Between-Release Nervousness

Jaime_Weinman · 02-06-2004, 04:08 PM

You know what's the only bad thing about TV on DVD? It's that horrible sinking feeling you get after buying the first season of any show, the feeling of: What if it doesn't sell and none of the other seasons come out? Except with short-lived shows where the entire series can be released at once, that's almost always a worry.

This doesn't happen with movies, except with sequels, and even there, the titles in a series of movies are often released all at once (e.g. the complete Indiana Jones movies). With TV shows, there's always that undercurrent of fear that there may be no "complete second season," which is why the season 1 release of any show is followed by posts asking "how did it sell? Will there be more seasons?" Because it's a legitimate worry, as The Mary Tyler Moore Show and others have proven. Note: I'm stating this as a fact, not a complaint. Studios can't and shouldn't guarantee to bring out a whole series regardless of how the first season sells. Which is precisely why the first season release will always provoke butterflies in the fan's stomach.

I even feel the fear about shows that have gotten past the first season; for example, my favorite show is King of the Hill, and logically I know that if Fox released the second season and put a "third season coming soon" flyer in the box, they will almost certainly release the third season (since if the sales were bad enough to cancel the releases they'd have stopped after the first season). Yet I admit that I anxiously check TVShowsondvd and won't feel completely at ease about that show until I see an announcement of the third season. And I'm sure everyone has a favorite show that gives them the between-release jitters.

There is no cure for between-release nervousness. TV on DVD is a wonderful thing, and this is the price we pay. Well, that and the actual purchase price.

Glenn Overholt · 02-06-2004, 04:43 PM

All too true. I've been burned that way once, and it won't happen again to me. I will not even consider buying any TV shows until the last season has been released.

As for MTM, that was a shame, even if I didn't want it. With just making up my own figures, if they made 1 million sets of the first season and only 500k of those sold, why don't they just make up 500k of season 2? I have a feeling that the 2nd season would sell about the same as the first one did.

And even if it did only sell 450k, then they can just run off 450k for season 3. Of course, what they don't know is how many people are not buying it because they want to make sure that the entire show is available.

Glenn

Casey Trowbridg · 02-06-2004, 05:14 PM

See, I know all about the between release nervousness, but I don't take the position to simply wait until all seasons are on the shelf before I start buying the show.

A couple of reasons for this:
1. If everyone took this position, then no second season of a show would ever be released because of poor first season sales.
2. There becomes a certain point where you can rightly assume that all seasons of a show will see a release. I'm sure I'll get all 10 seasons of Friends, all 11 seasons of M*A*S*H, all 4 volumes of Futurama, and so on, so forth.
3. If I simply decided to wait and didn't buy the first season of a show, then I found out that said show was not going to see a second season release, I just helped to ensure that a show I wanted on DVD won't make it to the format entirely.
4. I don't feel bad because I haven't gotten seasons 2-7 of MTM. Why? Because I'm happy to have season 1 of the show, it is afterall better than having none of it at all.

What often gets lost in all this is, those that say well I'll just buy season 1 later, is that studios don't really monitor sales of a show after a certain point. I don't know what that point is, I'm sure it differs from studio to studio, but the fact is that if Fox saw a rush of sales of MTM season 1 right now, it may not even have an impact on their decision to release season 2, or beyond. I think the mentality of the studio is that wen we put the first season out, the loyal fans will pick it up within say a few months of the release date, and after that we might get some sales from those more casual fans, but they're not guaranteed to buy future seasons anyway. This is just my guess though, I don't know for certain.

Plus, and I'm sure if I've got this wrong, Gord or David will correct me, but my understanding is that its just not as simple as saying well, we made X number of copies of season 1, and sold Y number of copies, so for season 2 we'll just make Y number of copies. The fact is that you've got to figure in the production cost of Y number of copies, and see if you'll still profit from Y number of sales, and if not that may require a raise in price on season 2, which may then result not in Y number of sales, but now in Z number of sales. I hope I didn't totally lose everyone right then if I was good at math I might have been able to put it in equation form.

All of the above is just IMO of course.

Jaime_Weinman · 02-06-2004, 08:01 PM

Yeah, I feel the same way, at least for a show I really, really want. For a show I'm on the fence about, I might wait and see whether the later seasons become available, but for my favorite shows it's different. Using King of the Hill as an example again, I knew it wouldn't sell on a level with other Fox animated shows, and I was legitimately worried that there might not be a season 2 release, but I bought Season 1 on the first day of release. Partly because if a show I like doesn't get any more releases, I don't want to feel I helped it flop; and partly because, like you say, if I don't get the other seasons I still have season 1.

On the other hand, I bought Mary Tyler Moore season 1, which I don't particularly love (I don't think the show really caught fire until around the third season), and sold it off when future releases were cancelled. So it is possible to get burned on season 1 releases... but if it doesn't sell, whatcha gonna do?

Glenn Overholt · 02-06-2004, 09:10 PM

Casey, your math is right on! I only want to question the studios tracking sales months after a title is out. If there is a second rush of buyers, and the stores all run out, would the studio conside churning out some more to meet the demand?

Glenn

**HTF Ads**

Gord Lacey · 02-06-2004, 09:37 PM

Casey, brilliant post, I couldn't have said it better.

Glenn, there are fixed costs for a title that probably won't change if you're doing 1 million sets, or 10,000. These include: music licensing, restoration (if needed), film transfer, encoding, authoring, menus, subtitles, bonus features. Then you have your per-set costs like replication and packaging. Unfortunately those fixed costs are budgeted with the expectation that they will sell a certain number of copies. If that doesn't happen then they need to cut back on the fixed costs, and if they can't do that then the next season doesn't come out.

Fox has stated that they've found sales of a season 1 set usually stay consistant throughout the life of the series, so they have a fairly good idea where they stand. MTM season 1 sales were low and no season 2 set has come out. Unfortunately another Fox title with an obvious change to it was "NYPD Blue." Yes, it made it to a second season, but how many of you noticed that the sound wasn't Dolby Digital 4.0 like the first set? Uh oh...that's a sign of trouble. Season 3 isn't currently scheduled...draw your own conclusions.

The fact is that most of the people that want a title will buy it in the first few months that it's out. It's like a news item that we post to our site; it's read the most in the first few days because that's when it's new. It's very important to buy the set when it's first released because you're supporting the continuation of the series. As Casey pointed out, waiting for the entire series to be released on DVD before you start buying the first set will only ensure that there's only ever 1 season of a series. The effect that TVShowsOnDVD.com and petitions have on studios is a 1-shot deal - we can only get them to consider starting to release a series. There's no way I could convince a studio to support a show they've lost money on. That's like trying to convince someone to stick their finger in a socket after they've just been electrocuted; you only have 1 chance to do it, then the experience speaks for itself and they have to choose to continue or walk away. I think having 1 season of a show on DVD is better than nothing, isn't it?

This is about money - it needs to be there for these companies to release something, or to continue doing so.

Gord

MichaelFA · 02-06-2004, 11:31 PM

This is a good thread.

I'm definitely feeling very nervous about The third season of The Jeffersons!

But the big problem right now is getting more popular series even announced for a 1st Season relase. (Golden Girls, Family Ties, Who's The Boss, Roseanne, Home Improvement...)

Casey Trowbridg · 02-07-2004, 12:46 AM

Glenn and Gord, thanks for the compliments and so forth, although most of that post is derived from stuff I learned from people like David and Gord and their website/posts to HTF, but that's not the point.

The point is that I agree that this is an interesting thread. You know as I was thinking about my own buying habbits I realize that the TV Shows I want, I'm more likely to buy on release dates than I am the movies I want. Part of the reason for this, is that like has been stated with a TV show your hoping for an entire series to see the light of day on DVD, but with the movie, once you have it you have it, and even if it sees a sequel you still can be assured that it will also see a DVD release.
That doesn't have much to do with the discussion at all, but I did want to make mention of it. This particular section of HTF has existed for like a week and is already my favorite.

MatthewLouwrens · 02-07-2004, 01:00 AM

Quote:

It's very important to buy the set when it's first released because you're supporting the continuation of the series. As Casey pointed out, waiting for the entire series to be released on DVD before you start buying the first set will only ensure that there's only ever 1 season of a series.

Exactly - I'm worried that the first season of Gilmore Girls won't sell well, so that's getting preordered. I'm not even going to wait for a region 4 release.