**Official HTF HD Formats Ind./Retailer/Studio Support Thread-*SEE POST 3176, p. 106* - Page 60

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

My friend and I went at 11 o clock to Minot's super walmart.


There were none to be seen, so we asked the guy.


Apparently, they had over 30 of them, and they were al gone by 8:30.



Over 30. I think this is gonna be huge for Toshiba. I wouldn't be surprised if they come saying over 100,00 sold this weekend.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

The Blu-Ray apologists are all over the map regarding this sale. Let me see if I can get this straight:

The problem with the format war is that it inhibits the mass adoption of HDM. However, this sale -- which is certain to be one of the top three new-user-generating events in the history of packaged HDM, if not the top -- is also a bad thing.

Exactly how do those two opinions make sense when held by the same person?

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Some simple math:

IF 100,000 A2s are sold today, that should translate into the sale of roughly an additional 100,000 (minimum) software HD-DVD sales per month, right? Which would be 25,000 per week.

So what does that do to the weekly sales numbers?

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

I would say that is being very, very, very optimistic.
I would shave off 1/3 of whatever the final total sales are to current users picking up a second or third player- and of whats left, probably 2/3 will continue to buy DVD versions regularly with maybe an HD discs sprinkled in here or there for a big 'event' release in the fall or spring.

In other words, after this season, attatch rates for HD DVD are likely to fall to near Bd levels.

I think Bill Hunt is almost entirely disingenious in his arguments, but I have to agree with him that this promotion is likely not to move as much software in the future as you would think from the hype and enthusiasm its generated.
A slight bump, sure- but HDMs will remain a niche appeal item for some time to come.

but its never a bad thing to give away the razor if you expect to make your money in the future selling the blades.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

About the attach rate.



I think it could fall....but I think alot of these will definately be gifts.

Obviously people will buy movies too for supplemental gifts.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

HD-DVD will simply have to supplement the rock-bottom hardware prices with spectacular software prices as well. It will simply make no sense to have one without the other. Universal has rarely (In fact, I don't think ever) had MAJOR sales on their HD-DVD titles, and they have released the most so far on that format as far as catalog titles go. Many of these titles haven't sold very well, so why not get rid of some of that stock collecting dust on retailer store shelves? They should either offer BOGO specials for a few weeks to coincide with the sales on the A2-3, or simply have a half-off sale on all catalog titles. I agree that the attach rates for the stand-alones will go down if these savings remain great on the hardware with no great software incentives.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

I bet Toshiba/Universal/Paramount/Dreamworks/Wal Mart have more tricks up their sleaves. We only found out about this on Thursday. Who knows what else we might find out next week or the week after?

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

I think the only accurate prediction one can make about the HDM format wars is that upcoming events are totally unpredictable. There just are soooo many variables. What I thought might take years to accomplish has been accomplished in just a matter of months....HD players selling for less than $100. Simply amazing!
So far I have amassed a small library of HD titles and I can honestly say, on average, I paid less than $16 per title thanks to 2 for 1 sales and Warners 25% off sale.
Years ago, after I bought a laser disc player during a "firesale" for $400, it took 6 or 7 years to finally amass a collection totaling 9 LDs because this media was so damned expensive and stayed expensive! Hint....Sony needs their own "firesale."
Who knows what's going to happen in the next few months but one thing is certain....it will be amazing.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

And it's all great for the customer. Think of how many people will now be enjoying low cost, hi def DVD media for years thanks to Wal-Mart's sale today.

Bill Hunt, and others, need to rethink whether this "war" is really all that bad for the consumer.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

It looks like you guys don't know that they actually had all 15 of the perfect offer HD-DVD for $15.


The new perfect offer discs. They had all 15 on sale on my Wal-Mart. I think that helps.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Yes, I have. Honestly, the experience was no different than watching a Blu-Ray disc. But I think you are missing the point. The issue is not so much that HD-DVD cannot deliver the same quality as Blu-Ray today, but rather will it be able to do so in the long run, if/when the capacity and bandwith limitations of HD-DVD become an issue. Anyhow, my logic is quite simple. When two foramts provide the same quality and functions today, but one of them has a higher capacity and bandwith than the other, it seems logical to go with the format that has the higher capacity & bandwith just in case that ever becomes an issue. In my assesment this will become an issue sooner than later, that is, if it is not already an issue, as rumored to be the case with some recent high profile HD-DVD release. If the only justification for choosing the format with lesser capacity and bandwith, is it's lower current cost, then it is a rather short sighted reason. Presumably the studio software pricing will be the same for both formats, thus the only difference in cost from the consumer's perspective, is the initial difference in price of hardware, which too for equivalent level of players is already quite similiar now. It is possible, however remote the chances might be, that HD-DVD might win this war. But that in itself would not mean that the right format won. The world after all has had to live with the follies of the US masses in the case of VHS. I just hope we are not saddled with a similiar situation because of the short sightedness shown due to a small difference in initial hardware pricing.

I am glad we can agree upon something atleast.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Oh there will be some software sold in the next two months because of this. No question there.

It's what happens after that that should worry ALL fans of HDMs- red, blue or purple.

Are these same bargain pouncers going to pay any kind of a premium in the future for a HD title?
Are these the people who are going to pick up something like Sleepy Hollow and think "wow, the grain is rendered with so much more agility in HD...I need to replace more of my collection asap"?

Most likely, for the people who aren't adding an additional deck to their households, or selling it off on ebay or Craigslist, this will be used primarily as a DVD player, with (after this Xmas) an occasional novelty purchase on HD...which depending upon how the movie was lit and shot, may or may not lead to more novelty purchases.

What is going to go up precipitously is the number of posts complaining how such and such a catalog title "isn't worth it" or "isn't a good example of HD".

of that I have no doubt.

even worse, in the near future studios will be more and more likely to massage transfers to appeal to these people.
Can you say more DVNR + EE?

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Are movies going to be longer in the future? Obviously not. So what "demands" will be placed on HDDVD that aren't here today?

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

I disagree. I think quality will continue to improve as software sales increase. More money and resources will be spent to create stellar transfers - just like with DVD. I think DVD mastering has improved overall as a result of mass consumer adoption.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Ryan, I see people (and worse, reviewers) all the time 'blaming' the 'deficencies' of perfectly fine HDMs on 'poor, outdated trasfers'- when what theyreally are having a problem with is how the particular film was photographed in the first place.
I see this ALL the time.
Such and such needs a new transfer because its too grainy/soft/flat/low contrast/destaturated.

Does anyone here know if the differences with the new Full Metal Jacket are do more to the new transfer being more faithful to the source, or because it has been 'tweaked' (contrast increased/ colors more saturated/ higher frequencies filtered)?

Pretty soon I expect all new catalog release from the 80s and beyond to magically look like The Untouchables.
And a lot of people will likely be very happy and satisfied.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Yeah, right, its walmart's idea to have this sale on the same day as sony is releasing the 40gig ps3. Not a chance. This is all toshiba.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

I've been wondering about this hypothetical future that we need to have extra bandwidth for. Are movies going to suddenly have much longer running times? Is the information on the film emulsion suddenly going to vastly increase?

Frankly at this point the trend seems to be going toward films that have less information not more, IE super35 and digital cameras.

I think its fairly clear that for 99% of applications HD DVD has more than enough bandwidth to produce very impressive results. I think the Troy Director's cut has proved that HD DVD can handle a movie that is 3 hours and 20 min and still include a lossless audio track.

Doug

Edit: By the way has anyone noticed tonight that Amazon is having a 30% off HD DVD sale?

PPS: it looks like thats just Amazon's regular price, they are just advertising it now as 30% off.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

The BDA will need a hell of a lot more than $400 40gig PS3's to compete with the sub $200 Toshibas imho. I also believe that this "sale" was planned well in advance. We all knew something was brewing with HD-DVD several months ago with rumors regarding cheap players, and Paramount stated that this was one of the things which convinced them to go HD-DVD exclusive. Now, we are supposed to believe that these Walmart commercials/promotions were slapped together in haste to offset yet ANOTHER PS3 onslaught (echos of Nov 2006 anyone?) AGAIN. I said one year ago that the PS3 WOULD NOT & COULD NOT win this war for the BDA. With standalone players for HD-DVD now at mass market prices, the PS3 will begin to become less and less relevant in this war, especially once the BD standalones reach mass market levels. Sony will simply have to start placing the focus back on the PS3 as a GAME system and begin offering some stellar titles so they may reclaim more market share from X-box 360 & Wii and make good with all of those gamers they've alienated.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

We already need it for HD audio. This is no hypothetical future.

The extras aren't in HD though. Big difference.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

They already have "HD" audio. Troy has True HD. And DD+ is "HD" audio, it just happens to be lossy.

The extras may not have been shot in HD and if they were they could EASILY be put on a second disc.

Doug

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

If you think some low rent toshiba players sold thru walmart at $200 are going to outperform ps3s at $400, be my guest.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

$98 actually. And at that price...it might.

Doug

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Not to mention that the attach rates of the PS3 & the A2's will most certainly be completely different.

The major PS3 impact on the HD war has already come and gone imho.

We still have yet to hear what Microsoft intends to do this Holiday season. They've been awfully quiet on this front, but I'm betting we can most certainly expect some surprises in terms of hardware pricing.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

I'll GLADLY be your "guest."

Those Toshiba's are and WILL be going for less than $200. I don't know if you've been following developments, but it appears that other major retailers have followed suit and are offering the A2 under $150. There are reports that the new A3 is now being offered by some retailers for $169-$179 with five free movies.

What the PS3 needs to inspire sales is more blockbuster GAMES not movies.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

It's gotta be a tough few days for Blu-ray. Software sales are creeping up on Blu-ray even BEFORE the sale and now the hardware prices have plummeted in the span of only a few days. Warner going exclusive (something I think will happen) will be the killing blow. I was hoping dual players would become affordable and both formats would survive, but it looks like Toshiba has gotten to the magic price point first.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Troy is not at 24 bit though. That's the point.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Toshiba said that these were all sold to Walmart at standard pricing. Walmart decided to have an early sale on them and use them as a loss leader.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

He'll never rethink it. It's very simple for him: anything that benefits BR is good, anything that benefits HD furthers the format war and is bad.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Nothing humble about your opinion. I've been a critic of Bill Hunt, but his comments about fanatical myopic hd dvd zealots are ringing loud and clear now.

The major impact of the ps3 has come and gone, eh, pal? Allright, you guys just babble away like your typical fanboys, this place is rapidly going down the crapper. Format war over my ass, this place has never been worse.

Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Industry/Retailer/Studio Support Thread

Who cares what Bill says about HD-DVD fans.


I only care about what he says about BD and HD-DVD itself.


It's embarrassing that people email him to accuse him or say this or that, but with the things he says, it's obvious he'd get some sort of response.