Tino

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

BTW, glad to see such a small drop for Tropic Thunder. Funniest film I have seen in a loooong time and glad that good word of mouth is helping it.

Draco Dormiens Nunquam Titillandus.

Chuck Mayer

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Why do people think it'll be a monster? I actually don't. But I do think it's the big release of 2009. Frankly, it's probably the big release of the 2000's.

Let's look at the storyline:

1) Jim Cameron - his track record for success is pretty legendary
2) The Budget - 300 million dollars
2a) The Budget + Jim Cameron - JC has NEVER failed to raise the bar on visuals or action; when you see Avatar...it won't be like anything you've ever seen. Not Star Wars, not LOTR, not The Matrix. His budgets are always completely on screen, and then some.
3) It's a marriage of his appeal to men (toys and action) and women (it's a sufficiently dramatic story about relationships)
4) We're going to find out what cachet "From the Director of T2, Aliens, and Titanic" carries...
5) Technology - people are going to see if 3D is viable. I'm skeptical about it. That said, I've waited for Avatar for a long time, so I'll go anywhere to see it the way it's intended to be seen. If that involves a plane and a hotel, so be it.

With that budget, it is still a big risk. Teenagers don't know who JC is. They do know The Terminator, and they might know Titanic. But the trailer will be sufficient to get them into seats. Older fans probably have good memories of JC films, though. And JC is still a very bankable name internationally. Fox probably feels pretty safe with their money.

As for it being a monster, I'm sure it'll make $300M. That doesn't make it a monster, I admit. But it's upside is pretty tremendous.

Steve_Tk

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

I'm skeptical because I can't imagine anything yet because we have not seen even the slightest thing. A teaser, or stills from production, or something would give me a better idea where this is going.

Chuck Mayer

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

The old scriptment has been available on the net (if you look hard) for over 5 years.

Why would there be a teaser for a film that is 16 months away?

Brent M

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

That's a pretty bold statement to make without having seen a single frame of film. In the end you might be right, but just because it costs $300 million doesn't mean it's going to be the most visually impressive film ever made. As for being the big release of the 2000's, clearly that title goes to TDK right now and unless Avatar makes over $500 million(which it almost surely won't) I think the crown will stay firmly on top of Christopher Nolan's head.

"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."

Edwin-S

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Your statement that a film nowhere near release won't make 500 million is no less bold than his statement that the film will be like nothing seen before. Frankly, at least his statement is underpinned by Cameron's past performance and history. What underpinning does your statement have?

When you have to shoot...shoot. Don't talk!

Chuck Mayer

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

I didn't clarify what I meant by big release, so my bad. Brent, "big release" isn't necessarily the "most successful" release. Titanic was the most successful release of the 90's, but TPM was probably the "big release". I am talking about pre-release interest and potential.

And I don't think saying that Avatar will be like nothing you've ever seen is a bold statement in the least. Cameron has a proven track record regarding his budgets vs. visual competence and spectacle. Frankly, it's a sucker's bet to me. It could cost half that, but I'd still make the claim based on the scriptment and Cameron's previous films. You saw things you'd never seen in The Abyss, T2, and Titanic. I didn't say it'd be the most visually impressive film ever made. Cameron isn't Terrence Malick

There is a possibility that JC has lost his touch. If he has, I'll be proven wrong. But if he is in rare form, I'm be underselling the film.

Hey, be skeptical. You don't know anything about the film. And you probably won't until next summer. But I am comfortable using past performance as a metric. It's why I haven't seen a frame from TF2, and I am pretty certain it'll be empty-headed spectacle (Bay). It's why I haven't seen a frame from Avatar, but I'm perfectly comfortable calling it the BIG FILM of 2009. Even Michael Bay would agree to that.

Brent M

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

It's just a guess, like his. I didn't know we had to back up statements here with scientific proof.

"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."

Andy Sheets

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

Based on what I read of it, it sounds like a sci-fi version of Dances With Wolves, although that's assuming it hasn't been heavily rewritten over the past few years.

Edwin-S

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

I never asked for scientific proof. His statement was more than a guess, since it is based on the past performance of the director in question. Yours really was a guess with nothing to back it up and yet it was presented as if it was a foregone conclusion. I only wanted to know why you feel that an unreleased film has no chance of overtaking TDK.

Granted, I'm not going to go so far as to say that AVATAR will overtake TDK; however, if there is anyone who can make a film that has a chance of doing so then it is Cameron.

When you have to shoot...shoot. Don't talk!

Brent M

Re: 2008 at the Box Office

The reason I say Avatar almost surely won't make $500 million is because after TDK reaches that mark there will be TWO films in history to have done that. I think it's a pretty safe "guess" on my part to say it won't reach that plateau, but I guess time will tell.

"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."