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"From Justin to Kelly" six week window moved back six weeks

post #1 of 45
5/28/03 at 2:09pm
Thread Starter 
http://www.msnbc.com/news/918922.asp
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post #2 of 45
5/28/03 at 2:30pm
Garenteed to be the stupidest movie ever made, but not the stupidest movie never made. That honour would have to go to the thank godd it never happened Grease 3 starring n'stink.
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post #3 of 45
5/28/03 at 2:47pm
Why is this even being released in theaters? Ok so they hope it'll be a big hit but it seems more like a Fox TV movie to me.


Justin: We are SO yesterday!
Kelly: Me too!
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post #4 of 45
5/28/03 at 3:14pm
Unfortunatley Kelley's gone double platinum with her bland,safe, innoffensive music. I'm sure Justin is next up, and this time next year we'll be innundated with Clay "I'm not gay" Aiken and Roooooooooooben.

It's a movie they tossed together, the fact that they're whole musical soundtrack is more soft safe hits just emphasises how bad this weill be.

And it'll still make 100 million, mark my words.
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post #5 of 45
5/28/03 at 3:23pm
Don't you mean Clay "Barry Manilow" Aiken?
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post #6 of 45
5/28/03 at 3:38pm
Quote:
And it'll still make 100 million, mark my words.


Noted

I think it'll make 10-25 million tops. If it makes 100 million I'm moving to Iceland.
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post #7 of 45
5/28/03 at 6:15pm
Gary->dee,
The won't let you into Iceland.
You'll have too move to Greenland!
It can't be worse than Battlefield Earth.
But, it wont be able to hold a candle to Beach Blanket Bingo!
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post #8 of 45
5/28/03 at 7:09pm
Originally reported by the Wall Street Journal but deciphered on the internet courtesy of CHUD.com , here's an interesting story:

If it seems like movies are hitting home video insanely soon after their theatrical run, it's probably because it's true. But even still, the window between the theatrical release of From Justin to Kelly (the American Idol movie) to the DVD release seems to be barely there - six weeks!

This has theater owners pissed off. They fear that people won't bother coming out to see the film in theaters if they can wait a month and a half to see it at home.


Six weeks?? Why even bother with a theatrical release at all? Oh yeah. Money.

(From Justin to Kelly hits theaters on June 13th.)
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post #9 of 45
5/28/03 at 7:28pm
Quote:
I think it'll make 10-25 million tops


You underestimate teeny boppers with big allowances and nothing else to do in the summer. I say it makes at least 100 million probably closer to 150.



Chris
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post #10 of 45
5/28/03 at 7:44pm
I think this will make about 5 million dollars more than real cancun ! anyway i will see it simply for the cheeseball factor ! I think this will be the most bashed film of the year, it might even win worst picture at the razzie awards ! I will definitely go opening week, because the following week im going to see hulk , and by then justin to kelly might be gone from theatres. This movie will be like grease 2 for this generation, instead of grease 1 !
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post #11 of 45
5/28/03 at 8:02pm
Well, I don't think it has a shot at $100M since its audience is quite narrow, namely little girls from about ages 10 to 14.

I'd expect it to top out around $40M max, more likely around $25M.

But it probably only cost around $10M to make, so unless it plays to totally empty theaters it should be profitable.
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post #12 of 45
5/29/03 at 6:37am
Quote:
Well, I don't think it has a shot at $100M since its audience is quite narrow, namely little girls from about ages 10 to 14.


Nope, American Idol is the #1 show among 10-18ers, AND there's a HUGE 30-something female audience for it. Reportedly like 80% of the people at the AI live shows are those 30-somethings. Don't forget, 25 percent of the households in the US voted on the AI final this year (don't forget, only 20% of eligable voters had bothered to vote in the primary the same day)
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post #13 of 45
5/29/03 at 6:53am
Well, I think there's a slight difference between watching a TV show that's piped into every home in the country and actively going to the theater and paying $8 for a ticket to see these same people.

Didn't work for The Real Cancun, don't think it'll work for this either.

But, we'll see when it's released.
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post #14 of 45
5/29/03 at 7:45am
Jeff,
YOur point is a good one, but those numbers are very deceiving. They are taking overall votes and not tracking multiple votes from the same house.

I understand the show is huge, but I am betting this movie is going to tank. THe clips they showed during the show looked awful.
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post #15 of 45
5/29/03 at 7:47am
Quote:
Didn't work for The Real Cancun

Not really a good comparison because,
1. The Real Cancun was rated R
2. Not as many parents are going to take their teenys to see a movie glorifying getting drunk, and one night stands.

The ability of parents to drop the teenys off at the theater, and let them see it unsupervised is going to play a big factor.


Chris
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post #16 of 45
5/29/03 at 8:23am
I think these predictions of $100 million plus for this flick are going to be WAY off base. I'm in the $25-$30 million camp. Yes, there's a big audience of American Idol fans, but pop musical acts simply don't translate to hit movies most of the time. Britney's Crossroads only made $37 million The sheer obvious cheesiness of Justin will keep a lot of folks home. I'll be shocked if this one doesn't tank at the BO...
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post #17 of 45
5/29/03 at 8:48am
If Fox expected this movie to make $100+ million, it wouldn't have scheduled the original video date (now pushed back to an undisclosed date) for just six weeks after the movie's opening.

The Britney Spears/Cross Roads example is a good one.

Also, look how hot Hilary Duff is now--with a top-rated TV show (for her age group of fans), massive Disney promotion (especially on Radio Disney with the target audience) and one of the top-selling CDs in the country. Yet The Lizzie McGuire Movie has made only about $37 million after four weeks and will probably top out around $50-$55 million based on its current trajectory. (For the record, that's very successful for such a fairly low-budget movie.)

From Justin to Kelly will be lucky to hit $50 million. Half that seems much more likely--and it would still be considered wildly successful.
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post #18 of 45
5/29/03 at 9:31am

{BIG SHUDDER}

That's the only reaction I can manage right now. "Reality TV" is one reason I tend to avoid television altogether these days and stick with movies on DVD. Yuck!
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post #19 of 45
5/29/03 at 1:20pm
Mark, try "The Amazing Race" on tonight. It's reality TV for those of us who hate it. Which is why it's on the bubble of cancellation *sigh*
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post #20 of 45
5/29/03 at 5:13pm
Kelly and Justin are, well, so last year. I'm surprised FOX is even bothering to move this one into theatres. A double platinum album does not of itself translate into a successful film career. Just ask Madonna. Unless there is no other teen-centric film out there, expect small grosses for this one (hence its 6 week window).
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post #21 of 45
6/18/03 at 11:40am
To follow up on my previous comments, Fox has decided not to have any pre-release screenings of the movie--not for critics, not for preview audiences; not even a Thursday night promotional screening, which even bad movies get (to keep reviewers from being able to run something on Friday, the day of release). If anyone wanted a clear sign that this movie has low expectations, this is it.

Jeff, do you still think it will make $100 million?


The DVD release date reportedly will be in September.
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post #22 of 45
6/18/03 at 12:47pm
I'd put the over/under for US gross at $19 million.
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post #23 of 45
6/18/03 at 12:53pm
Perhaps JohnRice will review this, since he missed out on Kangaroo Jack.
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post #24 of 45
6/18/03 at 2:25pm
Quote:
To follow up on my previous comments, Fox has decided not to have any pre-release screenings of the movie--not for critics, not for preview audiences; not even a Thursday night promotional screening, which even bad movies get (to keep reviewers from being able to run something on Friday, the day of release). If anyone wanted a clear sign that this movie has low expectations, this is it.


Yep that says it all. Even really really bad movies get promotional screenings here. I think Fox knows they have a turkey on their hands and are trying to make what they can before the video market.

I didn't want to see it to begin with but I probably would have gone had their been an early screening here.

Mark
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post #25 of 45
6/22/03 at 12:11pm
From this weekend's box-office report:

Quote:
"From Justin to Kelly," a romance starring "American Idol" winner Kelly Clarkson and runner-up Justin Guarini, opened at No. 11 with only $2.9 million.

A movie typically (but not always) earns three times its opening-weekend gross.

I think that DVD release date might have gotten pushed back up...
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post #26 of 45
6/22/03 at 12:26pm
As I said in the Movies forum:

THANK YOU AMERICA!
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post #27 of 45
6/22/03 at 3:00pm
After people went to the box office enough to make Kangaroo Jack number one earlier this year, it brings tears of joy to my eyes to see From Justin to Kelly crash and burn.
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post #28 of 45
6/22/03 at 9:38pm
Quote:
I say it makes at least 100 million probably closer to 150.


Quote:
And it'll still make 100 million, mark my words.


$2.8 million down - only $97.2 million to go!

Jeff and Chris - any plans to revise your estimates?
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post #29 of 45
6/22/03 at 10:14pm
I should have said that "it's either going to make 5 or 100 million"

For once, I actually underestimated the stupidity of the American public, and am pleased at its non-success

Some idiots are still buying those CDs though, their 15 minutes should have been up a long time ago
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post #30 of 45
6/22/03 at 10:46pm
My understanding was the CDs didn't sell very well.
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Home Theater Forum › Home Theater Forum › Blu-ray, DVD, Streaming Video and Digital Downloads › DVD › "From Justin to Kelly" six week window moved back six weeks