post #691 of 992
1/3/08 at 12:37am
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Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
If I were WB (or Time Warner) I would be playing both sides against each other to get the best deal.
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Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong
Aye, but I do think Paul Scott's thoughts make some good sense. And of the various partisan companies involved, I could definitely see Sony being the one that would hold out the most/longest in this format war regardless of how it goes -- and they could very well hold out indefinitely until both sides die rather than to surrender and switch sides judging from their history, even if Warner goes HDD exclusive. It's certainly *part* of the reason why I decided to jump into BD myself...
_Man_ |
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Originally Posted by bigluigi
Judging from Sony's recent history, it wasn't that long ago that they threw in the towel and abandoned their own Betamax format and began manufacturing VHS players....oh, the indignity of it all.
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| Regarding WB, the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB. Besides, if they needed a cash infusion as some people suggested, it sure would be prudent to accept incentives from both formats NOT to go exclusive, and stay neutral. |
| Regarding WB, the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB. Besides, if they needed a cash infusion as some people suggested, it sure would be prudent to accept incentives from both formats NOT to go exclusive, and stay neutral. |
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Originally Posted by bigluigi
Judging from Sony's recent history, it wasn't that long ago that they threw in the towel and abandoned their own Betamax format and began manufacturing VHS players....oh, the indignity of it all.
Regarding WB, the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB. Besides, if they needed a cash infusion as some people suggested, it sure would be prudent to accept incentives from both formats NOT to go exclusive, and stay neutral. |
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Originally Posted by Paul_Scott
Sure I could be wrong...but this does make some kind of sense...doesn't it?
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| Some of the items really don't make much sense. What would it matter to any of the other studios if Sony continues to produce BD for years to come? If they are the only ones producing them for all intents the war would be over. Neither side could survive if they were down to one studio. |
| Another item I just never see happening is the selling of patents to Sony. One, why would Sony want them? They already have a competing format that is not compatible with the other so purchasing the patents makes no sense. Also why would Warner want to sell them? Even if they get a good package that convinces them to go Blu only they might as well hang onto the patents and make a little gravy on the side. |
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Originally Posted by ReggieW
It's interesting that "Shoot em up" is getting it's own encode, but since New Line's day/date BD's are being released MONTHS before their HD-DVD counterparts, this doesn't really seem all that shocking too me and only makes sense. If there's any evidence that they're going BD exclusive, I don't think this is it. Lol.
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| the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB |
| I like that the lack of indication about which way WB might go exclusive (if they do) is keeping the usual suspects from screaming about "payoffs" etc., because they'd look like utter fools if the "payoff" winds up coming from "their" side. |
| The patents or royalties only have value to the owner (in this case Warner), if other studios produce content. |
| And the New York Times ran a feature story in its Business section over the weekend on how most consumers are sitting on the sidelines in the high-def format war. It's a pretty general piece and seems a little behind-the-curve in terms of the latest developments, but interesting is this bit of information from the text: "As an indication of their owners’ enthusiasm, Blu-ray users are buying twice as many discs as their HD DVD counterparts, according to Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research." I don't think we'd actually heard independent confirmation of this before. |
| "When high-definition DVD reaches its tipping point, studios will have to release their movies in both HD DVD and Blu-ray," Mr. Adams said. "No studio will be able to afford not to." |
| I don't think it's one that HDM is going to win unless the companies actually replace SD DVD with HDM. In other words, they have to stop (or significantly reduce) the amount of SD DVDs they produce and force consumers to switch. I can't see this happening until after the HDTV switch in '09. And that particular event, I believe, is going to leave the average consumer in such a bad mood that they aren't going to reward the CE companies by rebuying their media collections in HDM (even though that aggression may be misplaced). Again, that's just how I see it. |
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Originally Posted by Ensign Eddie
I would like to thank Bill Hunt for pointing out an article in the New York Times in his Two Cents yesterday that I think sums up much of my feelings on this "war". Of course, he only cherry-picks one comment out of the article to bolster his position:
But I think the quote from that same Mr. Adams at the end of the article is more telling: As I said, this sums up my feelings pretty well. The only holdout (in either format) I can see is Sony. However, my other feeling is that HDM will never go mainstream (another idea discussed in the article Mr. Hunt references). I think that this "Format War" is really a "Format Battle". The real war is with SD DVD. And, unfortunately, I don't think it's one that HDM is going to win unless the companies actually replace SD DVD with HDM. In other words, they have to stop (or significantly reduce) the amount of SD DVDs they produce and force consumers to switch. I can't see this happening until after the HDTV switch in '09. And that particular event, I believe, is going to leave the average consumer in such a bad mood that they aren't going to reward the CE companies by rebuying their media collections in HDM (even though that aggression may be misplaced). Again, that's just how I see it. But at this point, I can't recommend HDM to anyone except enthusiasts. My mom, for instance, has no need or interest. Even friends and family that usually get interested when I invest in a new toy (full disclosure: I am one of those pigs that had the gall to buy a $98 A2 during the "firesale") have shown no interest in joining me on this new venture. And, in some ways, I can't blame them. But it has almost nothing to do with competing HD formats (sorry to disappoint you, Mr. Hunt). |
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Originally Posted by RobertR
It could be relatively painless, though, if HD players are very cheap (under $100) AND the discs are priced about the same as DVDs (although that seems to be a big if at this point). People could still play their old DVDs, and buying and using the new HD discs wouldn't involve much of a learning curve.
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Originally Posted by Patrick Sun
This is why HDM will not stay "niche" like naysayers propose. It's just a matter of time. In 10 years, NTSC will not impact the HDTV landscape, and SD DVDs will be like VHS in terms of shelf space in stores. Whether HDM is 1 or 2 formats in 10 years (or a totally different HD format), it'll be more the norm than one based on NTSC (or PAL). We are still in HDM's infancy.
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| But I think we can probably all agree that HDM would have a better chance to succeed if this format battle gets resolved asap... |
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Originally Posted by Patrick Sun
I will still contend it's about market penetration of HDTV sets, so we are still about 3-4 years (even with the 2009 deadline for digital broadcasting) away from 50%-60% homes having at least 1 HDTV set, but once HDTV sets are commonplace in homes, HDM purchase levels will follow. Then the battle between HD and SD will turn in HD's favor. This is why HDM will not stay "niche" like naysayers propose. It's just a matter of time. In 10 years, NTSC will not impact the HDTV landscape, and SD DVDs will be like VHS in terms of shelf space in stores. Whether HDM is 1 or 2 formats in 10 years (or a totally different HD format), it'll be more the norm than one based on NTSC (or PAL). We are still in HDM's infancy.
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Originally Posted by Ensign Eddie
Frankly, in ten years I hope we have moved beyond spinning platters for anything. Even today, you can 4G on an SD (Secure Digital) flash card. You could probably get the content of a double DVD set on something the size of a Nintendo DS cartidge. And these numbers are only going to go up. I doubt it is inconceivable that the entire Star Trek Season One in HD could fit on a prom cartridge the size of a standard DVD.
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| This, I think, points out one of the other advantages that SD DVD had that HDM does not -- form factor. Going from VHS or (especially) LD to DVD was a significant reduction in size for the media. DVD also had the advantage over VHS of being random access, of course. HDM doesn't have any of these ancillary advantages pushing people towards it. This isn't really a consideration for HT enthusiasts, but I think it does make it a harder sale for the general public. Again, that's just my opinion. |
| I'm sorry, Man, but I really can't agree with this (but I do agree with most of the other things you have said). I just don't think competing formats is what's keeping most people out of the fray. If both formats survive (and that's an admittedly big "if"), people and retailers will adapt. Just as they have with video game software. I know some don't think this is a good analogy, but I just think of my local Best Buy. Somehow multiple versions of "Guitar Hero" co-exist quite well. And if Aunt Mildred buys it for little Johnny on the wrong format, little Johnny knows this before opening it and most likely can get it exchanged. Why can this not work for HDM? |
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Originally Posted by Cees Alons
I agree. The competition "battle" hasn't hurt the consumer at all. We're paying less than we would have if there had been one format only.
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| And the consumers who know *all* about both formats but cannot decide, are like a tiny minority. |
| I think it's hurting the industry more, in their view, so this is why they would possibly work to get it ended one way or another. ... As I said before, nothing filthy about that in sheer business terms: one party has something the other wants and vice versa, so a deal is possible. It might not be in our interest as a consumer, but I think "the industry" would be very busy talking now. |
| Whatever outcome, and whenever, I personally hope some of the competition will stay anyway: I want the ICT-bit to stay in the OFF-position, I want region-code to disappear, I want the script-reading-of-each-individual-disc functionality of BD+ to stay unused... and a few other consumer-friendly aspects to be continued (BOGO-sales anyone? |
| Well, if it's hurting the industry (or rather, the businesses), then that's gonna get passed to the consumer, no? Each one of these issues don't operate in a vacuum afterall. |
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Originally Posted by Cees Alons
You are forgetting how small this market piece still was (and is). Currently they "had" to offer prices and advantages to us they'd rather not, much to our advantage.
When the competion between two formats come to a halt, that will undoubtedly disappear. |
| And you (or other consumers) are paying the losses on, say, the PS3 to Sony already: through anything in cameras you buy from them. Last year they had a terrible loss in their PS3 department, but it was more than balanced by the gains in the Optic department (and a few others). Cees |
| The HD format war so far Blu-ray Disc vs. HD DVD No. of discs sold in 2007: Blu-ray: 5.7 million (64% or $172.8 million) HD DVD: 3.2 million (36% or $97.2 million) Discs sold since inception: Blu-ray: 6.1 million (62%) HD DVD: 3.7 million (38%) Source: Redhill Group Top-selling high-definition discs of 2007 (through 12/30/07) 1. 300 (Blu-ray/Warner): 472,400 2. Planet Earth: The Complete Series (both formats/BBC Video): 294,300 3. Transformers (HD DVD/Paramount/DreamWorks): 239,100 4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Blu-ray/Disney): 219,300 5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (both/Warner): 179,500 6. The Departed (both/Warner): 171,800 7. Casino Royale (Blu-ray/Sony): 169,800 8. Bourne Ultimatum (HD DVD/Universal): 162,300 9. Spider-Man 3 (Blu-ray/Sony): 145,300 10. Ratatouille (Blu-ray/Disney): 117,500 Source: Redhill Group |
| Title | St. Date | ||
| Resident Evil: Extinction | 01-02-08 | Sony | |
| Shoot 'Em Up | 01-02-08 | New Line | |
| War | 01-02-08 | Lionsgate | |
| 3:10 To Yuma | 01-08-08 | Lionsgate | |
| Dragon Wars | 01-08-08 | Sony | |
| Sunshine | 01-08-08 | Fox | |
| White Noise 2 | 01-08-08 | Universal | |
| Good Luck Chuck (Unrated) | 01-15-08 | Lionsgate | |
| Mr. Woodcock | 01-15-08 | New Line | |
| Game Plan, The | 01-22-08 | Disney | |
| Saw IV | 01-22-07 | Lionsgate | |
| Daddy Day Camp | 01-29-08 | Sony | |
| Invasion, The | 01-29-08 | Warner | 02-19-08 |
| King Of California, The | 01-29-08 | First Look | |
| Accross The Universe | 02-05-08 | Sony | |
| Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, The | 02-05-08 | Warner | 03-18-08 |
| Brave One | 02-05-08 | Warner | 02-26-08 |
| Elizabeth: The Golden Age | 02-05-08 | Universal | |
| Jane Austen Book Club, The | 02-05-08 | Sony | |
| Suburban Girl | 02-05-08 | Image | |
| Becoming Jane | 02-12-08 | Miramax | |
| Gone Baby Gone | 02-12-08 | Miramax | |
| No Reservations | 02-12-08 | Warner | 03-04-08 |
| We Own the Night | 02-12-08 | Sony | |
| American Gangster | 02-19-08 | Universal | |
| In the Valley of Elah | 02-19-08 | Warner | 03-11-08 |
| Michael Clayton | 02-19-08 | Warner | 03-11-08 |
| 30 Days Of Night | 02-26-08 | Sony | |
| Beowulf | 02-26-08 | Paramount | |
| Justice League: The New Frontier | 02-26-08 | Warner | 03-18-08 |
| Into The Wild | 03-04-08 | Paramount | |
| Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium | 03-04-08 | Fox | |
| Things We Lost in the Fire | 03-04-08 | Dreamworks | |
| Appleseed Ex Machina | 03-11-08 | Warner | 04-01-08 |
| August Rush | 03-11-08 | Warner | 04-01-08 |
| Bee Movie | 03-11-08 | Dreamworks | |
| Dan In Real Life | 03-11-07 | Touchstone | |
| Hitman (Unrated Edition) | 03-11-08 | Fox | |
| No Country For Old Men | 03-11-08 | Miramax | |
| Saawariya | 03-11-08 | Sony | |
| Sleuth | 03-11-08 | Sony | |
| Enchanted | 03-18-08 | Disney | |
| I Am Legend | 03-18-08 | Warner | 04-08-08 |
| Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story | 03-25-08 | Sony |
| January - March '08 | Blu-Ray | HD-DVD | St. Date | Warner | Neilsen | NPD | 115132 | 76148 | |||||||
| Day/Date New Titles | 37 | 8 | 01-02-08 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 01-06-08 | 65% | 35% | 01-05-08 | 51% | 49% | 15257 | 14558 | |
| Exclusive | 36 | 7 | 01-08-08 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 01-13-08 | 85% | 15% | 01-12-08 | 93% | 7% | 21770 | 1758 | |
| 01-15-08 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 01-20-08 | 83% | 17% | |||||||||
| BBC | 0 | 0 | 01-22-08 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Disney | 2 | 01-29-08 | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Dreamworks | 2 | 02-05-08 | 5 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||
| First Look | 1 | 1 | 02-12-08 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Fox | 3 | 02-19-08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| HBO | 0 | 02-26-08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Image | 1 | 0 | 03-04-08 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Lionsgate | 4 | 03-11-08 | 7 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||
| MGM | 0 | 03-18-08 | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Miramax | 3 | 03-25-08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| New Line | 2 | 37 | 8 | 7 | |||||||||||
| Paramount | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Sony | 10 | ||||||||||||||
| Touchstone | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Universal | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| Warner | 10 | ||||||||||||||
| Weinstein | 0 |