One factor that favors HD-DVD over Blu-Ray is that it costs less to manufacture. I remember reading an article
here where a demonstration was shown in Japan. A DVD manufacturer made a batch of HD-DVD's. They then stopped the batch, made a couple quick changes, and then started making a batch of standard DVD's. They were showing how economical the process is and how easy it is to make both types of DVD's using the same equipment.
I see that economical savings to be a big advantage to HD-DVD. Blu-Ray definitely has the advantage of space. I don't know if 200Gb discs will be necessary though. It would be great for extras, but look at how much the studios complain it costs them to include a lot of extras.
That space would definitely come in handy for current DVD releases that come out on Blu-Ray as the extras are already finished. I just wonder how much people would hate to have the same extras from current DVD's ported over to Blu-Ray. Personally, I wouldn't care on a lot of releases if they just ported over the same extras as long as they looked and sounded better and not just shoveled over. I wouldn't want it to be like some films where the LD transfer was just ported over to DVD without any remastering.
It's a tough call still, but it is all going to come down to the studios as so many have already said. The studios are definitely going to go with the lowest bidder that can make them the most money unless the lowest bidder has lousy encryption.
Patrick