The Roulette Wheel (probability) question - Page 3

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4069629.stm

And, more detailed:

http://www.gamblinggates.com/News/07...Scam24041.html


I guess it refers to the strategy from the original poster.

While the 14 rolls weren't the same color, playing black for 14 rolls in a row (and each time doubling the bet) would have lost the better a lot of money....

Sorry George. It wasn't 14 of the color in a row, it was 14 rolls in a row without a red turning up. The colors on the left side of the board are black, and the colors on the right side are red. And yes, it shoots down the original posters theory.

If you look at my last pic, you'll see the last 14 numbers were:
35, 13, 11, 8, 4, 10, 0, 11, 10, 8, 28, 35, 33, 00. Then look at this pic, and you'll notice that none of them are red:

Thanks for the clarification.

Mark, thanks for the links—I read the BBC news article, but there was not sufficient information to understand how it all worked. I am having some real trouble getting that article from the gamblinggates site. The news page just won’t load.

The site does look as though it is intended to encourage gambling.

Sorry about that. I'm in no way familiar with that site - I just searched for the news story with google and it came up...

From the article:

Sensational story - too sensational:
(1) That's not the way a program predicting the course of a ball would work.
(2) There are exactly 37 (or 38) possible outcomes, not thousands.

May look like the way to do it. But if you really have reduced the chance to 6:1, you only need to place a bet in one of the numbers to win enough already. The writer doesn't really understand roulette-statistics.

Real story, or made up?


Cees

If this is a hoax it's an elaborate one, as the original arrest six months earlier was also reported:

http://www.nu.nl/news.jsp?n=296181&c=50
(03/22/04 - Sorry, Dutch only)

http://www.sundayherald.com/40874
(03/28/04 - with an alternate "evil eyes" theory)

If anyone cares, next Friday night's episode of Monk will feature Monk in Las Vegas, should be fun to see how he does in Vegas.

Mark,

I'm not sure about that article. It could be nothing but a translation of the original one, in which case it's not "additional information". I remember seeing that one, but I never saw a follow-up there, as should be expected from the content.

The subject is always interesting, though!


Cees

Not that I would suspect the august BBC Mark, but the article itself did not have enough information to be able to determine if this could really work. And the information provided made me suspicious that it really could.

Basically there is a lot more to consider than just the initial speed of the ball. The speed of the wheel much also be considered, as well as the exact position of the ball when it enters the wheel (among other things)

It is difficult to believe that the camera on a cell phone would have the resolution necessary to accurately take these measurements—besides which the digital scan of cell phones would almost for sure not be quick enough to determine speed.

Notice so far that we have not considered things like the effects of apparent height of the ball’s entry point (that is, how high or low it begins its journey in relation to the slots.

Basically there is no credible information as to how this works to be able to determine if it really could work. My very strong guess is, this is because it did not occur.

I do believe that some people were arrested. But given the information, there is no way to tell if they were arrested for the right reasons, or if their story was what actually happened.

A trial would most certaintly have brought out expert witnesses who would have challenged/verifired the scheme’s ability to actually work.

And if someone could actually do this with a cell phone and PC, you can bet that the ‘3 turn time allotted to place your bets’ would be altered as fast as the additional decks (and reshuffling) happened in blackjack when counting became verifiable.

They didn't use a camera phone, they used another device;

A laser scanner linked to a computer was allegedly used to gauge numbers likely to come up on the roulette wheel.


So they were just incredibly lucky to win more than a million pounds?

Take a look at - http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...96728?v=glance

One part of the book details the physics of the roulette wheel and how a group of geeky students beat the wheel, way back in the 70's.

Also check out - http://c2000.cc.gatech.edu/classes/c...ings/thorp.pdf which details some other examples.

This has been covered on Slashdot a couple of times;
http://games.slashdot.org/article.pl...8&tid=1&tid=10

http://slashdot.org/articles/04/03/2....shtml?tid=126

Another article on the Serb/Hungarians - http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn4815

I'm only using the available information, scant though it is. I'll check out your links as soon as I have a bit of time--hopefully they will provide more hard information that the articles have so far.

There is a difference between a camera and a laser measuring device

None of the links I found (there are thousands of them on google) contained any information about what kind of technology was used for this serb/hungarian group, other than the above information. So I have no idea as to how "real" this story is, it could be legit or maybe there was more going on.

The links do talk about other devices used to sway roulette odds back into the players favor, most of them have been outlawed (at least in Vegas), but the point is that people have been coming up with devices for 30+ years now that can and do beat the "impossible" roulette wheel.

Andrew

Another cool link;

http://nowscape.com/blk/roul/index.html

Actually, you are allowed to do that...after the ball has spun around about a dozen times, the dealer will wave his/her hand across the table, signifying no more bets.

As for craps, the Pass/Do Not Pass bets differ by what happens when you roll a 12 on the come-out. On the Pass line, you lose. On the Do Not Pass line, you push. Thus, the house retains its edge on either side.