Re: UFC Ongoing Thread
Josh, you made some good points that I want to respond to so here goes.
1. This is the most important. Don't confuse depth with name recognition. There is a difference between the 2. The WEC has talent depth that doesn't have name recognition. Affliction has name recognition but not a lot of depth, and the UFC has a fair amount of both for what they're doing now.
2. On depth of the WEC. It is a mistake to compare the WEC to the UFC when it comes to determining depth. The UFC has been on PPV since 1993, it has been under Zuffa control since 2001 and has been on SpikeTV since 2005. The WEC has never been on PPV, has been under Zuffa control since December of 2006 and has been on Versus (a much lower profile network) since June of 2007. So all things considered I think what that promotion has been able to accomplish in really a short amount of time is remarkable. I think comparing it to the UFC which has had a head start and far better resources is comparing apples to oranges. A more fitting though still not perfect comparison would be comparing the WEC to EliteXC. EliteXC has 2 bankable stars in Kimbo Slice and Gina Carano and Kimbo's star is pretty much only viable if he keeps winning.
3. A lot of your arguments are valid from your point of view. The trouble is that when I wrote my original post explaining why the UFC is in serious danger of over-extending itself and watering down the market with shows, I didn't really consider your feelings on the subject. Please don't take that the wrong way, the fact is that I didn't really consider my feelings on the subject either.
We are not the people who are going to determine when enough is too much, to steal the words of Yogi Bear.
You are a knowledgeable fan. You read about what is happening in MMA online, and you come here and talk about it (and maybe other places as well) and you probably have a good idea of every match that is on Saturday's UFC show even if you couldn't list them all off the top of your head. I'm obviously in that same category at worst and realistically a category or 2 beyond that devoting much of my time to combat sports and a website on the subject.
But most of the people who will watch UFC 88 this weekend aren't going to know any of the fights on the show outside of the main event and any other that the UFC may happen to mention in a commercial for the show. As an example, I am looking forward to Martin Kampmann Vs. Nate Marquardt on Saturday, I think it will be a good fight and I'm turning in to a real fan of Kampmann. I'm also annoyed that Jason Lambert Vs. Jason MacDonald and Thiago Tavares Vs. Kurt Pellegrino are dark fights not guaranteed to make the air.
But for a vast majority of people who will watch that show on Saturday they have no idea those 3 fights are even going to take place, they won't know about the Kampmann Vs. Marquardt fight until they see it in the graphic or until the guys head to the Octagon and they'll have no idea on the other 2 fights unless they air.
The fact is, for most people it is main event or bust. The main event sells the show, it gets them interested and all of the other stuff all the other fights are things they have to sit through until GSP or Chuck Liddell show up.
So as the UFC 91 card became available, you and I might have said things like Florian Vs. Stevenson are going to put on a show, Gabriel Gonzaga is usually pretty interesting and on down the line. But if most people had looked at the headline fight and saw Brock Lesnar Vs. Cheick Kongo that would have been the end of that right there. So you telling me that you're impressed with the depth of the UFC shows now doesn't mean much because you know too much. In that sense, your knowledge works against you and again, I mean that as a compliment.
Let me try it another way. Do you remember how excited we all were when Fight Night 13 was being put together earlier this year for April 2? Remember how there was an outcry for the show to be 3 hours long because of all the good fights that wouldn't be able to air if it were only 2? Well, all of that talk meant nothing as the show did a 1.1 rating with an average audience of 1.3 million viewers (I looked it up because I couldn't remember off hand) and that is on the low end of what the SpikeTV specials have done, in fact I don't recall another UFC card doing a worse rating than that. So for all the depth we thought that show had and for all of the name fighters it supposedly contained, the rating was nothing special as compared to other cards. The hardcore ravings didn't mean much to the general public.
Here are the UFC's bankable stars, the guys who have a proven track record of moving business in the eyes of the casual fans: Chuck Liddell, Georges St. Pierre, Forrest Griffin, Quinton Jackson, B.J. Penn, Matt Hughes, Randy Couture, Rich Franklin and Brock Lesnar. Wanderlei Silva hasn't had to prove he's in that group yet as his fight against Jardine was the third most high-profile fight at UFC 84 and he fought Chuck Liddell on a show headlined by Hughes and GSP so how much he means is not clear. Anderson Silva isn't in this group yet, his March fight against Dan Henderson did one of the lowest buyrates of the year and if you take out the shows from England it did the lowest. Being on Spike helped his cause somewhat but we won't know to what extent until after numbers for the Cote fight come in.
So for the vast majority of the UFC audience the fact that they get to watch UFC 89 for free on Spike isn't going to make them any more likely to order UFC 90 the next week. In fact, it will probably satisfy them enough that they feel like they can skip UFC 90 and save their money for UFC 91 just a few weeks later. Even though I think UFC 90 will have a pretty good and entertaining card when all is said and done, it being sandwiched between a free show and a show with a huge main event is going to hurt the buyrate because most people are going to pick and choose and with a main event featuring Patrick Cote who may be a good fighter but means nothing to most people, that's the one that will get left out.
So even if you as a hardcore fan are willing to watch all of these shows even if guys from the above mentioned list are no where to be found, it doesn't mean much because there are more of the main event or bust types than there are of you.
Dave Meltzer has been chronicling the business side of MMA since the beginning of the UFC and also deals with the casual Vs. Hardcore question in both MMA and Pro Wrestling (MMA and Pro Wrestling are more similar than people who are fans of one, the other but not both would like to admit).
here is a piece that Dave wrote looking at UFC's expansion plans for next year and the risks involved.