*** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread *See Post 957, p. 32* - Page 22

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

But again, there is no evidence, even in a B1G1 sale, that software is being sold below cost. Thinner margins perhaps, but I doubt they are actually dipping below the cost of producing these discs.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

That's the best clutching at straws I've seen for a while.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I think the BOGOs will go away after Christmas.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

As to cost I think Aaron is referring to wholesale. Retailers regularly put DVDs on sale below cost to attract customers into the store. They are being less aggressive lately or are opting for retailer specific packages instead. A MSRP $29.99 DVD has a wholesale of just under $20. Of course larger chains with more buying power could negotiate additional discounts. Moving onto the B1G1 offers, someone other than the retailer is subsidising this. It could be the individual studios or it could be the BDA, or both. If the retailer is selling a heavily discounted copy and then giving you another copy you are walking out with two movies for much less than it cost the retailer to buy them. There are several ways to the dealer to get compensated. They could just keep track of the titles that they gave away and have their stock replenished for free, but based on all the challanges in doing this and the disadvantages to them, I cant believe they do this. They could have stock sent to them with the specific intent of having it offered in a B1G1 sale and any unsold copies would be returned to the studio. Or the sponsor can just send a check to cover the sales price difference. While B1G1 are great for us, I think the strategy will backfire in the long run as we adjust our shopping habits like I have done. I have such a backlog of discs to watch that I am only buying on B1G1 unless there is something big (Blade Runner, HP, etc). Not only does B1G1 cost them a lot now, the learned expectation of reduced sales prices will cost them a lot more in the future.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Maybe not, what better way to hook new BR/HD player owners that were given their new toys for Christmas then to offer software at discounted pricing?

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I imagine there are going to be some major post-Christmas door crashers on both players and software, targeting both those who got a player for Christmas and those who want to show off the HD display they got for Christmas. I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong; I hear it tastes like chicken.

Re: Amazon BOGO sale on HD DVDs 12/11/07

Reggie,

I was thinking it could be international sales of the disc. At that price, the savings from the US dollar to the Euro or Pound could make the discs cheaper even with shipping costs. We might see higher sales on box sets due to the extra demand from outside the US.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

The international sales theory has a big hole in it. First, bluray sales of Planet
Earth have held up very well as well. Second, it seems that international sales would give a huge boost to hd-dvd. I have not seen any evidence of that on any other titles. It is what it is but bluray people can't accept it.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Hack Attack: Official Blu-ray Site Redirects to HD DVD Site (UPDATED) | High-Def Digest

Some of these a**holes are quite desperate..

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

And what exactly makes you think this is the work of desperate individuals rather than the typical hacker who happens to love a practical joke? Anyone can see the potential humour in this, even if it was vice versa.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Well Jari K I will agree about the a**hole coment as that is what those hackers are. And I do not think it was anything more than some retard with nothing else to do hacking in and messing with the Blu-ray site. These jerks do it to websites all the time and it just happened to be Sony's Blu-ray site. This could have easily happened to the HD-DVD site as well and it may end up happening later on, you just never know?

If it was not for these loosers we would not have web sites being messed with and all the viruses that are floating around the internet. Hackers are the terrorists of the Internet!

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Well, if you read Bill Hunt's blog today (something I was VERY hesistant to do btw), he pretty much makes it clear that this kind of behavior is pretty symptomatic of HD-DVD supporters (I guess Blu-ray supporters are beyond hacking websites and engaging in arrogant obnoxious behavior?!). I guess It never occured to Mr. Hunt that this could've just been a random attack that hackers frequently carry out - and probably had nothing at all to do with the format war.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Which is exactly what I think it was.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Best Buy has a buy 2 get 1 free HD DVD sale after Christmas. I doubt these are done.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

They won't be done until there is a clear "winner" of the format war.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Or more realistically, when they both lose.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

HMM Dec 30 - Jan 5, 2008



Titles Released Dec. 11, 2007
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Warner)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Warner)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner)
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner)
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Warner)
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (Warner)
High School Musical 2 (Walt Disney)
The Legend of Zorro (Sony)
Lost: The Complete Third Season (Disney)
Rent (Sony)
SOS! Tokyo Metro Explorers: The Next (Bandai Visual)

The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal)
Freedom: 3 (Bandai Visual)
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Warner)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Warner)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner)
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner)
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Warner)
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (Warner)
Picture This (Ally Distribution)

Percentages
BD / HD
61 / 39 Week
65 / 35 Year
62 / 38 Since Inception

Top 10 Titles
1 The Bourne Ultimatum HD 100
2 POTC: AWE BD 65.23
3 HP: TOOTP BD 64.58
4 HP: TOOTP HD 53.64
5 PE HD 22.49
6 Superbad BD 17.46
7 Casino Royale BD 15.24
8 HP Gift Set BD 14.49
9 300 BD 14.38
10 Spider-Man 3 BD 13.87


Number of Titles in Top 10
BD:7
HD:3

Weeks Won In 2007
Blu-ray 50 IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
HD DVD 0

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Looks like a minor victory for HD-DVD, as Bourne did the best for a single format disc, while Harry Potter 5 sold much closer than a previously standard 2:1 ratio for BD:HD.

If I were to venture a guess, these results will only delay any further change in Warner's stance, and I'd expect the studio to be neutral for a good while still.

However, it is worth noting that Blu-ray titles seem to have less of a sales drop off on the average over several weeks.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

There has not been a 2:1 sales ratio for the last eight or nine months. Closer to 1.5:1 or 1.6:1.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I used to think this, but I am hearing too many rumblings from both sides who are pressuring WB. I think they will be exclusive by the end of January and I would bet an annoucment at CES. it is not WB studios making the decision, but their parent company. Sales will have nothing to do with it it will be about the $$$ both sides are offering. If you look at the full numbers going back to the start, sales for WB are pretty close to even between the formats for WB, with HD DVD in a very slight lead. How can this be with 300 having sold 100K more? sinple Batman Begins, the Matrix, etc. There are still multiple WB titles that are HD DVD only. With the exception of 300, most of their other titles are very close in sales between the formats. Finding Nemo sold more copies on DVD on it's first day of release than both formats have sold since inception, so the BD sales lead means nothing to them either. If they go BD it will be because of the money offered and for no other reason. Same if they go HD DVD.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Sales wise there is no reason for Warner to abandon their neutral stance. They are getting the best of both worlds. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix was the number one seller in hd. Even if blu-ray beat hd-dvd slightly,
you are still talking about 130,000 being sold in the first week. There is no doubt that Bladerunner will do nearly as well or better than blu-ray. Again the combined hd sales would probably vault it into the top 10.

My other observations are that once again Planet Earth on hd-dvd adds to it's lead over blu-ray. And again it comes down to hit movies. Hd-dvd did not have enough to match bluray. Movies are a very cylical business with some studios being hot one year and cold the next and vice-versa. The blu-ray studios are hot this year. The first quarter of 2008 looks fairly even with neither side having any huge films coming out exclusive..

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Wow Adam.

First Dave Vaughn and now you.

It is becoming hard to dismiss these rumors about WHV choosing a side, and it looks like I may be wrong (I thought they'd also remain neutral for the forseeable future). I know that WHV is still scheduled to be at the HD-DVD press event at CES, but of course, this could mean nothing. An announcement at CES would definitely be the shot heard around the world, or it could come soon after the event. I know that I spoke to a video department manager at a local Circuit City last week and he told me that retailers are also putting pressure on Warner because publishing titles on two HD formats creates consumer confusion and takes up unnecessary shelf-space. Whichever side WHV chooses, retailers will view this as one step to ending the format war entirely. Retailers probably just don't think it's worth the shelf space with both formats selling very miniscule numbers relative to SD-DVD.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Reggie-I am hearing two much from insiders on both sides to doubt it. From what I hear both sides are still negotiating and no one from either side knows which way WB will go and probably won't until January 4th or 5th and then it will be under wraps for a few days until the public announcement. It is possible that WB could opt to stick it out for a while but I don't think so. Assuming WB chooses a side, the dominos will fall quickly. BD has been leaning on retailers to no longer carry HD DVD if WB chooses Blu, and HD DVD has been leaning on BD exclusive studios to at least turn neutral in WB chooses HD DVD. The format that WB doesn't choose will still be around for a little while, due to all the contractual obligations the studios have, but I suspect that it will be fading from view quickly by 2009.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I would have to strongly agree with that assessment as well Adam. Its hard to say what WB will do but we will most likely know what that decision is very soon. It would not be good for Toshiba if WB goes Blu-ray and that may convince another studio to ether go Blu or to consider going blu by summer time? We can all guess what will happen but I believe that WB said that they are seriously looking into going Blu-ray only.

So what ever WB decides it will most likely be one of the biggest stories out of CES. I for one am very interested in hearing what WB is going to do, are they going to go Blu only or will they stay neutral? One thing I feel WB needs to do is to stop releasing low bit rate audio tracks on there releases. They need to offer nothing but high bitrate dvd's and they need to release high bitrate lossy or preferably lossless audio. IMHO Fox is the leading cutting edge HDM studio at this time and WB could learn some things from Fox. Fox is releasing some of the best looking HD titles to start with. But they are also offering DTS-HD MA on almost all of there releases. To top it off alot of there releases offer D box tracks on there HDM. New Line Cinema is one of the first to offer 7.1 DTS-HD MA and that places them in the cutting edge catagory also. I am glad to see more and more lossless tracks being used, its a win win for us all.

I am just wondering when we will see 7.1 Dolby True HD tracks and which title will be the first to offer one? IMHO 7.1 tracks could help sell HDM and give some people a reason to upgrade there current DVD libraries. I have never been so excited about a format before. High Definition Media has given my the best reason to not only upgrade my HT equipment, but to also upgrade and buy a larger number of titles for my movie library.

CES is coming soon and at this rate we will all know what WB is going to do. The only question is will they stay neutral or go Blu-ray only? Can't wait to find out!

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Why would lossless audio convince ordinary people to upgrade their DVD collections, when SACD and DVD-A failed to convince people to upgrade from CD? Ostensibly, audio quality of music should be more important to consumers than the audio quality of movie sound tracks, yet consumers never adopted the hi rez music formats. Audio quality of movie sound tracks will have a neglible effect on the rate at which high def media is adopted.

The only things that will affect the rate of adoption of HDM are:

1) Stability of the HD market, meaning ONE format only.
2) The price of HDM in relation to standard DVD. If HDM prices do not fall rapidly to compete with SD-DVD then it will remain a niche, in relative terms.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I guess this is studio support talk that should be in the other thread?

Reggie: What Dave Vaughn comments are you referring to please?

Adam: So if WHV is leaning BD, then the amount of money being discussed is enough to exceed or otherwise be a more significant inducement than the revenue generated by Time Warner's stake in the (HD) DVD patent??

On a related side note, it's interesting to me the role that b&m retail is perhaps playing in this dance. I've been buying almost exclusively online for three years and HDM has not changed that--used for me and new for gifts. The "BOGOs" underscored that. As much attention as we here give to online purchasing, I have to remind myself that that is still not the case for the majority of (even younger) consumers: Best Buy, WalMart, etc. still generate a lot of sales. Frankly, part of me wishes that were not the case: a studio's format support decision could be made without the "encumbrance" of retail's shelf space concerns, which really is a next-to-moot issue fo rme personally as a largely online consumer.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I do not believe that lossless audio by itself will bring people to HDM. But its a big plus that HDM offers to the consumer. I there are plenty of people that want there movies to sound there best and are willing to spend a reasonable amount of money to get it. The record industry is a different matter and IMHO they have alienated there customers for the most part. And I believe that most people are tired of paying to much for music and not getting a good product. How may CD's have more than 1 or 2 good songs on them? I feel that most people feel that music is over priced and that movies are a better bargin at this particular time.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

So WB going HD-DVD only isn't a possibility?
Did WB or any of the insiders indicate that the only options for WB are staying neutral or being Blu-Ray exclusive?

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Dave,

Please post a link where WHV said they would be going Blu only or going neutral.

I do not believe they ever stated such a thing, but if you have some evidence please feel free to share it.

The truth is that no one knows for now except possibly the higher-ups at Time/Warner

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Paul -

Dave mentioned almost the exact same thing Adam just posted here in the AVS insider forum a few weeks ago. Namely, that he had heard insider rumblings that WHV would be choosing a side around the time of CES and that both sides were attempting to woo Warner. I also have yet to see any hard evidence that WHV is leaning either way. I think the BD group are probably a bit more zealous at pushing these rumors than their HD-DVD counterparts.

We'll all know in due time.