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Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

post #1 of 38
8/22/07 at 3:23pm
Thread Starter 
In all the news in the past few days about Paramount going HD-DVD exclusive and dragging this war for another 18 months or so, i'ved heard lots of things that "downloading movies" will be the winner. Or that Hollywood with Hi-Def has a last chance with pre-packaged optical media.

Now i'm not sure about you guys but I for one will not go downloading for several reasons.

- Size of downloads - if downloading is to become serious then they have to be very high quality (around 20+gigs). Now this poses a problem or 2, not only will it take a while to get the file (less for some more for others ) but ISP's who have Download caps or Download thottles when a certain amount has been downloaded will be under pressure in terms of reducing costs / there servers being hammered.

- Collectibilty - too me there's nothing like having a Shelf of 2 (or 10) full of DVD's you can peruse at your leisure. Downloading takes this collectibity away and makes it just another "digital" 0/1 on your Hard Drive.

- Cost - Although cost of these would be lower due to no packaging required, less overheads etc - will the hidden costs of Downloading 100's of gigs for a few movies be leveled from your ISP's?

- Quality - Higher compression? To reduce file sizes will higher compression be used? Thereby reduced quality and the whole point of HD?

Anyway if these 2 HD Optical continue to fight it out (if you can call 2 optical discs a "fight") then in my opinion DVD will continue to dominate - downloading HD movies unlike downloading music albums are vastly larger in size. And not sure if it's same in the USA but here in the UK downloading HD movies WILL NOT take off as speeds and the heavy usage caps prevent even more than a few to be downloaded (or should say once they appear (if))

Just my 2 cents not sure if this is the right forum to post this in so move if required..
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post #2 of 38
8/22/07 at 3:31pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

I don't support downloads for the above mentioned reasons plus the cost of local storage space (read: hdd) would eat me alive.
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post #3 of 38
8/22/07 at 3:52pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Damian,

You said a mouthful.

As much as Hollywood is pushing for downloadable fare,
most of us will not be supporting it for the reasons you mentioned.

One studio exec told me that they could cater to the download
community by providing just the film. Collectors could buy the
disk for the film and supplements.

I suppose both formats could coexist, but quite frankly, I haven't
given much thought to it.
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post #4 of 38
8/22/07 at 3:56pm
Thread Starter 

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Been a lurker here for ages so thought i'd finally speak. This reminds me of the early DivX / DVD session. But I guess i answered my own concerns in my original post
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post #5 of 38
8/22/07 at 4:06pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

I think downloads may replace the rental market, and that may not be such a bad thing. But I don't think it will ever replace the feeling that people want to own the product.

You are right on the money with collectibity. Look at the Blade Runner briefcase set with all its extra goodies.

Doug
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post #6 of 38
8/22/07 at 4:07pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Looking forward to the sob stories when hard drives go kaput (and they will, just a matter of time), taking down a sizable collection of downloads (and who wants to re-download 20-40GB of files per film?). No thanks.
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post #7 of 38
8/22/07 at 4:09pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick Sun
Looking forward to the sob stories when hard drives go kaput, taking down a sizable collection of downloads (and who wants to re-download 20-40GB of files per film?). No thanks.


Good point. And how do you chose which movie you want to delete when you run out of hard drive space and want to add another movie to your collection.

Doug
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post #8 of 38
8/22/07 at 4:12pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Even without the pay-per-view model (something smells like DIVX) I'll never go the download route.

Here's a prime example:

I had all 6 of the Star Wars films recorded in glorious High Def from HBO HD and stored on my HD DVR unit. One day my DVR Hard drive crashed (as hard drives tend to do), and there goes the Star Wars films on HD.

Now imagine having a whole movie collection that you paid for via download at the mercy of your hard drive, not to mention viruses, etc. Nooooooooooooooo thanks.

[EDIT]

Patrick Sun already made this point I see.
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post #9 of 38
8/22/07 at 4:22pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Fortunately, the points that you make about downloading are why it will take a long time to have that dark day come.
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post #10 of 38
8/22/07 at 5:47pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

If the quality of the ITunes movement proves to be a harbinger of things to come, count me out. The thing is, most people won't even realize they'd be getting a compromised product, quality-wise, just as they don't when it comes to downloading music. As long as it's quick and convenient, the general populace won't care.
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post #11 of 38
8/22/07 at 5:52pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrettGallman
If the quality of the ITunes movement proves to be a harbinger of things to come, count me out. The thing is, most people won't even realize they'd be getting a compromised product, quality-wise, just as they don't when it comes to downloading music. As long as it's quick and convenient, the general populace won't care.


The only thing I'm into more, if not equally, is collecting music.


I refuse to download CD's (as many of you do) and I always buy them to support my favorite bands (many of which are barely making enough to make a living doing what they're doine).

I have 10 times the amount of CD's that I do movies.
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post #12 of 38
8/22/07 at 6:44pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

I think the only real hurdle in Online HD is how far behind the US is in bandwidth. If not for that issue, I think the technology is there to make all the doubters happily turn to the Internet for their movies without worry.
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post #13 of 38
8/22/07 at 7:06pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

It's not just about bandwidth, but storage, and the "longevity" of storage. For high-def films that require copious amounts of hard drive space, it's simply not a practical solution to delivering films in high-def, except for the rental model (like 24-48 hours to view after being downloaded and then the film gets deleted off the hard drive). That doesn't interest me, but I'm sure others might feel differently.
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post #14 of 38
8/22/07 at 7:19pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

If anyone here has messed around with Ondemand, I believe that service has real possibilities. Imagine a future where instead of choosing, say, from the current 50 movies, there are closer to 500, or even 5000. And instead of mostly Standard Def and a few low bitrate HD, they up the bandwidth to all high bitrate HD.

I think this would be a situation where physical media becomes less important. If the price was reasonable (free with cable service?, $10/month unlimited?, $2 to $3 per movie?), I can see myself not bothering owning all but the most desired movies.
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post #15 of 38
8/22/07 at 7:32pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

If the choice comes between only getting a movie via some DRM-restricted download and not seeing the movie at all, I guess I'll just have to live without it.

I've never downloaded music and I never expect to. Of course, my most recent music purchase (last week) was for four SACD's.
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post #16 of 38
8/22/07 at 7:55pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

For me, it's not a matter of utilitarian concerns. Even if there were some way for an On Demand service to provide the same amount of PQ and AQ as physical media, I'd still prefer the latter. I like owning a physical copy and being able to see it on my shelf. For me, it's a matter of collecting.
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post #17 of 38
8/22/07 at 8:19pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Here's the best "pro" download argument I've ever read. It comes from a friend on another forum.

"If you told me 15 years ago that grade-schoolers would be using cell-phones to send each other typed messages, I'd have called you ****ing crazy. If you had told me they'd also be surfing something called "the internet" and downloading whole music albums onto said personal phones (back before PCs even had more than a dozen gigs of RAM - if that - to their name and still used floppy drives), I'd have called the men in white coats myself.

15 years ago, not many people knew what a hard-drive was, let alone thought of using them in videogame consoles. Now my XBOX 360's HDD makes my first PCs look like a joke, and I can download 200 in HD RIGHT NOW for all of 5.3 GB and own it forever. Now Apple's put unheard-of storage and music playback ability into a cell-phone that gets the "same" internet as my laptop (speaking of things no one had 10 years ago) - how long before they think of the iTV? They already offer movies on their iPods anyway. How long before ANYONE thinks of putting a hard-drive in a television set? Or just builds a better TiVo in corporating an HDD, especially with digital cable and HD broadcasts becoming more and more prevalent.

And why wouldn't people have rooms of HDDs containing their movie collections? I packed up a half-dozen boxes of DVDs when I moved to my new appartment, and they take up five shelves of space in my living room. We can already see designs where hard-drives are removable, like the 360, and why wouldn't those work with TV sets that are sold with or an optional add-on that can be switched out? People did it with memory cards for 10 years. They've had no problems changing disks over the last 10 years of DVD usage, only this means you have to change something out much less often. And it would be less **** to have to move around. People like that. You don't think CDs beat out vinyl because they sound better do you?

That's not even mentioning the money it would save studios on manufacturing and distribution, or the money they could make on a micro-transaction-esque handling of extras and director's cuts for released films. It would also mean a better deal for the consumer; not everyone wants to pay the $25 for the Collector's Edition of the film - some folks just want to slap down $10 and get the movie. And don't forget additional consumer benefits, like not having to buy a $1000 HD player to go along with your $2000 HDTV. And a DVD tray would just be one less thing a console manufacturer would have to pay for if everything was handled through the internet and a hard-drive. I mean, those folks do still like money right?

And so many people say "well more people would need to get broadband," but the increase in recent years in the rate of adoption for high-speed internet has been HUGE. Ask yourself, who the hell was even online 15 years ago? How many of the folks online 5 years ago had broadband connections compared to those who do now? Not EVERYONE is online, but if you look at the amount of shopping that was done online last holiday season vs. 5 years ago, you'll see we're getting closer every year. Things change FAST when it comes to this particular area of technology. With different companies trying to sell you on DSL vs. Cable vs. the Matrix, it's getting easier and cheaper to get broadband no matter where you look. Apartment complexes have started offering high-speed internet rolled into the rent bill, and free Wifi is available at places like StarBucks and Burger King nationwide. Who says you have to do all this at home when you could bring your laptop to lunch and get a Whopper and the new James Bond at the same time? It may take a while, but then again, the telephone wasn't in every house in the country the day after it was put up for sale. And its successor (the cell) took a lot less time to penetrate the population.

So it all depends on what you mean by "soon." This whole digital distribution thing is already available for games (Steam, Virtual Console, XBLArcade, etc.) and movies, and already made it huge in music (well, hugest anyway). And things just keep happening faster every time we hit a new decade. Three decades ago, there wasn't mass-market film storage/playback format at all. Since then we've seen VHS, BetaMax, laser-disk, DVD, and now HD-DVD and BluRay - half of those in the last decade alone (that's not even counting game storage). The quest for the most consumer-friendly and high-quality media storage has been something of a grail quest since the 80's, which is why the HD format war started in the first place. Do you really think it'll take more than 15-20 years for digital distribution to be the most profitable and most consumer-friendly way to get the media to the buyers?

Maybe if the advancement of technology, the adoption of high-speed internet, and the further integration of digital distribution already available slows down. But I doubt that - really, in 1997, who'd have figured that DVD would have overtaken an established format like VHS in less than half a decade after VHS had been king since the 80's? Personally, with crap like the most recent exclusivity coup in the format war, I'm willing to take the gamble and wait it out. Until this sorry excuse for a pissing contest is resolved OR another method of getting HD becomes available, I'll just stick to DVD.

And I'm betting it won't be long before the latter."
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post #18 of 38
8/22/07 at 10:58pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

I simply don't see it happening in the short term. Someone has to make a device dedicated to that task or combo'd with the abilities of a cable HD-PVR. The 360 or PS3 is not that device as I doubt you could convince many above 40 that they are serious multimedia machines. My best guess is that MS will not be first to market with such a device, it'll be a partnership with PVR manufacturers, cable companies, and movie studios.

The current stumbing blocks are download speed and HDD space. Beyond that movie studios are too happy with the last decade of physical disc revenue to give it up on something unproven. If they can have a repeat of DVD with BR or HD-DVD they are more than happy to support those formats. In the short term DDs are small supplements to income not a driving revenue stream.
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post #19 of 38
8/23/07 at 6:05am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Quote:
I think downloads may replace the rental market, and that may not be such a bad thing. But I don't think it will ever replace the feeling that people want to own the product.

This adequately sums up my position on this issue as well.

For me personally, I could see using downloads in place of rentals, but only if the quality was comparable to HDM (i.e. not 720p vs. 1080p, not overly compressed, etc.). If not, I would continue renting disc-based media from places like Blockbuster Online and Netflix for as long as they offered the service.
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post #20 of 38
8/23/07 at 6:17am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

My main problem with the digital route is that I like the idea of owning a movie that I can watch whenever I want. Any of the download services are likely to be PPV only, which just rubs me the wrong way. If I could get a full HD version of a film without DRM that I could access using a decent interface, I'd be willing to go that way, but somehow I don't see that happening. Yes, hard drives are getting cheaper, but it'd still mean setting up a server with a few terrabytes to hold all the content, which with a proper RAID array can get pricey.
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post #21 of 38
8/23/07 at 6:31am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

I think most of the disdain for downloads comes from the wrong-headed assumption that it will happen with current technology and bandwidth. It won't; it will happen with the broadband and solid state hard drives we have five years from now. And I half-suspect the DRM will be less nightmarish than it is now; we're already seeing the music companies start selling unlocked files.

I think I'm past the need to have a physical thing on my shelf. An entire wall in my back room is given over to my DVD collection, and I dread the thought of having to move it again. Having it hypothetically all on a couple of solid-state storage devices, backed up, searchable, and potentially even upgradeable sounds fantastic.
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post #22 of 38
8/23/07 at 6:40am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim_K
Even without the pay-per-view model (something smells like DIVX) I'll never go the download route.

Same here. This will never going to happen for me.

It´s just sad if this is the "main future strategy" for certain (*kröhöm*) companies.. F downloading!
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post #23 of 38
8/23/07 at 7:57am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Conway
Here's the best "pro" download argument I've ever read. It comes from a friend on another forum. (snip)

Brandon, I make your friend absolutely right. Don't get me wrong, I'm as much a collector as others, but I'd be all for it once the technology comes (and it surely will come) to be able to download HD-quality movies that are no more compressed than either of the HD formats, and to back them up or retrieve them in case of hard drive failure, on a "buy once, own forever" basis.

Pay-per-view? Doesn't have to be, the studios are not fools; they won't try to force people onto a rental model if there is sufficient call for "owning" the download, and they will certainly want to cater for all types of revenue stream.

Speed of download? Irrelevant. If I decide to buy a film today, I've either got to go out to the shop to buy a DVD, or order it online and wait however many days for delivery. Even based on today's broadband, it's faster to download once the decision's been made!
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post #24 of 38
8/23/07 at 8:15am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

There is no way the d/l model will happen within at least 10 years. Many people don't even have broadband now and those that do will not want to spend the time d/ling multi gig movies and providers will not be all keen to have people d/ling hundreds of gigs a month so prices will HAVE to go up and then consumers will be upset, etc. so I don't think people need to get all up in arms about it.

One thing many people need to grasp is d/ling a multi gig file is diff than a 3 MB mp3.

JMHO.
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post #25 of 38
8/23/07 at 8:40am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Young
There is no way the d/l model will happen within at least 10 years. Many people don't even have broadband now and those that do will not want to spend the time d/ling multi gig movies and providers will not be all keen to have people d/ling hundreds of gigs a month so prices will HAVE to go up and then consumers will be upset, etc. so I don't think people need to get all up in arms about it.

One thing many people need to grasp is d/ling a multi gig file is diff than a 3 MB mp3.

JMHO.

Rob, have you ever done a HD OnDemand movie? It's instanteous and seemless and very good quality and EXISTS RIGHT NOW. There isn't any 30 minute delay to "download" the movie. It's not unreasonable to believe that the quality and selection of movies are only going to improve over time.

Even "purchasing" a movie can mean just a bit selected in their system that says you own it. The movie doesn't ever have to reside on your DVR, just further viewing streams would be free.
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post #26 of 38
8/23/07 at 8:52am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

If you have Cable-Broadband, downloading GBs of data might become harder in the (near?) future. Looks like Cable companies will be needing to upgrade their infrastructure.

Here's the link:
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...th-crunch.html
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post #27 of 38
8/23/07 at 9:14am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

When I was out at EMA I met a pair of guys that had a
rather innovative idea that they were pushing to the studios.

They had what looked like an ordinary USB flash drive, though
it was somewhat larger and bulkier. Still quite compact, though.

Their idea was to put Kiosks in video stores or supermarkets where
essentially you would stick your USB drive in the Kiosk and get a
major movie downloaded to it. The movie would be on a time limit
for rental purposes or you could keep it indefinitely.

If I remember correct, this key is capable of holding 500 HD films.
Now, that seems kind of far fetched, but I believe that was the
number quoted to me.

You could bring this USB key to friend's house and watch it on his
TV. However, you would not be able to transfer it to a hard drive.

Lose the USB key? Not a problem. Each key has a specific ID
number and everyone's data is backed up on a master server at
company headquarters. This way you can be issued a replacement
USB key and all your data would be easily restored.

This is real technology that is out there and being touted
to the studios right now. I was just blown away after talking with
these guys (one of them is the cousin of Donny Osmond). I thought
so highly of their product that I even notified a few studios that they
should talk with these two gentlemen.
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post #28 of 38
8/23/07 at 10:46am

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Downloads will probably = Divx2

I want an actual copy I can hold in my hand and watch anytime I want. I don't want it stored on a magnetic hard drive. And I don't want to pay every time I want to watch the thing.
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post #29 of 38
8/23/07 at 1:48pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

Todd,

In regards to the technology I discussed in my post..

If you buy the film, it's yours to keep. You don't pay for each viewing.
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post #30 of 38
8/23/07 at 2:22pm

Re: Blu-ray/HD-DVD vs Downloading HD Movies..

What I would not mind someday if there was a service that was "HD On Demand", but with a set-top box gave you access to thousands of movies instanteously.

Kind of like a direct NetFlix "Channel".

Lets say you sit down on the couch, it's a Sunday night, you feel like watching a movie. You got onto this service and have access to full catalog of titles from Kurosawa to Kubrick to new releases. Maybe $4-$7 and you get the movie for a 24 hour period, $19.99-$24.99 to watch it unlimited times.

But I'm not talking like 40, 50, 60 or even 80 movies available, I'm talking you'd have the option of basically just about every movie released at your fingertips whenever you felt like watching it. If they could do that, with the on demand functionality (meaning no long downloading times), I'd definitely sign up for that service.
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