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That's it, I'm walking. gas up 33 cents since Monday, - Page 14

post #391 of 2222
9/1/05 at 9:19am
Quote:
It's not the end of the world. Most of the supply disruptions are temporary. Once the refineries and pipelines become operational again, gas will drop back down to the $2.80 range.

One refinery predicted it would be back online in around 2 weeks to give an idea, IIRC it was in Mississippi though and not LA (which may or may not be underwater).

Andrew
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post #392 of 2222
9/1/05 at 9:21am
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It's not the end of the world.
I know! Prices have gone up and things aren't great right now, but we'll get through it. I assume everyone isn't old enough to remember 1980???? (as was referenced earlier)??

It amazes me how the price of gas goes up to $3 and everyone assume the end of civilization. It's not the end of America, it's just higher prices. Sure, some people are going to find hard times with the gas price, but that doesn't mean the entire country is going to be destroyed.

We'll get through it! Just like we did before and just like we will in the future. It's tough right now, but we'll adjust.

The more we panic, the worse it'll get.
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post #393 of 2222
9/1/05 at 9:25am
Out of curiousity, has the price of gas from say they 80's kept pace with inflation?
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post #394 of 2222
9/1/05 at 9:32am
Price vs. inflation

Here's a link from 1920 (just under $3/gal) thru the spike in 1980 (just under $3) to July 2005 (well below inflation rate). It has since risen to about 1980 standards, I imagine. So we are not at the worst, but we are close.
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post #395 of 2222
9/1/05 at 9:36am
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Car-pooling is going to become very popular soon. Would it have made a difference if everyone would have car-pooled more five years ago? Doubt it. I predict there is going to be riots as transportation grinds to a halt. Many businesses will close. Families will start home-schooling. Local communities will become closer as customers rely on neighbors for assistance. Bicycles will become more popular as families ride together - not only for recreation, but to make trips to the local grocery store. Those that can't bike to work will be forced to find more local employment close to home. The future is very grim.


I agree. I think this is the beginning of the end...
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post #396 of 2222
9/1/05 at 9:36am
Thanks for the link, Jeff. It helps put things in perspective, especially all the "our world is ending!" sentiments (did anyone think the end of thhe world was at hand in 1980?).
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post #397 of 2222
9/1/05 at 9:48am
The next big story will be how this is going to ruin Christmas shopping season. If Santa can't afford to fill his tank, Santa can't afford to fill your stocking.

This is just another "history repeats itself" issue as far as I'm concerned--it's kind of funny watching the younger people in my office bitch and panic about it. People were doing the EXACT SAME THING 25 years ago. And did we learn anything? NAH. Because people are greedy, small-minded, stupid, arrogant, and only think of the short-term. Not that I'm any different.
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post #398 of 2222
9/1/05 at 10:01am
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did anyone think the end of thhe world was at hand in 1980?


Weeeelll, I can't say it was the greatest time in our history. We suffered daily humiliation in Iran on international TV, our only feeble attempt to rescue the hostages failed because of a $4 sand filter killing the whole rescue team, the USSR was in Afghanistan and our only response was to cheat our athletes out of competing with them on an international scale, gas was rationed like it was WWII, our own President accused us of being in a "national malaise", our military was roundly loathed by many due to the Viet Nam hangover and the nuclear spector was hanging over our heads.
The opening of the movie "Miracle" does not overstate the impact the "Miracle on Ice" had for this country. The byline of "The country needed a miracle and what they got was a hockey team" is not an exaggeration. For some of us who had formative years in the late 70s, early 80's, the event in Lake Placid was the first positive portrayal we'd ever seen of the modern day U.S. It was truly an eyeopener the first time I saw the U.S. flag flown for reasons of patriotism and pride instead of protest, outside of the 4th of July. It gave me goosebumps when I went into school the next Monday and you could hear the Pledge of Allegiance coming loud and strong out of classrooms that formerly mumbled it (if they said anything at all), followed by a rousing cheer. It was that eventful.
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post #399 of 2222
9/1/05 at 10:17am
Funny shit.....I went to sams to get gas. I pass 4 stations that have regular for $2.79. I get to Sams. It's $2.72 but a 20 minute wait. I said screw it and went down the street for $2.75. I put in 21 gallons....Oh my I wasted 63 cents....
Why would someone wait 20 minutes to save that much money when they won't clip a coupon out of the paper for anything else?
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post #400 of 2222
9/1/05 at 10:27am
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Why would someone wait 20 minutes to save that much money

The really funny shit is there spending (wasting) more gas/money sitting there for 20 minutes while their car is idling or the constant starting to move their car forward.
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post #401 of 2222
9/1/05 at 11:11am
Well, people used to travel quite some distance to find a station that was a penny cheaper. Never made sense to me that the penny difference made this much impact. And if it did (at least those I know), you think they'd be more cautious with their money elsewhere...
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post #402 of 2222
9/1/05 at 11:37am
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The future is very grim.
Not grim, just different to what we are use to. Barron's had predicted the following in their November (11/15/2004) issue on the effects of higher energy cost:

Quote:
"Such (high) prices would unleash both destruction and creativity throughout industry and finance. As occurred in the 1970s, the design of cars, trucks, ships, planes and trains would change, commercial buildings and homes would be modified; chemical and industrial processing and most machinery would be redesigned to emphasize fuel economy or substitue fuel; tax systems would be thoroughly overhauled, with change incentives and penalties. Urban planning and residential patterns would change. Living standards might slip a bit and they would recover in different shape: cooler rooms in winter and warmer rooms in summer; changing clothes instead of thermostats, taking quicker showers and buying fewer hot tubs, using less lighting, indoors and out, accepting smaller and lighter cars, walking and bicycling more, and using public transportation; these are the obvious changes to come. Europeans, who long ago forced themselves to accept this lifestyle by imposing high energy taxes, might at last receive economic return on their investment, while the U.S. struggles to change."
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post #403 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:07pm
I removed the offending political mumbo-jumbo. Apologies. Even though you know I'm right

My personal prediction is that we will never truly see the underside of $3 a gallon again. Maybe it'll dip down for a month or two early next year, but it's going past $3 and not looking back IMO.

Why? Because unlike earlier spikes in price, this one isn't due to a shortage of supply, it is mostly due to increased global demand. China and India are growing like mad, they need oil to do so. So unless you can explain to me how we are going to convince China to stop growing its economy, I can't explain to you how the price of oil will ever go back down.

The Katrina disruption spiked the prices faster than would have happened, but I'd wager that about the time those refineries and oil rigs come back on line, global oil demand will have grown enough do that gas sits still or only dips back to the low $3's.

By 2010, I wouldn't doubt that $4.50 a gallon wouldn't be the standard price. Start trying to economize your energy lifestyle now, these problems are here to stay. It's not the end of the world, but it might be the end of the cheap energy era for the USA.
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post #404 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:10pm
My personal prediction is that we'll see oil under $40 a barrel within 1-2 years. The current market is a bubble.
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post #405 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:13pm
Quote:
Car-pooling is going to become very popular soon. Would it have made a difference if everyone would have car-pooled more five years ago? Doubt it. I predict there is going to be riots as transportation grinds to a halt. Many businesses will close. Families will start home-schooling. Local communities will become closer as customers rely on neighbors for assistance. Bicycles will become more popular as families ride together - not only for recreation, but to make trips to the local grocery store. Those that can't bike to work will be forced to find more local employment close to home. The future is very grim.


This is grim? I've car-pooled to work with my wife for the last 15 years and it's been great. Having a single vehicle works for me. I don't see any major drawback in home schooling either. Quite a few families do that in my area. I drive under three miles to work and there's a supermarket between home and work....the glass is half full amigo. It'd take $100 a gallon gas for me to bike to work...I'd rather walk

Mort (who only remembers grim as a fairy tale)
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post #406 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:23pm
I'll agree that we may never see sub $2 gas again but I don't think over $3 is here to stay. Over $3 will start causing lifestyle changes that will put a damper on demand causing prices to fall back.

However, I think prices will stay over $2 even if demand drops because the oil companies found out that while $2+ gas might make people bitch, it doesn't affect their consumption.
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post #407 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:25pm
Quote:
By 2010, I wouldn't doubt that $4.50 a gallon wouldn't be the standard price.


Unfortunately, $4.50 by 2010 seems way too optimistic. I heard a prediction on NPR the other day that $5.00 will be the norm by next summer (For what it's worth). Although I concur with you that we may never see gas dip significantly below $3.00 again. The benchmark has been hit and the bar has been raised and that's it. It's pretty much the same with everything, prices for whatever go up and no matter what economic factors ease up eventually, they don't go back down. This is why I am fearful that the economic pains that we are feeling may very well go on for a lot longer than we fear. Unless salaries and wages are increased in comparison to the increased costs for everything it's that many more people whos standard of living will be in a perpertual state of decline. That's not a good thing.
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post #408 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:34pm
Quote:
The benchmark has been hit and the bar has been raised and that's it. It's pretty much the same with everything, prices for whatever go up and no matter what economic factors ease up eventually, they don't go back down. This is why I am fearful that the economic pains that we are feeling may very well go on for a lot longer than we fear. Unless salaries and wages are increased in comparison to the increased costs for everything it's that many more people whos standard of living will be in a perpertual state of decline. That's not a good thing.



See the link above for the cost of gasoline against inflation, it goes up and (mostly) down all the time. See this link for an explanation of gas prices vs. inflation vs. GDP, it addresses the rest of your statements quite well.

Gas vs. Inflation vs. GDP

Specifically:
Quote:
A better measure of the affordability of gasoline over time is not its inflation-adjusted price alone, but its inflation-adjusted price in comparison with our economic resources (in this case, inflation-adjusted GDP per capita). Even though the real price of gasoline was lower in 1972 ($1.28) than today ($1.73), per capita GDP is now $39,919 whereas it was only $20,667 (measured in 2003 dollars) in 1972. Real incomes have almost doubled since 1972, but real gasoline price have risen only 35%. Real gasoline prices were slightly lower in 1955 than today ($1.66 versus $1.73). But real per-capita GDP is almost $40,000 today and was only $14,094 in 1955. Real gasoline prices at the height of the oil shock in 1981 were higher than today ($2.36 versus $1.73), while real GDP per capita was lower ($24,369 versus almost $40,000) than today.

Granted these numbers predate the current price spike, but the logic you use to state "Unless salaries and wages are increased in comparison to the increased costs for everything it's that many more people whos standard of living will be in a perpertual state of decline" just does not translate to actual numbers.
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post #409 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:39pm
The gas station across the street from my office went from $3.05 to $3.77 overnight.
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post #410 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:39pm
"it doesn't affect their consumption."

What if youre getting by from week to week,paycheck to paycheck.

It can. Ive had plenty of weeks in the past when as little as $15 made a difference on whether I eat or not for a few days.
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post #411 of 2222
9/1/05 at 12:54pm
Quote:
Granted these numbers predate the current price spike, but the logic you use to state "Unless salaries and wages are increased in comparison to the increased costs for everything it's that many more people whos standard of living will be in a perpertual state of decline" just does not translate to actual numbers.


Well, that's a fine analysis, but, all I know is that the more I have to pay for gas, and the ineviatable price increases of everything else as a result will certainly cut into the amount of money I can save and the amount of disposable income I have, since I won't get another pay increase until next year. Now if you have many millions of Americans in the same situation, it's hard to see how there won't be an adverse effect. However, I am not an expert, I may be wrong, but things are certainly not looking too good as far as I can see.

Things might not look so grim if we just knew when these surges will level off, but it does not show any signs of stopping for the forseeable futute.
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post #412 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:01pm
Quote:
Things might not look so grim if we just knew when these surges will level off, but it does not show any signs of stopping for the forseeable futute.

This latest surge which started in the middle of last week is almost entirely related to Katrina, first the worry about supply issues started driving prices higher, and now that we are living those fears the price is going even higher.

In a month or two at worst the prices will start coming down quite a bit as the supply side losses are brought back online. And will likely come down sooner.

Past that just about everybody agrees that we're in an "oil bubble" right now, with predictions of $20-30 of a barrel of crude being all speculation right now. If that bubbles bursts then prices will fall quite quickly.

Andrew
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post #413 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:04pm
Quote:
and the ineviatable price increases of everything else as a result will certainly cut into the amount of money I can save and the amount of disposable income I have, since I won't get another pay increase until next year.


That's the point of the analysis. The price of goods including gasoline (adjusted for inflation vs. the current average salary, ie. GDP per capita adjusted for inflation) are lower today than at other times of both high gas prices and low gas prices. You may think you have less disposable income than at other times, but really, at times of just as great (or worse) gas prices people had much less of their paychecks to devote to goods, including gas and therefore had much less disposable income. Now if you want to compare it to last year, yes the average disposable income is down. But this is hardly a fixed trend (quite the opposite) so predictions that the "standard of living will be in a perpertual state of decline." are spurious at best. That's all I was saying. Unfortunately "gas prices aren't all that bad compared to other years" doesn't sell as many headlines as "standard of living will be in a perpertual state of decline".
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post #414 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:11pm
Quote:
Unfortunately, $4.50 by 2010 seems way too optimistic. I heard a prediction on NPR the other day that $5.00 will be the norm by next summer (For what it's worth). Although I concur with you that we may never see gas dip significantly below $3.00 again. The benchmark has been hit and the bar has been raised and that's it. It's pretty much the same with everything, prices for whatever go up and no matter what economic factors ease up eventually, they don't go back down. This is why I am fearful that the economic pains that we are feeling may very well go on for a lot longer than we fear. Unless salaries and wages are increased in comparison to the increased costs for everything it's that many more people whos standard of living will be in a perpertual state of decline. That's not a good thing.



Will, there is a silver lining here for the consumer. Namely it's that as China/India suck up the oil on one end, they spit out increasingly cheap goods and services out the other. For example, practically all DVD players are made there now and the price has deteriorated significantly compared to electronics in the past. This trend will continue and expand as China gets into new big ticket markets like making washing machines, cars, boats, ???

We can laugh about that now and say no way, but remember that no one knew who Timex was 30 years ago and the Swiss shrugged off the Japanese as non-players. When China can make a quality Prius knockoff for $12K who here wouldn't be severely tempted the next time they were looking at new cars?

China is the next global power, whether we like it or not. USA isn't to slip into the toilet neccessarily, but we'll be like the British after they lost their empire in WWII. A player, but not THE player anymore.

All I'm saying here is if you are making plans (or buying cars right now), better to assume a $3+ gallon of gas in your budget than a sub $2 price. There might be a dips here or there, but as long as China is competing for global oil reserves the price has no where to go but up long term. As a nation they are thristy and look to only get more thirsty as they grow.
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post #415 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:12pm
Also keep in mind we'll need to see a much larger swing in the price of gas in order for the cost of goods to go up by an appreciable amount. When you can haul 13k gallons of milk around in a tanker truck, an extra $200 to transport it is essentially an insignificant amount of money.
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post #416 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:20pm
Well, it looks like CT is doing something about it:
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Congressman John Larson says he'll introduce legislation next week to place a tax on oil companies that make excess profits.
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post #417 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:40pm
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Congressman John Larson says he'll introduce legislation next week to place a tax on oil companies that make excess profits.


Interesting, however I must wonder if it will ever work and my gut feeling is that even if it passed it will be hard to implement. For one, what would be defined as excess profits? And second, it might be better financially for the oil companies to just pay the tax rather than lower their profit margins anyway. And if that is the case, the tax revenue made by the oil companies should be offset by lowering taxes at the pump. Also, what if the oil companies just decide to raise prices to compensate for the taxes they would have to pay? Not trying to sound pessimistic, but the legislation seems a bit open ended.
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post #418 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:50pm
Since travel, including road trips and motorhomes, now cost 3x what it did last month, we can expect a big boost in Home Theater, Stereo, and other "stay at home" leisure activites.
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post #419 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:52pm
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Congressman John Larson says he'll introduce legislation next week to place a tax on oil companies that make excess profits.
What's "excess profits"?
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post #420 of 2222
9/1/05 at 1:58pm
I’m seeing something interesting here. There have been a number of posts talking about how us “indulgent” Americans use too much gasoline, etc. Now that prices are surging to the point where there’s so much talk about cutting back consumption, people are complaining about THAT. So which is it—do you want cheap, plentiful gas so you can “indulge”, or do you want market forces to compel you to cut back consumption?
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