather watch crap like The Mummy III ... really that's their loss as far as I'm concerned. Kudos to Warner Bros. for giving a director who has an actual vision a shot at this franchise rather than treating it like a cheap cash cow. I don't know if TDK will be as good as Batman Begins, but at least I get the sense here that there are people who care about this character and it's not being made by a committee of marketing execs.

Indiana Jones should be good, but really after The Phantom Menace, I'm not as enthusiastic that this is necessarily a guaranteed slam dunk either. The IJ fanbase is not nearly as rabid as the Star Wars fanbase, if it's not there up on the screen, that movie could fade very quickly too.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Let's not go insane here. The film will most definitely make a significant profit, and that is all that is needed to be a "financial success".

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

You want a prediction for TDK...simple.

Take the $205M gross...adjust for inflation. Multiply by 1.05 - that's the low end, IMO. It will gross more. Multiply the inflation adjusted BB total by 1.3 - that's the high end (about a 60M boost). In between is the reality. Probably closer to 1.1x, with very strong DVD and IMAX sales. VERY strong IMAX sales, even.

I think almost every BB fan has been realistic about that.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

what do you think will top January's box office?

IMDb - Now Playing in the U.S.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

I cringed when I saw the trailer for Meet The Spartans. It's a JSP movie for sure.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

I'm going to say that Cloverfield will be first and Rambo will be a closer second than people think. It's also worth noting that I will not be seeing Teeth... the very idea scares the hell out of me.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Why does the TDK's gross seem so terribly important?!

--
H

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Holadem,
It's probably the most important topic on the planet.

I don't know either, and I feel bad feeding it. I'll stop now...I promise

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

I don't believe it either. Who even knows about this film other than the Abrams groupies and a few of us Internet geeks?

Seems like another "Snakes on a Plane" to me.

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the "few" isn't that few anymore, it's a huge portion of the box office $

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i'm going to say that it does. the trailers are captivating enough.

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i can't remember what mi3 made, did it go past 100/200 mil? that's fairly accurate assessment of cloverfield. some will like JJ Abrams, some won't.

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As I recall, it topped out around $130M. But I think the relatively low gross was attributed to Tom Cruise's recent weirdness rather than anything to do with Abrams.

I actually thought it was the best film of the franchise once I caught it on DVD.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

A generic horror film that's currently earning a 0% on Rotten Tomatoes is on track for a $15 million + opening weekend? Rescue Dawn barely eclipsed $5 million during its entire run in theaters. Into the Wild and Waitress both struggled to get past the $15 million mark during their their runs. As Chuck Berry said long ago... "'C'est la vie,' say the old folks, it goes to show you never can tell."

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

I admit, everytime I see the commercials for "One Missed Call" I laugh.. with punchlines like:

"That's not my ringtone!"
"It went straight to voicemail!"

Yeesh...