Re: 2008 at the Box Office
Weekend Estimates
#1 "Meet the Spartans" $18.7 million
#2 "Rambo" $18.2 million
#3 "27 Dresses" $13.6 million ($45.3 million) -41%
#4 "Cloverfield" $12.7 million ($64.3 million) -68%
#5 "Untraceable" $11.2 million
#6 "Juno" $10.3 million ($100.2 million) +4%
#7 "The Bucket List" $10.2 million ($57.7 million) -28%
#8 "There Will Be Blood" $4.9 million ($14.8 million) +66%
#9 "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" $4.7 million ($205.4 million) -38%
#10 "Mad Money" $4.61 million ($15.3 million) -40%
#11 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $4.60 million ($204.2 million) -35%
#12 "How She Move" $4.2 million
Business continued to be brisk for the industry as the top ten showed a nearly 33% improvement over last year's numbers. Compared to '06, business was up about 17%. Overall, the top twelve films pulled in a stellar $117.8 million. This marks the first time in history that the month of January has had every top twelve finish during its month tally more than $100 million.
With four days to go in the month, January '08 has earned a whopping $803.4 million, marking the first time in history that a January frame has topped the $800 million mark. The previous high for a January was in '06, when the month yielded a $777.3 million return.
Compared to past years, 2008's year-to-date gross represents a 19% increase over last year ($674.7 million), up 20% over '06 ($669.8 million), a massive 29% bump over '05 ($623.1 million), and a 23% improvement over '04 ($654.2 million).
Fox's "Meet the Spartans" surprised many within the industry as it debuted in the top spot. Many expected a battle between "Cloverfield" and "Rambo", but the comedy/spoof got out of the gates with a near $19 million haul. The film also enjoyed an 11% Friday-to-Saturday bump in business indicating that this one could end up having a very strong run in theaters. 'Spartans' earned a solid average of $7,188 from its 2,605 theaters.
Coming in close behind was Lionsgate's/Weinstein's "Rambo". The fourth flick of the once popular franchise pulled in a stellar haul of $18.2 million. For star and director Sylvester Stallone, this marks the fourth best opening of his long career, trailing the $33.4 million start of "Spy Kids 3D: Game Over" (from '03), the $20.2 million debut of "Rambo: First Blood Part II" (about a $39 million tick today), and the $19.9 million (just over $38 million today) opening of "Rocky IV" (both opened in '85).
The $18 million start for "Rambo" also represents the biggest opening Stallone has had as the headlining star since the mid-'80s. His last flick, "Rocky Balboa", opened with $12.2 million before legging its way to a stellar final domestic haul of $70.3 million. The producers feel that the same could be in store for "Rambo" (which earns its R rating by the way). The action flick's per-theater average of $6,597 from its 2,751 locations was the second best of the top twelve.
Fox's "27 Dresses" took a moderate drop of 41% and has so far tallied more than $45 million. Look for this one to top out in the neighborhood north of the $80 million plateau, giving Fox a nice return on their $30 million investment.
Another surprising development this weekend was the disastrous 68% collapse of last week's box office champ "Cloverfield". Still, the $25 million movie has now pulled in more than $64 million and is looking at a final gross in the area of $90 million. With such a steep decline, it is seriously doubtful that this one will get to the century mark.
Sony's "Untraceable" got off to a much more potent start than most believed as it opened with just over $11 million. The $35 million thriller even enjoyed an impressive 28% Friday-to-Saturday increase in business. The movie earned a solid average of $4,729 from its 2,368 theaters.
Four-time Oscar nominee "Juno" enjoyed a 4% bump in business this weekend as the comedy smash passed the century mark. "Juno" is far and away the most successful film of the five nominated movies for Best Picture. This marks the first time in history that Fox Searchlight has had a film earn more than $100 million.
WB's "The Bucket List" continues to show sturdy legs as it was off by only 28%. With more than $57 million banked thus far, this one should top out in the area of $85-$95, making the $45 million budgeted flick a profitable hit for the studio.
Eight-time Oscar nominee "There Will Be Blood" also enjoyed a post-nomination bump in business to the tune of 66%. The fact that the movie entered 496 more theaters also didn't hurt. The film's domestic haul now stands at $14.8 million.
Disney's "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" has now pulled in $205.4 million. Overture's "Mad Money" was off a moderate 40% and has now earned $15.3 million. Look for this one to top out with about $30 million. Fox's "Alvin & the Chipmunks" topped the double-century mark this weekend, bringing its tally to a phenomenal $204.2 million. Paramount Vantage's "How She Move" crashed and burned as it earned only $4.2 million this weekend, giving it a paltry per-theater average of $2,715 from its 1,531 locations.
Focus Features' "Atonement" didn't cash in on its seven Oscar nods as it took a 14% dip in business, despite entering 109 more locations (its now playing in 1,400 theaters).
That wasn't the case for Eight-time nominee "No Country for Old Men", which entered 289 more theaters (its now playing in 1,107 locations) and saw business increase a whopping 106%. The film has now earned $52 million. 'No Country' is the second most successful movie of the five nominees. The film also increased its Oscar hopes last night as directors Joel and Ethan Coen won the top prize from the DGA (Directors Guild Association). 15 of the previous 20 winners of the DGA award went on to take the Oscar for Best Director.
Seven-time nominee "Michael Clayton" enjoyed an even bigger bump as it was launched in 1,102 theaters, showing a monster 4,505% improvement. That film is currently sitting on a domestic mark of $41.5 million.
"U2 3D" opened in 61 IMAX theaters across the country and pulled in $946K, giving it a monster average of $15,508.
Next weekend will see the Super Bowl take all the headlines as the industry prepares for what they believe will be the first slow weekend of the year. In spite of this, four new releases will hit theaters. Lionsgate's "The Eye", New Line's "Over Her Dead Body", Paramount's "Strange Wilderness", and Disney's "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour".
Look for "The Eye" to put up the strongest challenge for #1 as "Meet the Spartans" attempts to become the first '08 release to repeat as the nation's top box office attraction.
Only opening in 643 theaters is going to hurt its potential, but I reiterate that this will be the shocker of the weekend.
