Why SACD is not bigger than it is... - Page 5

Seth--L · 08-04-2003, 10:13 AM

Lee,

I don't think you can compare sales numbers of CD and SACD/DVD-A to track how well the hi-rez formats are doing because this isn't 1984. Numerous variables have changed since then that influenced initials sales of CD.

Lee Scoggins · 08-04-2003, 10:30 AM

Quote:

I don't think you can compare sales numbers of CD and SACD/DVD-A to track how well the hi-rez formats are doing because this isn't 1984.

Well, first off: This is from a senior guy at CEA, not me. Second, consulting firms typically develop "product adoption" curves for new media and they usually have the same adoption rates even at different points in time.

So I would say it is very valid to look at the adoption of redbook as we all assume it took off like a rocket but in fact was slower to replace LP and Cassette. So I think that's valuable history to study.

No doubt that 2003 is far different than 1984, but it is possible that things could improve the environment for adoption...what if the big record labels decided to settle on one hirez format (or two even) and move all new production to that new format?

Even just a move to hybrid and an incorporation of "universal chips" into all major brand DVD players would have a tremendous impact IMHO.

I think more acceptance is definitely possible, due to cheaper chips coming on the horizon and a very strong title release slate for Fall.

I think I would be happy if just the Home Theater crowd and audiophile crowd adopted hirez. I just want to get enough critical mass for all the major titles (particularly in jazz and classical) to be released and for there to be some longevity in equipment sales and service.

I like LP too but it is definitely less convenient than high resolution audio.

Marc Colella · 08-04-2003, 11:20 AM

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Wargo suggests that there is a similarity between the introduction of high-rez audio and that of the CD back in 1984. "Each product—CD, DVD, DVD-A, and SACD—met the 250,000 units-shipped mark by the third year. The audio industry tends to cycle through periods of growth as each new and improved technology is introduced."

I think they are off base with this comparison.

They may have started off similarily, but there's no way the trend will continue. The next five years of Hi-Rez will not mimic that of year 6-10 for CD.

CD represented a major improvement (to the average consumer) than tape and vinyl. To them, it was actually an upgrade in sound quality (no cracks and pops from LPs), and 5" discs were more durable and convenient.

Hi-Rez represents nothing more than a way of getting more cash from the consumer by offering n improvement in sound quality that the average consumer won't notice and won't care about. It's not a "real" upgrade to most.

John Kotches · 08-04-2003, 11:59 AM

Marc,

The quantum leap (if you will) for either high-res alternative is multi-channel, which offers a significantly different (and immediately noticable) presentation to the consumer.

Whether you like or don't like the presentation is another matter altogether.

With the introduction of inexepensive front ends, like LSI's Ziva-6 which can handle loader functions for all formats it is theoretically possible that universals could hit the $100 price point...

Interesting times, no doubt.

Regards,

Lee Scoggins · 08-04-2003, 02:15 PM

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With the introduction of inexepensive front ends, like LSI's Ziva-6 which can handle loader functions for all formats it is theoretically possible that universals could hit the $100 price point...

Wow! Something that John and I both agree on. Someone give Keith some smelling salts.

Marc,

I personally hear a big difference with hirez (either 24/96 or DSD) on even the most humble systems, but there some who would point out to you that early CD was horrible compared to the turntable rigs of the time. Yet redbook CD took off anyway...after a while even digitally-oriented audiophiles realized something was amiss. The highs seemed scratchy and less smooth. Eventually LP came back to a degree.

I think the more time people spend with Super Audio or DVD Audio, the more they want to see more titles in the format. As long as the formats continue to deliver the goods, more and more word will get out and more people will try it.

I really see things catching on.

Marc Colella · 08-04-2003, 02:24 PM

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The quantum leap (if you will) for either high-res alternative is multi-channel, which offers a significantly different (and immediately noticable) presentation to the consumer.

I'll give you that. M/C will make it noticable for consumers... can't argue that.

Whether the average consumer cares about hearing their music in M/C is another matter. In my opinion, most won't care.
M/C is a major selling point for home theatres though, and that's where I think the market is headed in terms of M/C. Naturally there'll be some overlap to M/C music... how much has yet to be determined, but I'm guessing it's a small overlap.

Lee Scoggins · 08-04-2003, 02:40 PM

Quote:

M/C is a major selling point for home theatres though, and that's where I think the market is headed in terms of M/C.

I think we are possibly seeing the splintering of the high end market into two parts:

1. Audiophiles with a predominant interestin jazz and classical and a preference for 2 channel. They prefer Super Audio due to title selection and partially high end media focus on same.

2. Home Theater buffs who like M-C and have DVDA capability or are considering it. They prefer DVDA or universals and enjoy the ability to be immersed in multiple channel soundfield.

I think both market segments could survive.

I also think there might not be a format war, just market niches which cater to different groups of people.

Frank_S · 08-04-2003, 03:06 PM

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Whether the average consumer cares about hearing their music in M/C is another matter. In my opinion, most won't care.
M/C is a major selling point for home theatres though, and that's where I think the market is headed in terms of M/C. Naturally there'll be some overlap to M/C music... how much has yet to be determined, but I'm guessing it's a small overlap.

Marc, I agree, and also factor in the WAF with M/C. I doubt anyone will go out and buy a 5+1 speaker setup just to hear M/C SACD.

Lee Scoggins · 08-04-2003, 03:55 PM

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I doubt anyone will go out and buy a 5+1 speaker setup just to hear M/C SACD.

Frank, many people are doing just that. I don't know why that would be different from DVDA? The speaker purchase decision seems indifferent to format...

Frank_S · 08-04-2003, 04:03 PM

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Frank, many people are doing just that. I don't know why that would be different from DVDA? The speaker purchase decision seems indifferent to format...

Lee, I believe more DVD players come with DVD-Audio capability at the moment so it would make sense that DVD-Audio would be more common to the average consumer. Audiophiles who are not the majority may prefer SACD and actually purchase 5+1 speakers just to hear SACD but I think mainstream America will take DVD-Audio over SACD if they can have DVD-Audio for free. I know there are SACD/DVD players out here too but I just think SACD has an uphill battle especially if they come out with SACD II, it can only confuse the consumer even more.

Lee Scoggins · 08-04-2003, 04:17 PM

Here is a suggestion from Steve Hoffman for those of you who don't think the extra resolution matters...

Quote:

Do this test. (I assume you have the SACD of Creedence "Willie & The Poor Boys"). Go to your high end stereo store and listen to JUST THE ECHO SEND at the beginning of "Fortunate Son". Notice how on the SACD layer you can hear exactly where the echo goes, how long it lasts, etc. This is more blurry on the CD layer. Now that you know what to listen for, compare a cheap player that does not do straight DSD to a player that does using this song. Hear the difference? That's RESOLUTION. Though the tonality is the same, the resolution (the ability to hear "into" the recording) is heightened with the DSD machine. Now, if this is something that floats your boat, save your nickels. If not, no harm done!

A fair test I think...

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I think mainstream America will take DVD-Audio over SACD if they can have DVD-Audio for free.

The new Wrinkle Frank is that consumers now have the new $179 Pioneer DVDA/SACD universal player that does both. With the new LSI cheap universal chips, DVD fans will get both.

As for SACDII, we don't have any official word yet and this will depend on how they market it.