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| Two years? Why not five? Why not forty? (How long were the Cylons gone before the mini?) Seems pretty arbitrary. |
Two years is roughly the time since the last Cylon attack, when you include the year leap forward.
And even with the decades upon decades since the truce with the Cylons the first time around, Baltar was needed to disable colonial defenses before the Cylons could mount an effective attack. The colonials were better prepared for a Cylon return after forty years (taking your largest arbitrary number) than the fleet was after two? This to me suggests that Baltar played a role in paring down Adama's military.
Considering how obviously intimidated Baltar has always been by Adama, it makes sense that he'd want to take Adama out by the knees. Hopefully we'll find out for sure when
Occupation: New Caprica premieres this October.

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| Wouldn't they be concerned that the Cylons in their midst would find a way to contact the Cylon fleet? |
Baltar made it clear that he wasn't all that concerned about anything security related.
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| I was waiting for her to bring up the point, "But we know that there are cylons among us. We can't take the chance that they would eventually be able to contact the cylon fleet and give away our location." |
I think she did, if off-camera. The general idea seemed to be that such obvious practicalities gained little traction against the wild dreams of sky overhead.
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| The year leaves too many questions, and sees too many changes to characters that we got to know over the course of two years. |
You've gotten to the heart of my disagreement with this decision. It's shocking and dramatic, but with more time having passed in the jump forward than the time covered in the entire length of the series, the characters are going to be less like the ones from before the jump than they are similar. We'll be spending the first few episodes getting to know these new iterations of our characters rather than picking up against with characters that we have followed on their journey. It places us back on the outside of these characters' lives.
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| Sure - they've all gotten tired of running and fighting - but when did Baltar suddenly get his gift of persuasion? He was never much liked by anyone (in fact, he's been barely tolerated) - Suddenly the colonists forget about their Gods and the prophecy of Earth and follow Baltar and his harem to a life of poverty and hardship... |
What you forget is that only a minority of the fleet are wrapped up in Roslin's religious quest. The rest were following along basically because nobody had any better ideas. Roslin probably got the vote of the religious fundamentalists. But unlike many places in today's world, it wasn't enough to tip the balance in her favor. The rest of the people were fed up with close quarters and constant fleeing. They didn't elect Baltar
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| With Adama's hatred and distrust of the Cylons, he wouldn't have just said "You have no proof...", he would have found proof. |
Adama isn't a god. Since private quarters in Cloud Nine presumably weren't monitored, there's probably no evidence to find. And he's too noble to fabricate evidence; that'd make him no better than the people who doctored the election vote.
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| The people that want to settle are the people who are in the fleet and don't know about the way to Earth. |
Or more importantly, weren't in the cave and didn't SEE the way to earth. For them, Earth is still abstract and not so tangible.