2008 at the Box Office - Page 15

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Funny you should mention it. The biggest roadblock facing "Captain America" coming to the big screen within the next few years is that many within Marvel and Paramount (who have a distribution deal with the studio) think the movie will be a very tough sell overseas. Because of this, Cap may be introduced first in the 'Avengers' movie before getting a franchise of his own ala Wolverine.

"Thor", "The Avengers", and "Ant Man" are on the two studios immediate radar, along with the two sequels to "Iron Man" and the two 'X-Men Origin' flicks ('Wolverine' and 'Magneto'). Marvel has also put writers on another 'X-Men' feature that will focus on the younger mutants, as well as tentative planning for further 'Origin' films should 'Wolverine' (summer 2009) and 'Magneto' (summer 2010) prove successful.

And let's not forget that little 'Spider-Man' franchise. Marvel and Sony are rumored to be "zeroing" in on an outline for the next trilogy of movies, as well as a new director (Sam Raimi will serve as one of the producers for the time being) and new (cheaper and younger) leads.

2010 looks to be a pretty big year for Marvel as they will probably have four films in theaters that summer. "Iron Man 2" (Paramount), "Spider-Man 4" (Sony), "Thor" (Paramount), and "X-Men Origins: Magneto" (Fox).

Right now, the only thing on DC's calendar for 2010 is "Superman: The Man of Steel" (WB). With "Justice League" being shelved, DC and WB are currently attempting to do features on "The Flash", "Green Lantern", "Teen Titans", and "Wonder Woman". Christopher Nolan's third 'Batman' feature won't hit theaters until 2011.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Of all the big Hollywood directors, the military bends over backwards to provide Michael Bay with whatever he wants because his films are extremely pro-military. Just wait until you see the sort of hardware they're providing for him for "Transformers II". The sequel is going to be a lot bigger in terms of scope and hardware.

As for Marvel's just released schedule, I like that they are adding 'Avenger' to the 'Captain America' title. I also like that they are more or less using it as a launching pad to the July 11th 'Avengers' feature. Here are the heroes expected to appear in the movie...

-Ant Man
-Captain America
-Hulk (depending on what can be worked out with Universal)
-Iron Man
-Nick Fury
-Thor

Marvel and Paramount may add more (Black Panther, Black Widow, Wasp, etc.), but the above names are pretty much "locked". Marvel is obviously expecting the same kind of success they (and Fox) enjoyed with the 'X-Men' trilogy (earning $1.163 billion worldwide).

In any event, Marvel looks to be swimming in money for the foreseeable future if their upcoming slate of films matches (or exceeds) the success of "Iron Man". The studio has had far more hits than misses. 12 out of the 18 films bearing the Marvel brand have earned more than $100 million domestically, with 2 more topping the $70 million mark.

MARVEL BRAND
1 "Spider-Man" (Sony) $403,706,375 ($821,708,551)
2 "Spider-Man 2" (Sony) $373,585,825 ($783,766,341)
3 "Spider-Man 3" (Sony) $336,530,303 ($890,871,626)
4 "X-Men: The Last Stand" (Fox) $234,362,462 ($459,256,008)
5 "X2: X-Men United" (Fox) $214,949,694 ($407,557,613)
6 "X-Men" (Fox) $157,299,717 ($296,250,053)
7 "Fantastic Four" (Fox) $154,696,080 ($330,120,875)
8 "Hulk" (Universal) $132,177,234 ($245,360,480)
9 "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" (Fox) $131,921,738 ($288,565,730)
10 "Ghost Rider" (Sony) $115,802,596 ($228,738,393)
11 "Iron Man" (Marvel/Paramount) $104,250,000 ($201,000,000) and counting...
12 "Daredevil" (Fox) $102,543,518 ($179,179,718)
13 "Blade II" (New Line) $82,348,319 ($155,010,032)
14 "Blade" (New Line) $70,087,718 ($131,183,530)
15 "Blade: Trinity" (New Line) $52,411,906 ($128,905,366)
16 "The Punisher" (Lionsgate) $33,810,189 ($54,700,105)
17 "Elektra" (Fox) $24,409,722 ($56,681,566)
18 "Howard the Duck" (Universal) $16,295,774 ($37,962,774)

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Marvel decided to take the "Lucas" approach (i.e. Lucas' deal with Fox for the last five Star Wars movies) and finance their own movies because they simply didn't make much on the Fox (X-Men), New Line (Blade), or Sony (Spidey) films. "Iron Man" was the studio's first solo financed feature. Paramount will receive a distribution fee as well as profits from the DVD sales on all the Marvel films they release. Marvel also financed "The Incredible Hulk" with Universal retaining distribution rights.

Marvel will probably see a lot more coin from movies/DVD than they do from their comic book titles.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Chuck, I don't know what the current financial relationship is between Lee and Marvel, but he did sue them for about $5 billion last year. Terms of the suit (and subsequent settlement if one is reached) are confidential, but I think this is something that Marvel would want to go away as fast as possible because Lee is so high profile, on top of being hugely popular with the overall comic book/superhero fanbase (hence his nickname "The Man").

In spite of the lawsuit, Lee will continue to have cameos in the films based on the characters he created. The man is a living legend and a lot of people are making sick amounts of money on his creations. Its only right that he benefits financially from the billions that have been generated.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

The early line has "Iron Man" easily retaining the top spot with a Friday haul in the neighborhood of the $15 million, while "Speed Racer" and "What Happens in Vegas" were in a tight race for the #2 slot earning $6.5 and $6.2 million respectively.

Judging by these numbers, "Speed Racer" will be lucky to get out of the gates with a $25 million weekend haul. WB had hoped for no less than $30 million. On the other hand, Fox's "What Happens in Vegas" looks headed for a debut haul in the area of $17-$21 million. "Iron Man" will earn a second-weekend haul of about $45-$50 million.

The official studio estimates will be posted a later today.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Right now, the tracking suggests that 'Prince Caspian' will open stronger than the $65.5 million launch of the first 'Narnia' flick three years ago. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it debuted as high as the $75 million you're predicting.

Many are now speculating that "Speed Racer" will perform very much like "The Golden Compass" did, earning a disappointing domestic haul ($70.1 million) but pulling in blockbuster-like numbers overseas ($301.4 million translating to a worldwide mark of $371.5 million). In any event, the soft debut of "Speed Racer" has probably killed any hope the Wachowski brothers, producer Joel Silver, and WB had for a lucrative franchise.

On top of all this, I heard that the SR toys aren't flying off the shelves as hoped for either. So far, "The Dark Knight" and Indy IV toys are selling at much higher levels (especially with retailers having a hard time keeping Joker figures in stock).

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Friday Estimates

#1 "Iron Man" $15.3 million ($141.9 million) 57% Friday-to-Friday drop
#2 "What Happens in Vegas" $6.7 million
#3 "Speed Racer" $5.9 million
#4 "Made of Honor" $2.5 million ($21.1 million) 56% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Baby Mama" $1.9 million ($36.5 million) 46% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" $1.2 million ($48.1 million) 39% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay" $1.1 million ($28.6 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "The Forbidden Kingdom" $550K ($46.9 million) 53% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Prom Night" $370K ($42.1 million) 58% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Red Belt" $320K ($417K)
#11 "Nim's Island" $300K ($43.2 million) 54% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "21" $245K ($79.8 million) 62% Friday-to-Friday drop

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Thanks for pointing that out, its been fixed. Had a minor brain fart.

Looks like SR has become the summer's first high profile box office disappointment. A $20 million weekend will be tough to achieve.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Iron Man" $50.5 million ($177.1 million) -49%
#2 "Speed Racer" $20.2 million
#3 "What Happens in Vegas" $20.0 million
#4 "Made of Honor" $7.6 million ($26.3 million) -49%
#5 "Baby Mama" $5.8 million ($40.4 million) -43%
#6 "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" $3.8 million ($50.7 million) -38%
#7 "Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay" $3.2 million ($30.7 million) -48%
#8 "The Forbidden Kingdom" $1.9 million ($48.3 million) -55%
#9 "Nim's Island" $1.3 million ($44.3 million) -51%
#10 "Redbelt" $1.1 million ($1.2 million) +1,699%
#11 "Prom Night" $1.05 million ($42.8 million) -56%
#12 "21" $835K ($80.4 million) -58%

The industry enjoyed a very solid frame as business was up 24% compared to last year, as well as being an impressive 43% stronger than this weekend in '06. The top twelve tallied a spectacular $117.3 million, making this weekend the best second-weekend performance ever for the month of May (besting the $115.3 mark from 2002). This also marks only the fourth time ever that this weekend has produced top twelve earnings of more than $100 million.

2008's year-to-date domestic mark now stands at $3.046 billion. '08 is now tied with last year for having fastest trek to the $3 billion domestic mark. This year's mark was about even with last year's year-to-date haul of $2.056 billion, 6% stronger than '06 ($2.872 billion), up 12% over '05 ($2.715 billion), and about 2% better than '04 ($2.999 billion).

In terms of ticket sales, '08 has sold about 435 million admissions. Past years saw '07 selling about 448 million, '06 had moved 438 million, '05 had sold 423.5 million, while '04 was sitting on a massive total of 483 million sold admissions at this point.

Marvel/Paramount's "Iron Man" became the 14th film in history to have second-weekend earnings of more than $50 million as the movie had a moderate dip of 49%. The action flick looks headed for a final haul in the neighborhood of $275-$285 million. A sequel has already been set for a late April 2010 launch.

WB's "Speed Racer" may have become the first high profile casualty of the summer as it opened about $10 million below most industry predictions. The $120 million budgeted film's modest $5,604 average from its 3,606 theaters came in behind both "Iron Man" ($12,284 from 4,111 locations) and "What Happens in Vegas". With the 'Narnia' sequel hitting theaters next week, "Speed Racer" may have a very short shelf-life.

Fox's "What Happens in Vegas" had a very solid opening as it pulled in about $20 million. The film, which cost only $35 million to make, earned a per-theater average of $6,220 from its 3,215 locations, which was the second best of the top ten. Fox is expecting this one to have a leggy run in the coming weeks.

After a disastrous April session of business (which earned an abysmal $496.5 million total for the month), "Iron Man" has signaled what the industry hopes will be a major turnaround at the box office.

Next weekend will see Disney's "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" hit theaters. Right now, the movie is tracking extremely strong. Many are now predicting an opening weekend north of the $65.55 million debut of the previous 'Narnia' flick, 'The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe'. Whatever the case may be, expect a pretty major debut for 'Prince Caspian' as "Iron Man" slips to the second slot.