Why I think BluRay may be the future for CD-based music and HD video content...

Lee Scoggins · 03-15-2004, 06:27 PM

There was an interesting article on BluRay in the Wall Street Journal today. After thinking about the article for a while it seems to me that BluRay could very well become the next DVD and hirez music standard.

This is speculation at this point, but here is the logic in my observation:

1. BluRay has a huge consortium of major consumer electronics firms including Sony, Matsushita, HP, Dell, etc. whereas only Toshiba and NEC have formally committed to HD-DVD and, of course, the Toshiba led DVD Forum.

2. BluRay has 50GB capacity versus 30GB of HD-DVD giving it more storage capacity and I think that bodes well for data uses in the computer space.

3. Sony and Matsushita senior executives have made strong comments about not going the HD-DVD route. Given the market power of everyone involved, the DVD Forum could pretty much be rolled.

4. Repeating the "Beta" mistake is eliminated by the alliance with Matsushita which was not in place before.

5. BluRay recording devices are available, albeit expensive, in Japan. More BluRay devices will filter out in 2004. HD-DVD is only supposed to be available in 2005.

6. Several senior movie studio executives are expressing interest in BluRay.

All these factors combine to present in my humble opinion a real chance for adoption.

I think the benefit for the consumer is very high. High def video is definitely a cool advance and now we can have hirez music across 6+ channels plus video plus features with lots of room left over.

What is your take on this?

Do you think that the advent of high-definition video creates another "window of opportunity" for getting high resolution audio established?

Rachael B · 03-15-2004, 07:15 PM

Yeah Lee, it's another window but such a small minority of folks care about better sounding music that the window might as well be open just to catch the breez, me thinks.

Kevin C Brown · 03-15-2004, 07:24 PM

If people aren't buying (many) SACDs and/or DVD-As now, I don't see how a new type of disc is going to change that. In fact, I could see a Blu Ray hi rez music format as just another thing to confuse the average guy.

Personally, I don't *want* any video with my hi-rez music.

Marc Colella · 03-15-2004, 07:48 PM

SACD/DVD-A is much more than people need or care about.

A format that offers more space and possibly better sound isn't going to make a lick of difference.
MP3s and CDs are perfect for most consumers.

Plus HD-DVD will be the standard high-resolution video format - so if a ultra hi-rez format manages to carve a niche, it won't be with BluRay.

One huge disadvantage to BluRay is that they will have to create new production lines, whereas HD-DVD can use existing production lines and will therefore be a great deal cheaper.

Here's hoping HD-DVD wins the battle.

John Milton · 03-15-2004, 10:11 PM

Personally I like what I've read about Blu-ray better than HD-DVD. Though I think it's possible both will survive. Blu-ray's headstart is a plus but HD-DVD has the name more Joe Sixpack's will be able to figure out. The real key to the success of Blu-ray in this battle is to simply release a lot of great Columbia films quickly. The longer the format waits the harder the challenge will be. If I were Sony I'd be releasing several BR players right now for under a grand. Then ease the prices down to $500 by Christmas, $200 by summer '05. Fast market penetration will do wonders! If they were to release dozens of popular movies on BR discs they'd not only help make their format a success but also drive a lot more people into buying an HDTV. Not everyone likes sports ya know, and that's the main force behind HD sales right now. Lastly, in the first batch of BR discs to be released include The Fifth Element. Movie aside, it was a terrific demo DVD and no doubt would be an even better HD demo. As for music, SACDs are fine by me. I agree with a previous poster who doesn't care to watch music videos on disc. Music to me is more of a nice sort of background entertainment.

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Bill Cowmeadow · 03-15-2004, 10:28 PM

I don't no much about this stuff, but from what I've read, the technology uses very fine laser tracking and is much more suscepible errors from dirt/smudges. Will they use some kind of transport like a cd cadddy to protect the disc? Me and Joe won't go for that.

My 2 Cents.

Jesper · 03-16-2004, 02:51 AM

I don't see cd has any future - we have DVD format and people are getting used to it.. Look at the new surround processors they have lcd screen, new cars - they have lcd screens.. The cd format is dead.

I think Blu-Ray might survive for the proff world - not for the consumer. HD-DVD will do the job.. It woukd be nice to have DVD Audio on HD-DVD!

Lee Scoggins · 03-16-2004, 08:02 AM

Quote:

If people aren't buying (many) SACDs and/or DVD-As now, I don't see how a new type of disc is going to change that. In fact, I could see a Blu Ray hi rez music format as just another thing to confuse the average guy.

We have not seen hirez marketed effectively to the man/woman on the street. I think a massive marketing campaign for the new video format that also speaks to better music quality could change that.

Quote:

Personally, I don't *want* any video with my hi-rez music.

Me thinks you are in the minority, especially if its a free added feature.

Quote:

Plus HD-DVD will be the standard high-resolution video format - so if a ultra hi-rez format manages to carve a niche, it won't be with BluRay.

I don't think so. There are 12 large companies supporting it versus 2 committed for HD DVD.

Quote:

One huge disadvantage to BluRay is that they will have to create new production lines, whereas HD-DVD can use existing production lines and will therefore be a great deal cheaper.

But both require major investments. My money is on Sony and Matsushita given the market presence and power they have and the distributor and retailer relationships.

Quote:

If I were Sony I'd be releasing several BR players right now for under a grand. Then ease the prices down to $500 by Christmas, $200 by summer '05. Fast market penetration will do wonders!

I agree.

Lee Scoggins · 03-16-2004, 08:04 AM

Quote:

I don't no much about this stuff, but from what I've read, the technology uses very fine laser tracking and is much more suscepible errors from dirt/smudges.

Bill, they figured this one out - no caddy - see yesterday's Wall Street Journal. The Sony engineer does a demo where he grinds dirt into a BluRay disc and it still plays!