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Originally Posted by Paul Arnette
...there are a helluva lot of Pauls here. Throughout most of my life, I've always been the only Paul amongst the majority of people I've known. There are at least 3-4 in this sub-forum alone. We Pauls have got it going on in high definition!
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| Odd/interesting that Supremacy (as opposed to Ultimatum) re-entered the top 10. Again, probably the impact of those sales that you were also apparently right about, Adam. |
| I continue to believe that firesale closeout prices are not the key to a sustainable format, new releases are... |
| and double the download market |
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Originally Posted by Sam Posten
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| You're comparing two different situations. DVD not only had to convince people to adopt the new format, it also had to convince people that purchasing movies instead of renting was worth it. It took a while for people to feel comfortable purchasing movies. |
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Originally Posted by Dave Moritz
I have to totally disagree Marc, VHS was the format that had to convince people to buy movies. I have known a good number of people that purchased VHS movies and then switched over to DVD after that had been out for a few years. I also work in the retail market and still see people that have VHS collections even today and some do not have many dvd's and a few do not even have dvd's.
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Originally Posted by Paul Arnette
[Billy Madison]I am the smartest man alive![/Billy Madison]
No, he was talking to me. Incidentlly, there are a helluva lot of Pauls here. Throughout most of my life, I've always been the only Paul amongst the majority of people I've known. There are at least 3-4 in this sub-forum alone. We Pauls have got it going on in high definition! |
And yet there seems to be only one Wong here even though my "Uncle Wong" back at the university nearly a generation ago (give or take ) used to love to say "there's a billion of us out there" -- and yeah, my last name used to be top 5 in China.|
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
and yet HDM is ahead of DVD adoption curve.
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). Whether you wanna predict one way or the other, pretty much all the current figures for HDM so far bold well when compared to DVD in its early days. You can quibble about certain finer points here and there, but every conjecture can be met w/ an equally valid counter one really.
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Originally Posted by bigluigi
During the whole BetaMax/VHS era, consumers rarely bought titles as they were just too expensive. Apart from buying some horrible used rental tapes (remember those), the only NEW BetaMax title I ever bought was The Wild Bunch in the early '80s and it set me back $80!!!
No....Betamax/VHS era was mostly strickly rental. Remember all those "Mom & Pop" video rental stores that were on every block that sprang up overnight. A lot of them went out of business during the emergence of DVD as consumers were buying movies and not renting. |
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Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong
Personally, I wonder why some folks here are so bent on being pessimistic about the future of HDM. Has the format war really soured y'all *THAT* much on wanting HDM to succeed and ultimately (and hopefully) benefit you the film collector/cinephile???
_Man_ |
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Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
I'm not pessismistic about the future of HDM, but I don't think it's going to have the market penetration that SD DVD did in the last 10-11 years. Having such thoughts has nothing to do with not wanting HDM to succeed because as a videophile, I already have 320 HDM releases, but it has more to do with the marketplace and how I'm reading the tea leaves at the moment.
Crawdaddy |
I also don't really expect the same success for HDM as for DVD, but some folks are bent on spreading gloom and doom that HDM will end up being a lot like LD or some such (and they don't even sound like they want HDM to do better at all apart from the frequent gloom-and-doom predictions and outlook)...|
Originally Posted by Brandon Conway
I find it telling that despite this being the best week HD-DVD has had since the first week of the year, the Since Inception number moved further in Blu-ray's favor from 64:36 to 65:35.
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| Dedicated Blu-ray Disc player sales, which omit video game consoles, represented 65 percent of unit volume share during the period and 69 percent of retail sales dollars, according to the leaked data. HD DVD players accounted for 28 percent of hardware unit sales and 14 percent of overall HD disc retail dollars. The remainder can be attributed to combo player sales share at 6 percent unit sales and 17 percent dollar share. |
| I find it telling that despite this being the best week HD-DVD has had since the first week of the year, the Since Inception number moved further in Blu-ray's favor from 64:36 to 65:35. |
| Despite moving slightly up in the ratios for the 3 weeks prior to last week, HD DVD's actual unit sales went down: |
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Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
Blu-ray unit numbers have been steadily dropping since mid January: -48% the week of 1/20, -10% the week of 1/27, and -18% the week of 2/3. HD DVD fell like a rock the week of the WB announcement dropping 66% the week of 1/13, then falling 36% the week of 1/20, -4% the week of 1/27 and rising 25% the week of 2/3 (in part due to the BOGO). HD DVDs biggest problem is lack of releases. There will be only two exclusive bigger titles this entire first quarter. Those numbers have been catalog only. It would be interesting to take out the BD new releases during these weeks and compare the numbers...
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| We'll just have to agree to disagree on how much of that 25% increase was due to the BOGO. I'm of the opinion it was a large factor. |
| Also, I'm not sure why it would be interesting to compare the numbers without BD's new releases? What point would it serve other than to artifically pump up HD's numbers? Sam's point regarding new releases being the key to a sustainable format is astute. New releases are a factor here, and it serves no point to ignore them. HD DVD's lack of new releases, apart from Warner's imposed three-week delay, is no one's fault but the studios supporting HD DVD. |
| without resorting to 50% Off sales or BOGOs, then it is just a matter of time before retailers start calling this fight. |
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Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
No problem. The only reason why I don't think it was a huge factor is because it was only one store (Best Buy), as opposed to multiple stores/sites.
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Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
I actually think retailers like BOGOs. They make the same $$, and get people in their stores....its a loss leader that they don't have to take a loss on! I think that they will look at the overall software numbers and hardware sales (to project furture growth). Retailers will be the ones to keep HD DVD alive or kill it.
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| It would be interesting to view the numbers from a week with a HD DVD Best Buy BOGO vs. one with an HD DVD Amazon 50% Off Sale and see what moves more units. |
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Originally Posted by Marc Colella
It really shows how small the HDM sales numbers are.
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Originally Posted by bigluigi
I wonder what would happen to that "adoption curve" if you deleted all PS3 player sales and used only SA players sales.......just wondering.
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Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
I think we can all agree that it will be interesting to compare the HDM vs DVD adoption numbers later this year and see how they compare then.
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Originally Posted by Sanjay Gupta
The only conclusion I can some to is that this 'war' is really doing major damage to HDM adoption, ofcourse the quality of titles is not helping much either.
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Originally Posted by Edwin-S
A lot of people on this forum are sticking to DVD only due to the fact that there is still no clear victor in the format war. A lot of people here will sit on the sidelines until one side or the other throws in the towel.
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| What is the point of people buying HDTVs and not upgrading to HD media? If a person isn't interested in watching HD then why waste the money on an HD set? They might as well stick with SD televisions. |
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Originally Posted by Marc Colella
There are a good number of reasons:
- larger TV is attractive to most people ("big screen" phrase still applies) - not much of a choice for TVs when most are HDTVs - it's an improvement to their current sets, even when not using HD - flat panels are thin and sexy, and most are HD - widescreen aspect ratio - supports HD quality for next gen video game systems - there are a large number of people who think they're receiving HD quality just by purchasing an HDTV. Hell, I purchased an HDTV 6 or so years ago simply because it offered amazing PQ for DVD via component and it was a widescreen. I really didn't expect to use it for HD media, and 6 years later I'm still not. |
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Originally Posted by Sanjay Gupta
Personally I am really shocked at the disinterest shown by consumers towards HDM. The only conclusion I can some to is that this 'war' is really doing major damage to HDM adoption, ofcourse the quality of titles is not helping much either.
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Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
No problem. The only reason why I don't think it was a huge factor is because it was only one store (Best Buy), as opposed to multiple stores/sites.
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Originally Posted by Paul Arnette
That's interesting because it is precisely the reason why I do think it was a huge factor (i.e. Best Buy accounts for a large volume of HDM sales). It would be interesting to view the numbers from a week with a HD DVD Best Buy BOGO vs. one with an HD DVD Amazon 50% Off Sale and see what moves more units.
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