David Poland's 31 Weeks to Oscar Column

nice to see to contenders listed and organised - I'm sure he's got all of them save 1 or 2... but gosh, after a while I tried not to read what Poland had to say on the right side of the tables. I found it very unfunny and annoying - like his columns in general.

Awfully early...so, you can bet one or two of the named films will almost certainly thud and/or disappoint. And, probably one or two films NOT on the list will crop up and become contenders.

Is RENT coming out this fall? Won't that play big for awards?

It is too early at this point to predict anything. Last year, his 30 Weeks To Oscar, 23 Weeks To Oscar and 20 Weeks To Oscar articles didn't even mention Million Dollar Baby as a contender for any Oscar slot.

~Edwin

He mentioned it on his pages for Best Picture, Director (but commented, "525,600 reasons it ain't happenin'"), and Actresses (Rosario Dawson for lead and Idina Menzel for supporting)

Poland left off one high profile title, "The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe" which imo is one of the frontrunners for a nomination right now. And he also has stated his intense dislike for the utterly brilliant Rent trailer, which has generated enormous spontaneous love from every female I've shown it to. When that trailer starts playing on this fall's American Idol, well... watching the BO on this one will at the very least be interesting. On the other hand, you can guarentee that Rent probably won't get much of a fair chance because the press really loaths Chris Columbus, despite audiences loving many of his films--but it's not quite Michael Bay level hatred, but he would have an extraordinary fight to make a nomination because every comment about his contention would be as snide, dismissive and full of back handed insu..compliments (right... ) they can pack into a sentance.

On the other hand, if Walk the Line will suffer from a 'we nominated Ray' syndrome preventing it (presuming it's excellent, I found the trailer for Rumor has it much more compelling), then it's possible that Rent will suffer from a 'Chicago won' syndrome as well, I think both are pretty specious, and it'll come down as always to films that have a reasonably broad appeal and are excellent productions, strong box office performance also helps.

Here's another thing that he left off. Rumor Has it. A film about the 'real' story behind a movie the majority generation of the academy worships, The Graduate. It's just Hollywood winking enough to really work for the academy. What's more, Rob Reiner is in the same position that Ron Howard and A Beautiful Mind was in 2001. Never nominated, had serious films in contention before and has a past of turning out mostly excellent films (saving the last two he did) that are now legendary (Spinal Tap, When Harry Met Sally, Princess Bride). If the film is good, he could pick up a directing nomination if they push for it. Also I would think from the trailer that Shirley Maclaine could very well be in contention for supporting actress.

I think what will hurt Munich the most, is people talking about a guarenteed Spielberg lock ala Eastwood and comparing it to 1993 double feature. Also if Spielberg cheaps out on delivering a real ending, as he did with War of the Worlds it's doubtful that he'll get a free pass to another oscar nom.

I also think that the Producers has more of a fight than Poland is letting on, coasting in on reputation alone isn't going to manage it. It'll have to be as good or better than the original...

My opinions are:
Frontrunners (with trailers):
Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe
New World
Rent
Rumor has it...

Likely frontrunners (no trailer yet):
Jarhead
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Producers

and the wild card goes to King Kong, which could pick up a Raiders of the Lost Ark type of nomination.

Adam

Ever since season 2, AI has started in January. Are you sure it's starting in the fall?

I think the same holds true for Lion, Witch, and Wardrobe. It *will* draw comparisons to Lord of the Rings and with so much Academy love heaped towards LOTR in recent memory, the Academy may be hesistant to jump for another fantasy film.

It is possible that Poland is hesitant to put Rent down because he had Phantom of the Opera in a lot of major categories in his predictions last year that never materialized. Poland has some great analysis but he always has some choices that are embarrassingly off-target. I do love his diss of Chris Columbus' Director odds for Rent: "525,600 reasons it ain't happenin'"