*** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread *See Post 957, p. 32* - Page 23

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

If it's true about WB picking a side, they are going to cheese off a lot of people who purchased one of the formats for Christmas. They should have made their decision before the holidays. Just my two cents.

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If WB goes exclusive, I can see those who are format nuetral who've bought the Harry Potter titles being pissed. I would be if I can no longer buy the rest of the series in the only format I chose.

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OH boy. Yeeeeshshshs man.


I have to say this every time somebody says something that.

There is sooooo much incredible music out there. SOooooooo much, and it has nothing to do with the record inustry.

When I like a band, I like a band, and I generally love to listen to a whole Album.

I could rattle off a crap load of bands that are hard working, touring artists that really dont' make a good living off of doing what they do, but they do it anyways.

There's so much talent out there, but it's being placed into the areas that aren't mainsteam.

I'm sorry man, I don't know much about you, but I'm 19 and music is probably a much bigger hobby than home entertainment.

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Hey Averry,

I apologize if I made it sound like there is no good music out there. There is plenty of good music but there is also alot of music that is not all that great and albums that have one or two good songs. I too love music but I honestly feel that most consumers do not go out and buy music like the used to. And the slump in music sales I think says it all. I feel that most consumers do not believe that music cd's are a good value anymore. I also feel that the music industry has been overly greedy for far to long and maybe they brought the current enviroment on themselves? Most of the 19 - 24 year olds that I know do not have music collections persay. They might have few CD's but no real collection and unfortunantly people have gotten into MP3's. They are conveinent but I do not beleive that they are as good as CD's or HR music. But there does not seem to be as many consumers like you Averry, they just do not seem to build music libraries like they use to and like you may be doing.


Back to the topic of HDM.

Going back to what I stated before, I do not believe I worded it like WB said it was Blu-ray or neutrality? While it is always possible that WB could go HD-DVD only I do not believe it to be probable.

Turning the tide: Warner Bros. going Blu-ray exclusive? - Gadgets news - QJ.NET

Rumor: Warner Bros. Going All Blu-ray at CES

Warner joins Blu-ray DVD camp | CNET News.com

Format War: Warner Bros. Considering Blu-ray Exclusivity

Will Time Warner’s Move to Blu-Ray End HD War? - Talk Back - Digital Trends

This statement is from gizmodo.com where they quote Warner Home Video VP Dan Silverberg.




Like I said before we can all guess what may happen but we are only days away from finding out what WB is going to do. And only WB and some insiders actually know what is going to happen and what will be said at CES in Las Vegas.

Now regarding Microsoft and there support for HD-DVD I would not be suprised if they are putting money into HD-DVD to prolong the format war. Can I prove it or anyone else prove it, no it is only a theory that some have about the format war. But you have to admit that MS would definantly love to be in the possition to be the one getting the royalties. MS would love for HD media to move from optical discs to downloads. Personally I think the move away from a physical format completly would be a huge mistake. HD downloads are coming and they do have there place. But what value is a hd download to a collector? What value as a collectable would downloaded media ever have? Many people like to collect movies and have them on a shelf and studios know this. Just imagine downloading a good size library of HD titles to a hard drive only to have the drive die. If your player dies you ether get it fixed or buy a new one. What do you do if your hd dies, most likely you would have to go back and buy all those titles all over again. Like I said its a horible idea and one that should not happen if there is to be no physical media available. IMHO MS does not really care if ether HD format wins, they most likely would prefer if they both lost.

This is exactly why this format war should not go past 2009. I do not like MS getting into the movie industry and affecting how consumers get movie titles. MS can not even keep there own PC software from being pirated why is it that Hollywood is trusting them to keep movies safe? We need to have a winner and we need this to happen sometime in the near future. The format war was good in the short term, it brought down the cost of hardware quickly. But with to many consumers not jumping onboard ether side, this format war may only serve to promote MS vision of HD only downloads. And that is the direction it may end up going if MS truely had its way. Another reason HD downloads will not and should not be a primary delivery system for HD content. Not everyone has computers and not everyone has internet access. And not everyone that has a credit card is comfortable buying products online. Again I am not saying that there is no place or market for HD downloads, its just that they should not become the primary way to get HDM.

So if WB going Blu-ray only helps sway a studio or two and helps end this format war sooner. The same goes for if WB went the other way and supported HD-DVD only and caused a chain reaction towards HD-DVD. I have both formats, but I would prefer it if Blu-ray won. I would however continue to purchase HDM no matter what side won the war. I started out with mostly HD-DVD titles but I have been buying mostly Blu-rays for two reasons. One I feel that it is a better format over all and two I would prefer Blu-ray to win. They are both great formats but this is not the gaming industry where dual formats co-exsists with the blessings of the consumer. This is the A/V world where historically there needs to be a winner and a looser. Does that mean that the winner will not end up a nitch product? No, even if Blu-ray wins or HD-DVD wins they both could end up a nitch product even after a winner is declared. I honestly hope that is not the case and I hope that more consumers will buy into HD once a winner is anounced.

Aprox. 8 days left till WB makes there anouncement.

Blu-ray only, HD-DVD only or will they stay neutral ????? Dam I can not wait to find out!

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Boy, if WB does go format exclusive, for the sake of nothing more than common sense, I sure wish that such a format choice would be fairly obvious.
As it stands right now, both formats are enjoying increased sales in both hardware and software and to choose a side at this point, would not be a smart business move in my opinion.

Better to remain neutral and continue selling software in both formats for awhile and let the increased hardware sales work to WB's advantage.

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The only reason people assume that WB is likely to go BD over HD DVD is because of one article that TK Arnold wrote and later "clarified". WB also came out and strongly denied what was said in the article. (Someday after the format war has been over for a while I have a good story to tell about how that article came about). Currently, WB has no reason to choose one format over the other. It's an even game. Both sides are talking to Time Warner (the parent company) and they will go with the deal that is better for them. I doubt the advanteges of either format will be considered in the decision.

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Dave-
While I know that there are divisions in MS that would like things to go to digital delivery, I think the arguement that they reason they are supporting HD DVD is so that the formats can both fail makes no sense. Currently they support HD DVD, but you can also download Universal, Disney, Warner, Lionsgate and other studio titles on XBOX live. Microsoft is supporting both HD DVD and downloads, just like Disney is supporting BD and downloads, and WB is supporting BD, HD DVD, downloads and PPV. Its smart to go after both audiances. I like owning the disc and case, but I'm getting to be the ripe old age of 35 and the youngsters running around today seem to prefer downloads. Why not support both? Fox and WB are starting to include digital versions of their films with the DVDs. Sony is going to launch a similar download service for the PS3 soon. Does that mean they want to confuse the market place so HDM will fail? Nope. Lets face it. Long term the studios want doawnloads so they can fully control the product, save replecation costs and cut out the middleman. If MS wanted HDM to fail, they should push for WB to stay neutral, and not choose a side, because choosing a side would mean a fairly quick end to the format war (a few months).

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To follow up on my earlier WB post. Flip a coin. 48/48 chance that they will go with one format 4% chance that they stay neutral.

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This only seems logical. If we were looking at numbers like Potter & other top day/date titles selling 500,000 on BD and just 100,000 on HD or vice-versa, then the numbers might really come into play. However, as they presently stand, the numbers for both formats are just two close/low to believe that WHV is using them exclusively at this juncture to make such an important decision. It may actually come down to who actually has the deeper pockets, Toshiba or Sony.

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I see nothing in those quotes that suggest blu-ray exclusivity is Warner's only option. Blu-ray was mentioned because the initial rumours were that Warner might go hd-dvd only. All this came out at the time that Warner's contract with blu-ray had expired. The fact that they are planning to do a hd-dvd event at this time suggests either no decision has been made or it could be hd-dvd only or format neutral.

Certainly the latest sales figures do not help blu-ray. You have rough parity in the HP 5 sales and Blade-Runner sales. The Bourne Ultimatum is the top selling single format disc and Transformers is no worse than third.

A single format will not solve hd issues with the general public. The problem is why should the public buy another copy of a movie they already own? Why should they shell out another $25 or 30?

It is either hd-dvd or sd for me. I refuse to deal with blu-ray because of Disney and Fox. I don't like their tactics in the past and I could say where they could go but I won't because the language is not appropriate. I'll live with my upconverting dvd player.

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Adam, don't keep us in suspense!

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Dave Moritz, those links to older stories you posted in your post 664 are all problematic, especially if the idea is to evince what WHV may be contemplating NOW.

The QJ.net and Gizmodo "Format War" stories cite as their exclusive source the October Dan Silverberg comments which were, as Adam alludes to, later debunked in November by a more senior WHV exec:

Warner Says "We're Still Onboard with Both Formats" | High-Def Digest

The Gizmodo "Rumor" story is flimsy, citing nothing other than Lionsgate vice chair Michael Burns regurgitating that "the rumor is Warner is coming aboard."

The CNet story is irrelevant to the topic at hand in that it is about Warner's INITIAL format support decision back in 2005.

And I'm not going to even comment much on Rob Enderle, who has been roundly criticized online for his crackpot "analysis."

No need for a lengthy, rambling reply--just wanted to point out that those links don't really divine anything about the future.

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Thx for response in post 660, Reggie.

Is this the same Dave Vaughn who is a member here? What is known about exactly what his "insider" status is?

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The Gizmodo rumor story is based on the Business week article. There were a lot of comments from the BD side about whow they were working on WB, and the only comments from the HD DVD was something along the lines of we talk to studios all the time. It was basically a polite no comment.

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I agree Adam there is a place for both but I would never want to see downloads be the primary way we get HD content. From a collectors stand point I do not see downloads being worth anything. And I feel that MS would love to see downloads be a primary way people get there HD content. Especially if MS is getting the royalties and I do not necessarily see MS involved in home entertainment as a great thing. You might not believe it but I love technology but MS IMHO is not reliable enough to be in the home entertainment market, and by that I mean audio/video market. Heck they have a hard enough time making a stable OS and software that do not have tons of security holes in them, this is just my honest opinion. So again I have no problem of both physical media and downloads being supported, I just do not want to see downloads take over for physical media.

I honestly do not think MS gives a rat a-- if HD-DVD fails. They can turn around and push HD downloads even harder than they are now. I use to be a PC technician and I have had plenty of exsperience with MS and solving problems because of MS. In the early days of computers some thought that IBM was the bad evil company. But it ended up being MS and there monopolistic way of taking over there compition or just running over them like a gigantic steam roller. MS has its moments and has put out some good products so please do not see this as a MS can do nothing right, just at least 80% wrong. I just do not buy into the MS issued propaganda that MS is this great wonderful company that leads the way.

As many of us know we can only comment on the articles we come across. We all can not be on the net all the time and there is a good chance most of us will still miss on articles that others may have seen. Personally I do believe that if WB goes format exclusive it will most likely be Blu-ray. There is allways the chance that WB could go HD-DVD as well especially if Toshiba can sway them with cash. That's not to say that Sony would not try the same approach if they could gain another exclusive studio. The third thing that could happen is that WB ether comes out and says they are staying format neutral. They could also let CES come and go and choose to say nothing but continue to remain format neutral.

Personally I would like to see WB go Blu-ray so that it might help the format war to end much sooner if possible. Blu-ray will have at least two more brands selling players next year, (Denon and Marantz). What new brand has Toshiba brought on board to offer HD-DVD players? Onkyo is supposed to offer players but they are not really Onkyo players, but rebadge Toshiba's.

I own both HD-DVD and Blu-ray and they are both very good products. I however feel that Blu-ray brings a little more to the table as a format. And Blu-ray also has more studio and hardware backing, we all know this. IMHO it is not a good sign that HD-DVD releases for the first quarter of 2008 look thin. I also does not look good that Toshiba is the only company making HD-DVD players. Why is it that no one else is offering HD-DVD players? I own a first generation HD-DVD player and I would rather buy a higher end HD-DVD player with both HDMI 1.3 and bitstream output of Dolby True HD and DTS-HD MA. I might have to settle for a Toshiba player but I would like to have something nicer than a slim low dollar Toshiba. That is why my current Sony BDP-S300 is going to be upgraded to a Denon DVD-2500BTCI next year.

If the format war ends in 2009 and HD-DVD does end up loosing I will just get the best player that is available at the time. Maybe the hardware companies are not convinced that HD-DVD will be around very long? Otherwise why wouldn't they be offering us HD-DVD players? Toshiba really needs to bring other companies onboard to offer HD-DVD players. And they need brands that the average consumer will buy in large numbers. It would be great to see a company like Meridian make a player but that would not help sales of players as most consumers are not going to run out and buy a high dollar Meridian.

Hell if I won 100 million plus lottory I would be happy to bribe Meridian to build a HD-DVD player and or a Blu-ray player.

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Yes. He is a more common fixture over at the AVS Insider thread. I believe he is a hardware/software reviewer at an HT website (forgot which one). You may just want to shoot him an e-mail if you have questions for him.

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IMHO opinion Dave,

I doubt WHV will go BD exclusive only.

I believe in the end it will be HD-DVD or neutraility. I guess most of us here can objectively admit that WHV seems to favor HD-DVD, and it appears to be their template for encodes and features on HD optical. Quite a few of WHV's top titles still have not appeared on BD. As Adam stated, the software sales from their persepective is a wash. On the hardware side, It would be great if Denon & Marantz produced HD-DVD players, and they still may (Denon's Jeff Talmadge has said they're talking with Toshiba), but I don't think this will have any bearing on WHV's decision. If HD-DVD appears to be gaining a dominant foothold, then the hardware makers will come in due time. I think Adam has made it clear that MS is not the only company pursuing downloads, so it's pointless to continue to make them out to be the big bogeyman here. I also believe the fear of downloads taking over and physical media going away anytime soon is hogwash. The reality is that there's a large segment of the population who will always prefer to own their products rather than having them streamed over a network - which'll require an infrastructure that won't be in place for a long time.

Warner wanted to see more stand-alone players in homes this quarter, and it appears that HD-DVD has delivered in spades on this end. They've stated in the past that they did not want the success of the future HD format to be anchored on the success of a game machine (NOTE: IF someone can find the quote please post it, as I'm certain WHV stated this). Lastly, I think that Toshiba/MS combined have deeper pockets than Sony, and that Sony has already blown considerable wad on BD via the PS3. I think BD CAN survive awhile without WHV, but I think HD-DVD CANNOT. Neither can really afford to lose Warner, I just think HD-DVD can't afford to lose them the most.

We'll know in due time, but my money is on either continued neutrailty or HD-DVD.

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No questions for him per se. His sig here says Home Theater Spot. Although I acknowledge the coincidence of whatever similar comments he and then AG may have made--no dis' to him or you intended--I don't necessarily think being a reviewer makes him much of an insider on such a senior, corporate-level decision as this.

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While I don't consider myself an insider, it's possible we could have some of the same sources.

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I'm just a relative newbie in all this stuff, but if I understand correctly, that particular authoring issue doesn't necessarily suggest that WHV favors HD-DVD. It may well simply suggest that format is the lower common denominator of the two in certain respects, and thus, if WHV wants to streamline their authoring process as much as possible, they would need to cater to HD-DVD in those areas, eg. max/peak bit rate, overall disc capacity.


I don't really know myself, but some have suggested that this was partly due to the lack of profile 1.1 BD players in the past, not necessarily an indication of what WHV favored -- other than that they wanted to have their In-Movie Experience implemented, which they finally found a way to work around w/ the recent new release of T3. Well, I guess there's also the community viewing feature ala HP: OotP -- though that wasn't enough to stop them from releasing the BD version.

This notion, if true, would also follow from the other thought that WHV would like to streamline their authoring process (and feature set between formats) as much as possible.

OTOH, doesn't WHV receive royalties from use of the HD-DVD format? I'd think if there's any real reason for them to favor that format (in the long run), it'd be because of that.


This last point sounds most valid and plausible to me, if WHV does decide to go HD-DVD exclusive. In the end, they are all companies out to make $$$ as their (eventual) bottom lines. So it makes sense to think WHV will go whichever way they think will get them there.

For myself, I guess I've put my money w/ BD now w/ my recent jump into that format.

_Man_

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They seem to be changing. WHV recently encoded a special encode for "Shoot em Up". This may be a New Line thing but according to insiders at the BR forum, this is a trial for a format specific encode.

Whether that means something long term is unknown speculation at best.

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Yes, if the HD-DVD does come out with a "lesser" bit rate enconce it would be interesting to see if anybody can actually see the difference. And if so, how much better it would look.

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The answers to this I think will be fairly obvious even before they are written.

HD DVD supporters: There is no difference.
BR supporters: There is a difference and bandwidth is a huge concern!
Non HD owners: There is no difference and you should take a double blind test.

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Haha, too true.


I would imagine that each enconde would be from the same master at least, so it would be a true testament to the actual quality of either one.

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IMO anyone who believes that more than a teeny tiny minority of consumers (i.e., not nearly enough to make any difference to the studios and manufacturers) truly cares about audio formats beyond regular DD and DTS 5.1 is delusional.

Really. How many people even own equipment (or, for that matter, a room) capable of showcasing the difference? Most people don't even have 5.1 systems to begin with. Heck, not that many people have EARS that can tell the difference (and I am someone who certainly can).

I honestly hate to say it, but 7.1-channel and lossless audio formats are not going to be a major factor in the ultimate success of one or both HD disc formats. Movie selection and price are where this war will be won or lost (unless they give up trying to make HD a mass-market disc format, which I don't see happening).

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I'd put myself in a fourth category: There may be a difference, but a double blind test would be the only way to escape the trap of thinking it's true or not true because of preconceived notions (and I'd bet no one making pronouncements would go to the trouble of conducting such a test).

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If there was honestly a possiblity that they would be dropping a format in the near future...why on earth would they be running practical tests about optimizing for that format?
Up until now, I would have thought that it was far more likely they would drop Bd and go with HD DVD- but this flies in the face of that.

I still have a hard time believing they would abandon HD DVD, so I have to surmise that these rumours are just a whole lot of nothing.

again.

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There actually is a title that already did this. Flag of Our Fathers had two different encodes, one for HD DVD and one for blu-ray. You can see that the blu-ray version is ever so slightly sharper, but you have to enlarge the frame about 200% before you can see much of a difference. Also it's slightly apples and oranges because the HD DVD used VC-1 and the blu-ray used AVC.

The real test would be to do the same encode 4 times, one in AVC for HD DVD, one in VC-1 for HD DVD, and then the same thing for Blu-ray. Only then could you weed out the differences not only with the limitations of the formats, but also the codecs.

Doug

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Judging from these quotes from Home Media Magazine, it does look to me like something is brewing at WB and New Line:



These quotes are courtesy of Grubert over on the High Def Digests Forum. Here's a link to the thread over there:

Studio presidents spin and hype - I mean, look ahead to 2008 - High-Def Digest Forums

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the more I think about it- and in light of those recent quotes- the more I would be nervous if I were HD DVD only right now.

Up until this point it was assumed that Warner and HD DVD were tied at the hip due to some patents or royalties on the tech that Warner owns.
But think about this- given that
1)the HD market is growing slower than the DVD market did, and will likely have a very slow mass adoption
2)the fact that the market is spilt and that Sony, at the very least on the bd side, would continue to put out Bds for a PS3 base for several years after Warner defected to HD DVD
3) the window for the whole viability of HD media on disc is going to shortened compared to any previous format going back to VHS due to the inevibility of VOD and downloads

all means that there is a finite and constricted ROI that Warner can expect in regards to any patents or royalties.
It is likely that a consortium, that is fighting for its life, could easily come up with an economic incentive that could meet or exceed Warners projections of this royalty windfall...especially in a fractured market.
In fact, it would make perfect sense for Warner to leverage this in cutting some kind of immediate deal - especially since the (parent)company is currently all about becoming meaner and leaner.

Its likely in this case they would even sell their patents to the Bd group which would give warner cash, and Bd a stake in a much cheaper to produce medium it is in comepetition with. This would amount to a win-win for everyone except the HD DVD only companies. The Bd forum doesn't just make a pay out to Warner, they might stand to get some return if the competition doesn't let up in the future- and warner gets a cash infusion that is going to look good on its books and is fully in line with what they have recently begun concentrating on.

I'm thinking, at CES there is going to be a modest HD DVD presentation, and then shortly afterwards the Warner presentation is going to come on and blow the doors off- leading into a huge Bd pep rally the next day admist banner headlines of what Warner announced the day before.

Sure I could be wrong...but this does make some kind of sense...doesn't it?