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Former House Science Committee chairman believes China is headed to the Moon. - Page 2

post #31 of 41
6/3/03 at 2:04pm
Quote:
How many chinese will starve to get a Peoples Army officer where we were 30+ years ago?

"Life is cheap, flesh plentiful" - ancient Chinese saying.

Space probes are cool. However, they are a victim of their own success...people see how cheaply successful robotic missions can be made, and then demand that they be even cheaper!
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post #32 of 41
6/4/03 at 11:30pm
Didn't Arthur C. Clark say many, many years ago that the Chinese would be up next? My memory isn't what it used to be.

I am with those that think this is a good thing. It will be the kick in the rump the U.S. needs to get things rolling again.
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post #33 of 41
6/5/03 at 3:31pm
Space probes are cool. However, they are a victim of their own success...people see how cheaply successful robotic missions can be made, and then demand that they be even cheaper!

Not only are space probes cheap, but they have been very successful.

With the long lead times necessary to put together manned space stations, trips back to the moon, trips to Mars, the space probes will continue to push back the efficacy of manned missions.

In 25 years a space probe will be on the verge of virtual intelligence and make manned missions even less usefull. In 50 years our space probes will totally emulate human action and make manned fligh an anachranism.
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post #34 of 41
6/7/03 at 9:31am
Quote:
Space probes are cool


when I saw this, I thought about the other kind of probing that reportedly goes on in space.

Anyways, kinda off topic, but, I once heard NASA buys tons of those old 8086 based computers that weigh like 90 pounds each to keed the shuttles going, since thats the technology they were built on. I hear they buy like everyone sold on Ebay.

Any truth to that?
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post #35 of 41
6/7/03 at 2:45pm
In 25 years a space probe will be on the verge of virtual intelligence and make manned missions even less usefull. In 50 years our space probes will totally emulate human action and make manned fligh an anachranism.


True, a computer will likely have the storage and processing power of a human brain in that time, and androids will probably be common on space missions. However, I really doubt that a computer will be able to operate outside its programming. So, if anything really funky happens out there, we'll need "spaceboots on the ground" to make command decisions.

That presumes that the speed of light is physically impossible to surpass, though. If we can operate machinery in real time, regardless of distance (such as in Ender's Game), a human on earth could take control of androids in the aforementioned funky situation.

However, even if that were possible, I think we'd use the capability sparingly since I believe we have a manifest destiny to colonize. That'd be pretty hard to do unless you have human beings moving through the cosmos to do the colonization.
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post #36 of 41
6/7/03 at 2:52pm
I once heard NASA buys tons of those old 8086 based computers that weigh like 90 pounds each to keed the shuttles going, since thats the technology they were built on. I hear they buy like everyone sold on Ebay.

Any truth to that?


yep
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post #37 of 41
6/7/03 at 6:27pm
Anyways, kinda off topic, but, I once heard NASA buys tons of those old 8086 based computers that weigh like 90 pounds each to keed the shuttles going, since thats the technology they were built on. I hear they buy like everyone sold on Ebay.

I wonder if NSA ever sold them their old computers, or if they just did the computer hardware version of the paper shredder.
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post #38 of 41
6/7/03 at 10:48pm
Although, China isn't really communist anymore.


Oh really? Since when?

This apathy/antipathy continues to this day, evidenced by the fact a successor to the STS has never been funded, designed, and built; evidenced by the fact that the X-33/X-34 program has been cancelled despite billions having been spent on it; evidenced by the fact that the Space Launch Initiative has pretty much been shelved (a successor program to the ill-fated X-33/X-34 VentureStar, it was to have culminated in a new-generation manned transport to replace the STS)


Yeah, but dammit, at least we've got microwave ovens. Future generations will marvel at our visionary technological feat of being able to pop a bag of corn in under three minutes.

How many chinese will starve to get a Peoples Army officer where we were 30+ years ago?


This question should be...."how many Chinese will starve to get a Peoples Army officer halfway to the moon before he's no longer a good party member because he can't hold his breath anymore?"

Compare China's 9 percent of the launch market with Canada's ZERO percent.


We may not be able to launch 'em, but at least our satellites work. The Chinese are probably still reverse engineering the Sputnik.
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post #39 of 41
6/7/03 at 11:33pm
Edwin, I was referring to the fact that China is not following strict communist doctrine (you know...a la Karl Marx?).

I mean, just look at Shanghai, and the other "economic zones" that are as far away from the communist ideal as you can get. And really, who cares anyways...space missions require science, and science, strictly speaking, is a method and can pretty much work independently of the government in place. You either make it to the moon, or you don't!

It's a very diverse country. Around a dozen ethnic groups live there, and there are quite a few languages kicking around, not just Cantonese and Mandarin. The differences in dialects are even more extreme than Texas drawls, Brooklynese, and rapper speak in the United States!

Remember, the United States was far behind the Soviets in the early years of the space age...
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post #40 of 41
6/7/03 at 11:56pm
Edwin, I was referring to the fact that China is not following strict communist doctrine (you know...a la Karl Marx?).

I mean, just look at Shanghai, and the other "economic zones" that are as far away from the communist ideal as you can get.


It is too sensitive to get into. Suffice it to say, I believe that these "free" economic zones fit very well into a certain Communist Doctrine.

And really, who cares anyways...space missions require science, and science, strictly speaking, is a method and can pretty much work independently of the government in place.


To some extent, I disagree. Scientific advance requires intellectual freedom and discourse. If scientific method was completely independent of the government in place then Russian and Chinese scientific development should be about on par with Western development. Russian and Chinese scientific development clearly is nowhere near that in the West. I attribute that to political conditions.
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post #41 of 41
6/8/03 at 3:05pm
Oh, that wasn't what I meant...if a government wants to achieve a certain technical goal, they cannot achieve it by strangling the science behind it. So yes, we agree...if they want to fail, they will fail.

Obviously, if a government doesn't care about improving their crop yield, and also believes a certain result is "against the ideal", then that aspect of science will fail or rapidly fall behind.

Soviet Lysenkoism (a rejection of Mendellian genetics) is a great example of this...it seemed that the Soviets back in the 1920's decided that genetics was against the ideology (for reasons that are clear if you think about it...or just do a google search). The soviets could never pull off a long-term mission to Mars because of this deficit.

Although their mechanical engineering is the best in the world, the Soviets would have a tough time growing desired crops without genetics!

I would guess that China's deficits are in the fields of neuroscience and evolutionary biology. I have no idea if they subscribe to anything like Lysenkoism. I doubt this would stop them from making it to the Moon though. Colonizing it would be another matter entirely...
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