*** Official SERENITY Discussion Thread - Page 7

I agree. And it may make some mad here, but basically this is how I feel. I did see Serenity, with my son, a bday present from him. $13.00 for the two of us to see it in the early afternoon, (one time). The DVD would have only cost a few dollars more, the whole family could see it, and I'd be able to rewatch it whenever I felt like it. ANd not have to shlep out to the theater, put up with people walking around, (including an usher with a flashlight), cell phone going off, etc. This is why the last film I saw in the theater, before Serenity, was Revenge of the Sith.

Oh, by the way, I did like Serenity. I just can't believe they killed off 2 of the crew.

The first 9 minutes are online:

http://video.vividas.com/CDN1/3929_S...web/index.html

Predictions have the film dropping about 50% this weekend. I'm predicting a total gross of just under 25 million US.

It really depends on overseas grosses now.

We're screwed as far as the US$80mil target goes. If I recall correctly, general rule of thumb as the world markets generating about as much as the North American market; that'll put us around US$50mil ... short of the US$80mil specified as necessary for a sequel.

Best bet is that Universal is serious about DTD and doesn't have the usual studio idiots in charge of that program. Direct to Video had bad connotations because the content was usually crap; but there's nothing inheriently wrong with the Direct-To model, just what's being put into it.

I for one would be quite happy to pay directly for episodic content (movie or series) if the content is to my liking. And a DTD market should support as many niches as there are dollars; no competition for a 'broad audience' necessary.

Does anyone remember what television ratings for the show were? How many people ended up regularly watching Firefly? Also, how many units of the DVD set have been bought? I'd think that everyone who bought the DVD set probably has seen the movie so far. Do the figures suggest that everyone who was watching the show has seen the movie yet?

Neil

Loved the movie and went to my local Best Buy last night to buy a second set of the Firefly series on DVD (to loan out and help spread the word) and they are SOLD OUT!

I may have to mail order them!

Yeah, you're going to have to mail order em. I haven't found a single copy on shelves for the past month and a half, actually.

Neil: The ratings were pretty damned low. I think only one or two episodes ever cracked 3.5

Blame the big-wigs @ Fox for the low ratings, ... they played the Episodes in random order.

The actual Episode #1 "Serenity", ... the 2 hour (let's introduce the principal cast) pilot aired in December 20, 2002!!!

The first aired Firefly show "The Train Job" (September 20, 2002), was, ... (I think don't have my set in front of me) Episode #3 or #4!!!

Phil

Daily Dose of Serenity shows the cast was in London at HMV as of yesterday for the UK premiere:

Click here for "Nathan at the UK premiere, and Nathan, Joss & Summer doing a signing in HMV in London at lunchtime today"

I have to agree with others who've posted that if the US BO suffers that it's mostly due to 2 things:

1. Universal marketing to fans rather than everyone. Since I'm a fan I didn't notice this, but after reading posts here, it's very clear now. If I wasn't a fan, while the trailer would look interesting, it didn't give enough sense that this was a classic "Saturday afternoon sci-fi, action show". If I wasn't a fan already, I may not have ventured out because of....

2. Cost of movies vs. DVDs. For me, going to a movie is a big deal. Not so much for the price for a ticket (I have a local theater that shows new releases for only $2) but because of other reasons - I have a family, so in most cases I have to take them, which gets expensive because of concessions, or I have to somehow convince my wife that I need to see a movie by myself. So, it's a big production. Add to that, that I am like a lot of people that would rather sit at home with a DVD, for most movies. No crowds, when I want, pause if I need, closed captions if I need. Basically, at my direction. Plus, DVDs show up only 2-3 months after the movie, ususally. So, in the end, unless the movie is guaranteed somehow (family fare animation or sci-fi epic) most likely I'll wait for the DVD.

While I still hold out hope that Serenity will hit its 80mil mark, I'm not confident. But I also am heartened because people here have a good idea - DTD. I do think that Firefly could exist quite well this way. Given the choice, I'd rather see a DTD series than sequels; something like 10 episodes a season. More character development, more stories. Not sure what kind of budget would be given either way, though.

But, this, and other ideas, have been presented before. Hopefully Serenity does well enough to keep Universal interested. There's a lot of fans out there that certainly are.

Box Office Mojo is predicting a 7th place weekend at $4.8 million.

I guess there's always the chance that their prediction underestimates the word of mouth factor, but I highly doubt it.

I've seen this excuse about Serenity's performance pop up on many forums but to me its a non-starter since its equally applicable to all movies released. Yeah its probably a reason that revenues are down across the board but it doesn't make $10 million any better of an opening in Serenity's case.

I do agree that Universal's approach to marketing was botched. I can't fault their effort but they really did a horrid job of making the film seem accessible to everyone. I think the film could have opened to $15 million if they just did the standard action/sci-fi barrage of clips from the movie with zero references to "cult phenomenon", "Buffy/Angel", and "Joss Whedon".

Then again that is similar to the approach taken with "The Island" so maybe I'm off base. And that should really comfort Joss- Michael Bay had a much, much more disastorous sci-fi box office outing this year.



I wonder if Whedon would be involved in a Direct to DVD effort? Since he's trying to be a "film" director now I imagine that he wouldn't consider it a good career move to direct a "straight to video" movie. But he could turn it over to Firefly Co-Executive Producer Tim Minear who Whedon has already approached for a similar Spike TV Movie.

The current economics of DVD would certainly make this an interesting experiment and Firefly/Serenity is once again a good property to experiment on. I truly believe that, all other things being equal, if Firefly had premiered today the economics of TV on DVD and its effect on the ratings of subsequent seasons would have seen Fox give Firefly at least two seasons to catch on.

It's not just that, but I think it becomes a very big factor for these movies like Serenity that have big enough budgets that they need to open well but aren't flashy enough to draw crowds based on sheer spectacle.

I do agree that Universal's marketing didn't help it at all and a supreme marketing effort was what the movie demanded. Just saying "From the creator of Buffy the Vampire Slayer..." probably kept a few people home, because Buffy is still regarded as a laughingstock by a large number of people who never watched it.

Having never seen the show, and not being a fan of Whedon's previous efforts (I hated Buffy)... I went to see Serenity last weekend with some reservations. I had heard the stories of the show being canceled, the fan support, the positive reviews... but was that all from geeky kids on the internet with too much free time, or was there actually something to this?

I ended up loving the movie, right from the first scene. The film never lost my attention. For a newcomer who has never even seen a clip of the show, I was able to grasp the concept, plot, style and characters (despite no real character introduction) pretty easily.

My feelings are that the show/movie does gear towards younger fans...as did Buffy, etc.. but that hardly matters, it is very well made. There were one or two cheesy cliche moments I could have done without (River posing after slaying the Reavers, etc), but all of those I can get past. I thought it was great to look at and I really liked the cast...Especially the captain. I walked out of the theater a fan.

I ended up putting the entire Firefly series in my netflix que as soon as I got home and received my first disc on Tuesday. I have to say... this was a really special show and I'm sorry I missed it when it originally aired. It was before I got a Tivo, so I wasn't watching many TV shows in 2002. I think the pilot episode is one of the best pilots for an scifi action series ever made. It is well written and sets up everything perfectly. Its funny, but I never knew River and Simon were a part of the cast of the show, I thought they were new characters for the film. I was pleasantly surprised to see them listed in the opening credits for the pilot. I love the western aspects in the show, that I didn't notice in the film...and I love the pacing of some of the episodes. The cast and characters are excellent and I have yet to view an episode I didn't love.

I just finished disc two last night and can't wait to dive into the final two discs this weekend. I almost feel special that I have new episodes to watch, but its a shame the show didn't even get a full first season and there are only a handful left for me. I definitely plan on seeing the film again after I finish the series. This time through different eyes...as a fan. It will be like watching a totally different film. I'm gonna try and lend these dvds out to some friends before shipping them back to netflix, maybe I can turn someone else on to it...I'm certainly glad I got turned onto it. I hope it has a good second weekend.

why are people saying the movie flopped? This is Firefly, not Star Wars. $10 million is quite good considering that there was only a limited audience of Whedon-fans who were going to see it. $10 million opening weekend for a SW, LOTR and Harry Potter movie is very bad, but for a short-lived TV series from three years ago with only one cast member who is at all familiar to moviegoers as a character actor (Adam Baldwin), very good. It was nowhere near the #2 series when it aired, yet it was the #2 film.

Plus, I know a lot of people who were holding off till the second weekend to see it, so don't count it out totally. I am going to see it next week, I haven't finished the DVD set yet (just got it a few days ago)

actually, that is your loss big time. Buffy and Angel were both great shows (and many critics and fans agree with me), it is the fact that Joss Whedon was the creator of Buffy and Angel that even caused me (and many others) to check out Firefly. Honestly, you're missing out if you like Joss' work and have never seen a frame of those two shows.

I tried to like Buffy, but found it impossible. It's one of the things that made me hesitant to get into Serenity. I also find Buffy's fanbase annoying... too many kids. To me Buffy just reaked of an X-Files rip off (even the formula of mythology episodes and stand alone episodes mixed into a season), except mix X-Files with Dawson's Creek. I also find Gellar to be very unlikeable on screen, so that didn't help either. To each their own.

X-Files? I can see Supernatural being an X-Files ripoff but not Buffy. I suppose the Riley/Initiative episodes were but that was about it.

Once again, would you actually prefer that only those in the Cult-O-Joss see this movie? Some badge of bitter pride?

What if there's a new science fiction movie, with no A-list stars. No built-in audience, so that would mean that if it made zero dollars on opening weekend, that would be acceptable?

There's no point in marketing to Firefly fans -- they were going to see it anyway. The idea would be to get other people to see it. Unfortunately, many factors, like a long history of hyping crap and shorter DVD windows makes this more and more difficult.

To compare, if you don't consider Keanu Reeves an A-lister (back then) The Matrix opened with about $28M (on about 30% more screens). Slightly less than half its budget.

Serenity made about one-fourth its budget. It hasn't flopped yet, but it could.

out of curiousity, what did I say that merited that snide response? It was obvious that the movie had a small cult audience guarenteed to it and that a lot of moviegoers would be oblivious and skip it.

This is not like when the X-Files and South Park movies came out, those shows were a lot more well-known in the mainstream. Mostly only Joss fans realize he had a third show in his repetoire besides Buffy and Angel, this movie is for those people, like the South Park movie was for South Park fans and the X-Files movie was for X-Files fans.



Titanic made about 1/8th it'd budget opening week, it ended up making three times it's cost. People forget that Joss fans are a loyal batch who will go back to see Serenity a number of times, and tell all their friends to go see it. Serenity could likely make back it's cost, the second weekend is crucial to see if this will be a nice sleeper hit like The 40 Year Old Virgin or if it's going to plunge and be a major bomb.

I'm guessing you haven't seen much beyond the second season of Buffy. Not that it doesn't owe a debt to X-Files because there are definitely some similar elements but starting with the latter half of Buffy's second season, the show's formula is completely unlike X-Files since Buffy mixes its "mythology" in with the standalones. Buffy is a much more cohesive, serialized, and character focused experience than X-Files ever was. X-Files was about plot far more than character and Buffy was completely the opposite- the storyarcs were no great shakes and often throwaway but the character arcs were what made the show shine.

FWIW, I am not trying to "convert" you or even trying to get you to give the show another try. I just think you are off base on this comparison. I say that as a huge fan of both X-Files and Buffy.

I love Joss's output as much as anyone but I think you are far, far overestimating the fan base here.

Well, you would obviously know better than I would...I am just going off what I have come accross in syndication. Bottom line is there would have been no Buffy series if not for the X-Files, and from what I saw...it just borrowed too heavily...but in a teeny bopper sort of way. None of the handful of episodes I have seen did anything for me. Also, I found the cast to be annoying especially Gellar. Just not my cup of tea, but glad I got opened up to Firefly....which is what this thread is supposed to be about.

well, I'm not saying in any way it's going to make $600 million, or even $100. But I think if this second weekend holds on to a great % of the first weekend, that recouping it's budget could be very likely, considering I know a lot of people who plan to see Serenity again and those who were waiting to see it.

It cost $40 million, if the second weekend holds on strongly, there's a good chance the movie has to at least break even. 40 Year Old Virgin opened with $20 million or so and good word of mouth has caused it to surpass $100 million.

actually, the original Buffy The Vampire Slayer movie opened in 1992, a year before The X-Files premiered.

I am a fan of both shows, but I agree with Kevin Grey, they have nothing in common except they are both hour-long shows that proved the loyalty and importance of the internet when it comes to shows.

Yes, I know...and of course the movie was a failed comedy that resembles nothing of what the show would become. It was only re-invented as a series after the X-Files became a success. If you actually read what Kevin wrote, he said that there were "definitely some similar elements" and never said they had nothing in common. Any Buffy fan that doesn't acknowledge the X-Files influence is kidding themselves.

I actually like X-Files too, hence "I am a fan of both shows". But while I see a lot of shows on television that are definately X-Files influenced, Supernatural being a prevalent one that really reminds me of the early X-Files episodes, yet I don't think Buffy was at all an "X-Files poseur" like you claim. The mood and structure of the two shows were so completely different that it's like saying Six Feet Under and CSI are similar because both are hour long series.

I have actually heard the Dark Shadows comparison before (which makes more sense, because DS was about vampires), but never The X-Files. The ONLY season that can be compared are the Riley/Initiative "government conspiracy" episodes that were in season 4, those were very X-Filesy and they were also some of the most lambasted episodes in the entire series while Riley generally makes most "least favorite character" lists.

For the record, I plan on checking out Buffy and Angel someday, but it's just not at the top of "to see" list.

Well, I'm certainly not going to get into an argument about a show I don't care about. Although I stand by my comments, I also respect yours as a fan of the show. This thread is supposed to be about Serenity/Firefly.

I think Tom's right when he says that without X-Files we wouldn't have Buffy (yes I know the Buffy movie predates the X-Files). I think the success of X-Files opened up the door for more genre shows on network TV and saw a lot of networks trying to emulate its success (remember Baywatch Nights?). While I don't think Whedon was necessarilly very inspired by X-Files I do think that it played a role to the WB in greenlighting Buffy.

And I think early Buffy has some strong structural similarities to the standard X-Files Monster of the Week. But while X-Files maintained that structure throughout its run, Buffy deviated within a season. One of the more unique structural hallmarks of Buffy is that each season is essentially one self contained arc. There is no overall mystery or story like in X-Files- each season introduces a new antagonist (the big bad) and sees the antagonist dispatched in the season finale.

First season of Angel sees even more X-Files similarities but once again would soon completely deviate into its own creature.