[Michael Reuben]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Crawford

It's Ruby Dee and she will be a sentimental favorite which is why I think she'll win it.

I have to agree. Not only is she a sentimental favorite, but she also has a body of extraordinary work going back decades. It would be a career award as much as an award for American Gangster.

I also agree that Julie Christie will win Best Actress, but as much as I loved Away From Her, that's not the performance I'd vote for. No screen performance in 2007 left me shaken to the core the way Marion Cotillard's did in La Vie en Rose.

I doubt, though, that any performance could overcome the depth of goodwill that Julie Christie enjoys in Hollywood (and with good reason).

M.

[brianlove84]

I believe Ellen Page should win Best Actress for Juno. She really did a great job.

[Vickie_M]

(snob alert, sorry)

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianlove84

I believe Ellen Page should win Best Actress for Juno.

I take it you can say that based on having seen The Savages, La Vie En Rose and Away From Her, right? There's a big difference between saying "I'd like her to win" and "She should win."

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianlove84

She really did a great job.

Agreed, but for her to win over Cotillard, Christie and Linney (I haven't seen Elizabeth myself) would be an absolute joke, just as the absurd thought of Juno winning over There Will Be Blood, No Country For Old Men, Michael Clayton or Atonement is. Page didn't even give the best comedic performance this year, IMO. I'd give that kudo to Amy Adams.

After Brokeback lost to Crash I will never again be shocked at anything the AMPAS voters will do, but come on, really. They can't be THAT insane.

I liked Juno, saw it 3 times, but this is more a People's Choice Awards winner than an Academy Award winner. I'm glad it got nominated even if I would have preferred to see The Diving Bell and the Butterfly in its place. It's the "little movie that could" just like The Full Monty, Babe, and Little Miss Sunshine, and good for it (and them) but it does NOT belong in the pantheon of Best Picture WINNERS.

As it is, if There Will Be Blood loses, people in the future will say "I cannot BELIEVE that There Will Be Blood lost Best Picture!" but at least, the way it looks now, others will be able to say "Yeah, but at least it lost to No Country For Old Men," prompting the first person to say "Oh yeah, ok, there is that." It's like Chinatown losing Best Picture, but hey, it lost to The Godfather Part II. What can you say to that? There Will Be Blood (and No Country) losing to Juno would be akin to Chinatown and The Godfather Part II BOTH losing to The Towering Inferno, also nominated that year.

It can't happen. It just cannot happen. PLEASE don't let the Oscar voters be that mundane. No Juno, no Ellen. A part of me will die if that happens.


Ellen's a wonderful actress and will only get better. Her day will come.

[Holadem]

Linney nom is a bit surprising. She is never anything less than excellent, but at the same time, that character and performance was rather routine. Excellent, but routine, if that makes sense. She does stuff like that in her sleep, so I didn't expect the nod.

--
H

[Adam_S]

right now I think the likelyhood of win is:

1. No Country for Old Men
2. Michael Clayton
3. Juno
4. There Will be Blood
5. Atonement

If No country doesn't win, I'd expect Michael Clayton to take the prize ala Crash.

[Michael Elliott]

I just got back from THERE WILL BE BLOOD and while it's a very impressive film, it still had a few problems. I'd give it but a second viewing might do me good.

As far as Daniel Day-Lewis goes, he certainly is great here but I'd say his performance in GANGS OF NEW YORK was better and if he wins this year then I'd say they are making up for robbing him there. Familiar characters and all.

I don't put too much into the Oscars but if MICHAEL CLAYTON wins then hell has frozen over. I was at the theater twice this week when this was letting out and the crowds coming out of it were yawning and calling the film overrated. I heard several people commit on saying they should have stuck to their guns and not watched it like the first time it was in theaters.

I also watched THE KING OF KONG this week and I hope one day someone does a documentary on how the Best Documentary noms are picked. GRIZZLY MAN was overlooked a few years ago and now this film. Shame.

[Adam_S]

What Michael Clayton has going for it really has no negatives and is a perfectly solid film. That plus its cast, it's script and overall classyness (and classicness) of the production. It's very elegant and really appeals to the academy's demographic.

No Country's biggest positive is that it's winning every award, every precursor, has widespread support and a general industry feeling that the Coen's are due. Plus an iconic villain. The biggest negative is that some people really dislike the post modern ending.

Juno has a lot of industry support but will probably only win screenplay, the academy is always nervous to really come out in support of a comedy because comedies so rarely win. Other than the back to back comedy wins of Shakespeare in Love and American Beauty you have to go back Terms of Endearment to find another winner, and all three of these films were viewed as primarily dramas on the first go round

There Will Be Blood has a lot of goodwill for Day Lewis' performance, but a lot of academy members don't like that it doesn't have a traditional story or a-z arc, and again, the post modern ending.

Atonement - the post modern ending strikes again. and the academy would rather see a traditional love story than a film that doubles as a slightly over the top commentary on our need for traditional love stories and tidy, classic closure in film.

[Marianne]

BAFTA Winners:

Best film: ATONEMENT

Best Actor: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS

Best Actress: MARION COTILLARD

Best Director: JOEL & ETHAN COEN

Best Supporting Actor: JAVIER BARDEM

Best Supporting Actress: TILDA SWINTON

[Robert Crawford]

It looks to me that there is not much excitement this year about the Oscars based on so little postings about them here.





Crawdaddy

[Vickie_M]

I wasn't very excited last year. I was still hurting terribly from Brokeback Mountain's loss and though I liked most of the movies up for nominations, there wasn't anything I felt passionate about.

This year's totally different. I'm passionate, nay, totally completely OBSESSED with There Will Be Blood and I'm beyond thrilled that it got 8 nominations. However, unlike Brokeback, it didn't enter into this backstretch the frontrunner, so I'm resigned to it only winning Best Actor. I can hope for maybe Cinematography (based on the Guild win) and Art Direction (again based on the Guild win), but I'm not expecting them. In my wildest dreams of course I would like to see TWBB win Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Art Direction. In my wildest dreams.

The thing is, the consolation I can take with There Will Be Blood not winning any of the biggies besides Actor is that, almost certainly, No Country For Old Men will win those awards (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay) and it's the COEN FREAKIN' BROTHERS! That's just so amazing and wonderful. Any disappointment I might feel at TWBB losing will be offset by my thrill at seeing the Coens getting up there to accept their awards. It helps me, knowing that though my very favorite movie of 2007 by one of my favorite directors will lose, it will lose to one of my favorite movies of 2007 by my very favorite directors. Win-win, all around. Unless voters suddenly become brain-damaged, TWBB is pretty much guaranteed one Oscar, and since I think it's one of the greatest performances ever put on film, hell yeah, I'll take that, with a big smile.

Knowing the psychological pain that Brokeback's loss put me through (gut-punched, I tell you), I'm telling myself that I won't be toooo awfully upset if Atonement or even Michael Clayton were to sneak in and win Best Picture. Atonement's an Oscary film and wouldn't be an embarrassment, and I loved Michael Clayton, so I think I can handle it. I would however shut the TV off in utter rage if Juno won BP. The closer the Oscars get, and especially now when we know there actually will be an Oscar ceremony, the more worried I am that Juno is going to ruin my night. I like Juno too much to want to hate it the way I'll hate it if it wins BP.

I don't have TV so I've missed the other awards things this year. I missed BAFTA and BFCA, though I did watch the, uh, "Golden Globes" online. I remember when I used to tape/Tivo every single thing leading up to the big night. That's probably helped keep me tempered.

But I am excited. Very!