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*** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread *See Post 957, p. 32* - Page 28

post #811 of 992
2/2/08 at 12:11pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

The next five weeks of sales should be interesting. BD should likely totally dominate for the week of 2/3 (based on the releases of 1/29), but will the first significant HD-DVD title of the year - Elizabeth: The Golden Age - and the Super Bowl ad do anything to help out for the week of 2/10 (based on the releases of 2/5)? It'll be going against some heavy hitters on BD, including the "PS3 Gamer Crowd" friendly Across the Universe. I'd expect BD to totally dominate the week of 2/17 (2/12 releases), but then the BIG GUNS that HD-DVD are counting on in the form of American Gangster and Beowulf arrive the weeks of 2/24 sales (2/19 release) and 3/2 sales (2/26 release), respectively.

Here's the non-concert/nature documentary releases for those five weeks:

1/29

Daddy Day Camp (Sony)
Damages - Season 1 (Sony)
The Invasion (Warner)
King of California (First Look)
Monty Python's Life of Brian (Sony)

2/5

Across the Universe (Sony)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner)
The Brave One (Warner)
Breaker Morant (Image)
Crimson Tide (Disney)
Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal)
The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony)
Me, Myself and Irene (Fox)
Wall Street (Fox)

2/12

The Amateurs (First Look)
Becoming Jane (Disney)
Gone Baby Gone (Disney)
No Reservations (Warner)
We Own the Night (Sony)

2/19

American Gangster (Universal)
Galaxina (BCI)
In the Valley of Elah (Warner)
The Invasion (Warner) (3 weeks after BD version)
Michael Clayton (Warner)
Run Lola Run (Sony)

2/26

30 Days of Night (Sony)
Beowulf (Paramount)
The Brave One (Warner) (3 weeks after BD version)
Freedom: 4 (Bandai)
Justice League: The New Frontier (Warner)
To Kill a King (Starz)
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post #812 of 992
2/4/08 at 8:39am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

We've had enough discussion about Bill Hunt and NPD numbers. If you want to continue to discuss Bill and whatever issues you may have with the numbers on his site then please do so somewhere else.






Crawdaddy
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post #813 of 992
2/4/08 at 9:57am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Brandon, American Gangster should be Universal.
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post #814 of 992
2/4/08 at 10:00am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Thanks. Now fixed.
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post #815 of 992
2/7/08 at 1:28am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

My prediction for this week is 75/25 (BD/HD DVD) with at least 4 HD DVDs in the top 20
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post #816 of 992
2/7/08 at 6:40am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I think Elizabeth might make top ten but I dunno about any others. I'm gonna say its gonna be closer to 90/10....
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post #817 of 992
2/7/08 at 6:49am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
My prediction for this week is 75/25 (BD/HD DVD) with at least 4 HD DVDs in the top 20

Is this a prediction prediction or a David Vaughn "prediction".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
I think Elizabeth might make top ten but I dunno about any others. I'm gonna say its gonna be closer to 90/10....

Elizabeth: The Golden Age was this week, the numbers Adam is referring to are from the week before. Unless you are referring to the original because of its Amazon 50% Off-ness?
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post #818 of 992
2/7/08 at 9:10am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Paul is right in that the numbers are always a week+ behind. Elizabeth wasn't counted in this weeks numbers. Same applies to Across the Universe, The Assasination of JJ and other BD titles released on the 5th. They will be counted in the NPD numbers released next week.

Paul-To answer your question somewhere in between.....
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post #819 of 992
2/7/08 at 9:40am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Yep. The numbers this week are for the 1/29 releases.
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post #820 of 992
2/7/08 at 11:43am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Then I'm even more confused. Which 4-5 titles do you think would stack up on the HD DVD side? I'd say that the previous week would be 90/10 OR WORSE (for HDDVD) as there were still BOGOs for both formats at that point, right? When do the numbers come out?
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post #821 of 992
2/7/08 at 11:51am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
Then I'm even more confused. Which 4-5 titles do you think would stack up on the HD DVD side? I'd say that the previous week would be 90/10 OR WORSE as there were still BOGOs for both formats at that point, right?

Best Buy was running an HD DVD-only BOGO that week. I do not recall Blu-ray Disc having a BOGO that week, but I could be mistaken.
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post #822 of 992
2/7/08 at 12:35pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

OK, so you think it's likely for BOGO HD DVD catalogues to beat BR new releases? Interesting proposition. Again, given that this is after several weeks worth of BOGOs and the BOGO in question was for only a select number of retailers, which HD DVD disks would have charted in the top 20?
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post #823 of 992
2/7/08 at 1:14pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
OK, so you think it's likely for BOGO HD DVD catalogues to beat BR new releases? Interesting proposition. Again, given that this is after several weeks worth of BOGOs and the BOGO in question was for only a select number of retailers, which HD DVD disks would have charted in the top 20?

I never said that HD DVD catalog releases would beat Blu-ray Disc new releases. I guess what I am saying is that I don't see 4 HD DVDs placing in the Top 20 to be as fantastic as you do. If I had to hazard a guess as to what those four discs would be, I would say: Transformers, Planet Earth, The Bourne Supremacy, and The Kingdom.

Anyway, your real issue seems to be less with me and more with Adam since it was his prediction.
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post #824 of 992
2/7/08 at 1:20pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I was using the generic 'you' =)

Still, nobody has said when we should expect the next batch of numbers. And it's not like the format war hangs on this particular week or anything. =)

Also, interesting that you (and this time I mean YOU you!) list Planet Earth. I finally picked up a copy for $55 with free shipping.... On BluRay =) I'm pretty much done with buying new media unless they are REALLY cheap, but this one had been on my list for a while and I never found a used copy so I finally gave in to the impulse.
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post #825 of 992
2/7/08 at 1:28pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
I was using the generic 'you' =)

Still, nobody has said when we should expect the next batch of numbers. And it's not like the format war hangs on this particular week or anything. =)

Gotcha. No problem. I assume we should expect the next batch of numbers at the same Bat-time, same Bat-channel (i.e. tomorrow between 1-3PM EST).

One other interesting note, the week of 1/29 featured the following releases:

Blu-ray Disc:

Daddy Day Camp (Sony)
Damages: The Complete First Season (Sony)
Dispatch: Zimbabwe - Live at Madison Square Garden (Warner Music Group)
The Invasion (Warner)
Justin Timberlake: Live at Madison Square Garden (Sony BMG)
King of California (First Look)
Monty Python's Life of Brian (Sony)

HD DVD:

Dispatch: Zimbabwe - Live at Madison Square Garden (Warner Music Group)
King of California (First Look)
Strauss: Die Fledermaus (Opus Arte)

Of the Blu-ray Disc list, the only real powerhouse title was The Invasion. However, a number of retailers incorrectly stocked The Invasion for HD DVD as well, so I would be curious to know if that made an appearance in the Top 20 somehow. Regardless, it was sure to be a low-volume week for BD, so, again, I can see a 75/25 split.
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post #826 of 992
2/7/08 at 8:19pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
I'm pretty much done with buying new media unless they are REALLY cheap

That's my gameplan too.

I wish someone could explain Planet Earth to me. It was a strong HD DVD seller until the WB switch and then the HD DVD fell off the face of the earth. Since then BD numbers for it have gone up (it's sold very well on both formats). Considering it is an expensive catalog title I can't believe the legs it has!
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post #827 of 992
2/7/08 at 8:40pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
That's my gameplan too.

I wish someone could explain Planet Earth to me. It was a strong HD DVD seller until the WB switch and then the HD DVD fell off the face of the earth. Since then BD numbers for it have gone up (it's sold very well on both formats). Considering it is an expensive catalog title I can't believe the legs it has!

The PQ on those discs are catching people's eyes. A fellow I know from work finally pulled the trigger on 40gig PS3, just so he could watch the series. He was impressed with the demo he saw playing, judging from his comments prior to picking up the PS3.

He paid 90 bucks for the series. Personally, I would have ordered it from Amazon and waited, but he didn't want to wait.
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post #828 of 992
2/7/08 at 8:52pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
That's my gameplan too.

I wish someone could explain Planet Earth to me. It was a strong HD DVD seller until the WB switch and then the HD DVD fell off the face of the earth. Since then BD numbers for it have gone up (it's sold very well on both formats). Considering it is an expensive catalog title I can't believe the legs it has!

Consider what Discovery HD did for HDTVs (and HD subscribers) starting a few years ago, and you have part of the answer there -- as Edwin also indicated anecdotally in his reply.

Basically, Planet Earth is a cross between a minor "killer app" for HDM *and* a solid indicator for mainstream format adoption -- and I had suspected something like that in an earlier post in one of these "official" threads. It's the kind of title that appeals to families (w/ kids) while also provides the kind of eye candy and nature stuff that appeals to many yuppie types and various others in between.

FWIW, I plan to buy it on BD as well in large part because my kids will love it. And titles like that might even get my siblings and many friends/coworkers to jump into HDM even though they are not enthusiasts like me.

_Man_
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post #829 of 992
2/7/08 at 9:18pm

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

The only thing powerhouse about The Invasion was the big thud it made at the boxoffice. It made $15.7 million on a $80million dollar budget. The 1/29 releases aren't going to bring a lot of pop on either formats.
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post #830 of 992
2/8/08 at 5:10am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Dear lord, do we really need people making predictions and counter predictions about what the sales figures might look like?!? There's enough arguing in this thread as it is.
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post #831 of 992
2/8/08 at 6:17am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I've certainly used PLANET EARTH to pitch HDTV (and Blu-ray if asked) to friends and neighbors who waffling about diving into high definition.

"Shallow Seas" is particularly useful for that.
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post #832 of 992
2/8/08 at 8:10am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

HMM Feb 10 - Feb 16, 2008



Titles Released Jan 29, 2008
Daddy Day Camp (Sony)
Damages: The Complete First Season (Sony)
Dispatch: Zimbabwe - Live at Madison Square Garden (Warner Music Group)
The Invasion (Warner)
Justin Timberlake: Live at Madison Square Garden (Sony BMG)
King of California (First Look)
Monty Python's Life of Brian (Sony)
Dispatch: Zimbabwe - Live at Madison Square Garden (Warner Music Group)
King of California (First Look)
Strauss: Die Fledermaus (Opus Arte)

Percentages
BD / HD
74 / 26 Week
76 / 24 Year
65 / 35 Since Inception

Top 10 Titles
1. 3:10 to Yuma 100.00
2. Planet Earth 95.72
3. PotC At World's End 95.68
4. Saw IV 88.39
5. Transformers 88.24
6. 300 87.09
7. Bourne Supremacy 84.00
8. The Game Plan 83.90
9. The Invasion 76.78
10. Ratatouille 69.25

Number of Titles in Top 10
BD:8
HD:2

Weeks Won In 2008
Blu-ray 5 *****
HD DVD 0
Weeks Won In 2007
Blu-ray 52
HD DVD 0
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post #833 of 992
2/8/08 at 8:26am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Adam was dead on! Seems like the bargains are 'helping.'
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post #834 of 992
2/8/08 at 8:42am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
Adam was dead on! Seems like the bargains are 'helping.'

It really shows how small the HDM sales numbers are.
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post #835 of 992
2/8/08 at 8:59am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
It really shows how small the HDM sales numbers are.

100% agreement.
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post #836 of 992
2/8/08 at 9:10am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Dear lord, do we really need people making predictions and counter predictions about what the sales figures might look like?!? There's enough arguing in this thread as it is.

I understand about wanting to minimize arguing and there being enough of it as there is, but I don't think the very friendly discussion that ensued was arguing at all, not no mention that Paul was able to read between the lines on this one....
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post #837 of 992
2/8/08 at 10:36am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Paul-To answer your question somewhere in between.....
Adam, you tawkin' ta me?

Odd/interesting that Supremacy (as opposed to Ultimatum) re-entered the top 10. Again, probably the impact of those sales that you were also apparently right about, Adam.

Save 50% on HD DVDs
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post #838 of 992
2/8/08 at 11:01am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
It really shows how small the HDM sales numbers are.

and yet HDM is ahead of DVD adoption curve.

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and double the download market

Home Media Magazine - Bringing Digital Entertainment To You

and no arguing here, it was friendly banter and while I'm shocked HD DVD is able to keep it that close I continue to believe that firesale closeout prices are not the key to a sustainable format, new releases are...

One final edit: I see that the bluray Planet Earth charted and the HD DVD didnt
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post #839 of 992
2/8/08 at 11:04am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

If I didn't know "better," I'd surmise that Par and U are wanting to clear the decks of this stock. But then there are BD BOGOs/sales taking place , too . . .
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post #840 of 992
2/8/08 at 11:12am

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
...not no mention that Paul was able to read between the lines on this one....

[Billy Madison]I am the smartest man alive![/Billy Madison]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul.S
Adam, you tawkin' ta me?

No, he was talking to me. Incidentlly, there are a helluva lot of Pauls here. Throughout most of my life, I've always been the only Paul amongst the majority of people I've known. There are at least 3-4 in this sub-forum alone. We Pauls have got it going on in high definition!
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Home Theater Forum › Home Theater Forum › Blu-ray, DVD, Streaming Video and Digital Downloads › Blu-ray › *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread *See Post 957, p. 32*