2008 at the Box Office - Page 8

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

That may be the case this weekend David.

Based on the strength of the early ticket sales, industry-wide predictions for the opening of the 'Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus' flick are now running in the $15-$20 million range. The movie will only be showing in 684 theaters.

It'll be interesting to see just how strong an opening the movie will have this weekend.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Yep, the movie is in 3D.

I'm thinking that if (and I stress if) the movie has a big opening the studio will keep it in theaters at least another week to "test the waters" so-to-speak.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Friday Estimates

#1 "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour" $8.6 million
#2 "The Eye" $5.0 million
#3 "27 Dresses" $2.75 million ($51.5 million) 36% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Meet the Spartans" $2.3 million ($23.5 million) 66% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Rambo" $2.2 million ($25.0 million) 67% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Juno" $2.1 million ($104.9 million) 27% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "The Bucket List" $2.0 million ($62.8 million) 29% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Untraceable" $1.7 million ($15.7 million) 57% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Cloverfield" $1.6 million ($68.7 million) 61% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "There Will Be Blood" $1.4 million ($17.8 million) 9% Friday-to-Friday increase
#11 "Over Her Dead Body" $1.3 million
#12 "Strange Wilderness" $1.2 million

At only 683 theaters, 'Hannah Montana' blew away the competition yesterday as it pulled in more than $8 million. The 3D concert flick looks headed for an opening weekend haul north of the $20 million mark. Amazing.

"The Eye" got off to a solid start is earned close to $5 million. This one should end up with a debut haul of about $12 million, which was on target with studio predictions.

Both "Meet the Spartans" and "Rambo" took steep 67% hits off of their paces from last weekend, while "27 Dresses", "Juno", "The Bucket List", and "There Will Be Blood" all continue to show strong legs.

"Cloverfield" continues its fast fade while both "Over Her Dead Body" and "Strange Wilderness" were met with lukewarm receptions from moviegoers.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

No problem. Good call by the way. I didn't foresee the 'Hannah Montana' flick doing this well. The movie looks headed for a $20 million-plus weekend from less than 700 theaters. In today's marketplace, that's really not supposed to happen. Crazy.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

'Hannah Montana' is looking at becoming only the second movie in history to open with more than $20 million while playing in less than 1,000 theaters. It will be joining "Fahrenheit 9/11" which pulled in $23.9 million from 868 theaters (giving it a monster average of $27,558).

As for "Cloverfield", I'm absolutely blown away at how much it fell apart after its opening weekend. With back to back weekends percentage falls of more than 60%, I think the studio should be very cautious in going forward with a sequel.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Yep. Ticket prices range from $15 to $24 bucks depending on what part of the country you live in. Despite the tickets being on the high end, it is still amazing that the movie is doing this well. Its playing in two locations near my house and the shows are sold out through tomorrow night.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

That's a great price for an IMAX theater. $12 bucks was the cheapest I've ever paid to see something on IMAX and that was nearly six years ago ('Attack of the Clones'). It cost me nearly $20 bucks apiece to see "Beowulf" and "I Am Legend" on IMAX.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

My bad. Totally forgot about 'Borat'.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Thanks for the vote of confidence.

And yes, this would be the first time in recent memory that something of this nature has ever happened. Expect Miley Cyrus' stock to go through the roof as a result of this movie's phenomenal opening.

And you're right about "The Spiderwick Chronicles" (as well as some prints of "Jumper" from what I've heard) taking up a vast majority of the digital/IMAX screens nationwide. That weekend will also have the first Indy IV trailer hitting the big screen (likely attached to most prints of Paramount's own 'Spiderwick Chronicles').

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both of Worlds Concert Tour" $29.0 million
#2 "The Eye" 13.1 million
#3 "27 Dresses" $8.4 million ($57.1 million) -37%
#4 "Juno" $7.45 million ($110.3 million) -27%
#5 "Meet the Spartans" $7.1 million ($28.3 million) -62%
#6 "Rambo" $7.0 million ($29.8 million) -62%
#7 "The Bucket List" $6.85 million ($67.7 million) -35%
#8 "Untraceable" $5.4 million ($19.5 million) -52%
#9 "Cloverfield" $4.9 million ($72.0 million) -62%
#10 "There Will Be Blood" $4.8 million ($21.1 million) -2%
#11 "Over Her Dead Body" $4.6 million
#12 "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" $3.054 million ($210.0 million) -38%

Thanks to the unexpectedly potent start of the 'Hannah Montana' concert flick, the box office was up a stellar 42% compared to last year, as well as being 23% stronger than this frame in '06. Also, for the first time in history the first five weeks of the year saw each respective top twelve pull in more than $100 million.

The $101.5 million haul this weekend ranks as the second best first-weekend February gross in history, trailing only the $102.1 million performance of week one in February of '03 (Paramount's "How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days" was the #1 movie).

2008's year-to-date gross now stands at a towering $965.8 million, which is 19% stronger than last year's take ($812.8 million), a 17% improvement over '06 ($826.4 million), and up a massive 24% over both '05 ($778.0 million) and '04 ($778.9 million). This time next weekend the year will have passed the $1 billion plateau, marking the fastest time in history for a year to hit ten figures.

Blowing away industry expectations, as well as breaking records this weekend, was Disney's "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour". The 3D concert presentation pulled in $29 million this weekend from only 683 theaters, giving it a monstrous average of $42,459.

The movie earned the best per-theater average of any film released to more than 600 theaters, as well as the biggest opening ever for a concert movie. The film also ranks as the biggest opener during a Super Bowl weekend, besting the $21.6 million start of "When a Stranger Calls" two years ago.

To no one's surprise Disney has decided to extend the run of the movie to at least next weekend. There is even talk that the movie will remain in theaters through the rest of February. Regardless of what the studio decides, 'Hannah Montana' has proven to be a major success despite the high cost of the tickets (ranging from $12-$20 bucks nationwide).

Lionsgate's "The Eye" took the second slot this weekend with a solid haul of more than $13 million. The film's sturdy per-theater average of $5,357 from its 2,436 locations was the second best of the top ten. The movie probably won't have the best staying power, but will still end up being very profitable for the studio.

Fox's "27 Dresses" has now tallied more than $57 million as it continues to show strong legs. The same can be said for Fox Searchlight's Oscar-hopeful "Juno" as it continues its tear through the box office. The little-movie-that-could has now pulled $110.3 million.

Fox's "Meet the Spartans" and Lionsgate's "Rambo" both suffered steep 62% hits this weekend. Both films should top out in the neighborhood of $40-$50 million.

WB's "The Bucket List" continues to enjoy a solid run in theaters as it has now earned close to $70 million. Sony's "Untraceable" was off by 52% and is sitting on a domestic haul of nearly $20 million. Look for this one to end its run in the area of $30-$40 million.

Paramount's "Cloverfield" has now tallied close to $72 million despite its faster-than-anticipated fade. Paramount Vantage's Oscar-hopeful "There Will Be Blood" is now sitting on a gross of $21.1 million.

Both New Line's "Over Her Dead Body" and Paramount Classics' "Strange Wilderness" debuted with lukewarm results, pulling in $4.6 million and $3.1 million respectively. Both had pitiful respective averages of $2,326 (from 1,977 locations) and $2,524 (from 1,208 locations).

Domestic Grosses of the Five Best Picture Nominees thus far...
"Atonement" (Focus Features) $42.2 million
"Juno" (Fox Searchlight) $110.3 million
"Michael Clayton" (WB) $44.2 million
"No Country for Old Men" (Paramount Vantage/Weinstein Co.) $55.1 million
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage/Weinstein Co.) $21.1 million

Next weekend will see three new films hit theaters. WB's "Fool's Gold", Universal's "Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins", and Picturehouse's "Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights- From Hollywood to the Heartland" all invade multiplexes.

The general consensus is that the battle for #1 (depending on how much steam 'Hannah Montana' loses next weekend) will be between the action/comedy "Fool's Gold" (which stars Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson) and the comedy "Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins" (starring funnyman Martin Lawrence).

The industry is enjoying an unprecedented hot streak right now and next weekend should keep the momentum going as the industry looks to have a sixth consecutive 100 million-plus performance from the top twelve. This is typical during the summer and holiday months, but pretty much an anomaly for the January-thru-February frame.

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

If Disney does extend the movie pass next weekend, I think a lot of theaters will opt to cut back on the number of shows for 'Hannah Montana' to accommodate "The Spiderwick Chronicles" (and possibly "Jumper" as well).

It really depends on how strong the movie performs next weekend. If it continues to produce big numbers than Disney will probably keep it in theaters until the first week of next month.