Warner to pick one format?  

Re: Warner to pick one format?

I could be way off base, but it seems obvious to me that people are misreading Dan Silverberg's comments a bit. First, for some context, this is quoted from the link above:

(Note: Some were initially disputing, based on paragraph structure, whether the "we can definitely talk Blu-Ray" comment was even made by Silverberg. It's been comfirmed by the writer of the article that Silverberg DID make the comment.)

However, it seems clear to me, based on that same paragraph structure in the Home Media Magazine report and on the context, that the "We can definitely talk Blu-ray. We are committed to the format" portion of his comments was not made immediately in conjunction with the longer quote. It reads to me like he made his initial comments and then fielded a question from someone, probably something to the effect of (and with a wink and a nudge), "So, having said that, can we talk Blu-Ray?" And then came the second quote that seems to bear the entire weight of the Blu-Ray speculation. And at a Blu-Ray event prior to any strategy-shifting announcements, the "we can definitely talk..." comment is exactly what any PR person would say to such a question.

There are rumors of a WB press release tomorrow, and the above quotes make it pretty clear that they're going to make some shift soon. But I call the odds on which way right now 50/50.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

I don't pretend to have any direct knowledge of what they're going to do, however it would seem to me that his comments about both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD being affordable are telling. The price of the hardware is HD-DVDs one big advantage and he just negated that argument by putting them on the same playing field in that sentence.

Plus, with Nickerson resigning 3 days after the Paramount annoucement, it just seems to me like they could be leaning more towards Blu-Ray. But who knows, I could be totally off base here. We'll see.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

When Warner makes thier official announcement, if one is indeed coming soon, then and only then will it hold weight for me. These stories come along too often and have been very misleading to say the least. No real news is here for me until confirmation by Warner.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Hmmm… Odds of this happening… “2-1”

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Well said.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

This is whole thing about WB going Blu-ray sounds like the Kobe rumor going to Chicago on Nov 1st. Hmm....

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Lest we forget ...


Toshiba and Microsoft Announce Plans to Form Advanced Interactivity Consortium


Should be interesting tomorrow!!!

Phil

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Man just pick an effin' side already! I'm a PS3 owner and even if HD-DVD wins, the hardware prices are so low I will just go out and buy one!

This war is killing me. Not only because of the whole exclusive studio support (on both sides) but you know that every studio is holding off on releasing until this war is decided.

Heck, even if I backed the wrong horse, at this point I don't care anymore. I just want the best movies in the best possible format, and right now I don't care if it's BD or HD-DVD. Just pick a side and open the new release and catalog floodgates!

And for the record, yes I know it won't be a 180 degree turnaround, but I'm convinced that while HD discs may not ever reach DVD market penetration, it will eclipse LD and be a viable format that studios will support.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

That's good enough for me! I've never demanded that HD formats achieve DVD-type penetration.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Ditto. less chance of J6p mucking up the format with their ignorant wants for pan and scan. We're already seeing some of this at this stage. It will get MUCH MUCH MUCH worse if BR or HD goes main stream.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

The problem is that today's corporate world may not allow for a lower-level more niche-like format like LD was. The studios are addicted to the kind of volume and profits generated by DVD and will likely want a similar model for HD media, or they may abandon it altogether.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

I agree, which is why I said it would surpass LD.

There is still room for a niche market to be profitable (check out Apple in computers). But the numbers need to be higher than what LD was. There's, what, 300,000,000 people in the US alone? Get 5% to buy HD and that's 7.5 million. 10% and you're at 30 million. Those kind of numbers can sustain an industry, at least in its infancy stages.

And as quality of HDTVs goes up, while price goes down (a trend that has been borne out by the electronics industry since it was born), and those numbers are bound to go up. It's not a question of if, but when. And the trick is to have a unified HD disc front to help push it along.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

That's a very good point. I believe Hd arrived too soon for maximum profit.

I'm pretty sure 95% of consumers are perfectly happy with standard dvd, and will be for a long while yet. The laserdisc crowd(us) will continue to support the forrmats, but I really don't think studios will be happy with the overall sales. If there is a winner in the format war, I think the losing side will sleep better at night, and have more of a "thank goodness it's over" outlook on the matter.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

It also helps that most tv's on the market are HD. But there is a huge problem I think were all ignoring. I own 700 dvd's. Of those I would buy over again in the HD format, would be under 20. Most people who collect dvd's I feel are of the same opinion. We have established a good dvd collection, and Hd is for only the films we must have. So all the studio re-releases or upgrades if you will, are already facing the issue of how they can get consumers to re-buy a movie they already own, and are content with. The odds are already stacked against them in this aspect.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

In which case, it's a good thing (strike notwithstanding) that they keep making new movies. Still, I think the studios have shown some skill at getting people to buy the same material multiple times; they'll just count on selling an HD version the next time a movie's time comes up in the Special Edition cycle.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

I've stopped counting but I'm somewhere in that region as well for DVD ownership (certainly more than 600, not sure about 700). And I thought the same thing. And I now own over 50 BDs. And if studios released more, I would buy more. If I were dual format capable, I'd probably buy just as many HD-DVD exclusives. It's a disease.

Another thing to consider, people that 500+ of DVDs are the minority. I have a lot of friends who collect DVD, and I can say that less than 1 in 10 have anywhere near my total. The others come in at between 50-200. So the market will be there for them.

And as Jason said, it's a good thing they're still making movies

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Amen to that!

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Yeah, the new releases are going to be the hot ticket for the Hd formats. Re-releases of older films probably not so much. I love the Hd formats, but I can honestly say that of the Hd discs I own, only a couple have really impressed me. They all are better than what I've seen before on dvd, but most of them just slightly. Nothing like the vhs to laserdisc of my movie collecting days. In those days, Laserdisc films I bought were almost always worlds better than the vhs counterparts. The Hd market so far, for me anyway has been hit, and miss.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

While I do enjoy new films there's probably only a dozen on average each year that I have the desire to buy (probably half of those I'd consider must own).

Catalog titles are my bread and butter so if these HD formats become only about the new releases I think I'll lose interest and move on to another hobby.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Could not agree more. Not many new releases really excite me much, but give some classic (or not so classic) catalog titles and I am there.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

So...


Everywhere else the internet is ablaze with rumors about Toshiba selling their players cheap because Warner is dumping sides, and this and that.


It's funny, oh yeah, and painful to read. Seriously, I hate the internet.


But it's like a drug, and you can't walk away from it.


Hi Def Digest's forums are a crap hole. I was lurking, and puking.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Warner has stated that if these cheap players don't increase the amount of HD software sales then that's that.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...2bb7aed90a45d6

Figure at CES if the sales numbers don't go the HD route and show progress, they'll announce their headed to BR only.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Right.


Toshiba isn't selling to cut their losses, they're selling to entice Warner and higher disc Sales.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Since the majority of these new sub $200 players are likely to be sold to current HD DVD owners (who want to add a player to another room or supplant a first gen model) or else to Bd owners who will go dual format but still favor Bd in case of a dual format release- I think HD DVD is in a bit of dire straights...if that is in fact what Warner is seriously contemplating.

the only thing that might mitigate that is if Sony does away with rep subsidies and the 'real' cost of Bd production is too high in the near term.

I'm sure the studios and CE manufacturers would have been just fine with a format that hovered at niche status for 5-10 years until it slowly superceded the current standard. But I'm sure the intention was that the niche was going to exist with prices falling very slowly over the long term, and they would be able to whack the early adopters from both the hardware and the software fronts.
But HD DVD came in and totally queered the deal. They both have to essentially work harder to make less (just like the rest of us, poor things)- and yet the base isn't likely to expand at any faster a rate with these lower prices because there is really only a small pool of consumers who actually value this technology.

In fact, it's probably not that much bigger a pool than the people who would have bought in at double or triple the cost.
For the people that actually want and will buy into this technology now- $500 was probably the magic number.

we'll see, but I just don't expect the HD DVD prices to add a significant amount of software buying enthusiasts to the rolls.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

After my initial complaining about the HTF stance on the format war, I've actually come to enjoy the changes made by restricting that talk to one of the two assigned threads. However, lately I have been a bit confused by the seemingly inconsistent handling of this policy. Namely, why hasn't this thread been merged with the Industry/Retailer/Studio Support thread? Why is there a new Transformers thread every time I turned around with the most recent one listing the same information that was in a previously locked thread?

Listen, I lean BD, its no secret, but I've come to the point where I've learned to accept that I'm going to have two HD formats in my house for the forseeable future; so please know that I'm not trying to begrudge HD DVD some good news, but I have actually come to enjoy being able to come into this forum and not be inundated with format war threads by choosing to staying out of the assigned threads. If the policy isn't handled strickly that becomes less likely.

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Back when it was rumored that Warner was going to go HDDVD exclusive, Bill Hunt was yelling at the top of his lungs to petition Warner to stay format neutral. Is he still doing that?

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Why would he? The Paramount move hurt consumers by allowing the fire of the format war to heat up again. Warner going Blu-ray could effectively end it and consumer HD confusion. Only if they went HD DVD would it really be terrible because there would be like a 50-50 split and the war would rage on until both formats die a slow, agonizing death.

And by consumer I mean general public. It's pretty much the enthusiasts who are enjoying HD now, especially HD DVD, and it's price tag sure doesn't stop them from going format neutral. But the common man wants to save those couple hundred dollars and have only one player.

I was thinking about those $99 Toshibas. Won't that hurt HD DVD sales because the buyers will say, "the software costs 25% of the hardware!! No thank you!"

Re: Warner to pick one format?

Oh I don't know... possibly because he posted here on HTF that his reaction would be EXACTLY the same if Warner went BR exclusive, claiming that the basis for his opposition to such exclusivity is that a studio should NEVER flip flop on whether or not it's exclusive. And if he says it, it must be true, yes?