2008 at the Box Office - Page 67

Douglas Monce · 08-15-2008, 03:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavidPla

I'm shocked at how low Tropic Thunder opened. I really do hope that it's the opposite of Pineapple Express where its weekend will be its biggest numbers. We'll see Friday...

If I was Paramount, I would move Star Trek back to its Christmas or even to a Thanksgiving release now that Harry Potter has moved. It would give it a much, MUCH better release date than the dead Speed Racer release date it's got now and have a clear run for the family audience.

I don't think Harry Potter is being released until the middle of July so that gives Star Trek a good month.

Doug

Douglas Monce · 08-15-2008, 03:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TerryRL

It is a bit of a risk, but one that could prove to be very profitable. On top of that, WB realized that after May next year, the pickings become very slim and they have a great opportunity to cash in on that. This had ZERO to do with the writers' strike. This is purely about the nickels and dimes people.

Well doesn't the lack of releases after may have something to do with the writers strike, giving HP an opening in July?

Doug

TerryRL · 08-15-2008, 03:34 AM

Nikki Finke’s Deadline Hollywood Daily » Studio Lowering ‘Tropic Thunder’ B.O. Weekend Estimate To Mid-$30s Million

Very early Thursday numbers for Tropic Thunder's domestic box office are running around $4.5 million after its Wednesday opening take of $6.5 million in 3,319 theaters. And tonight DreamWorks/Paramount is starting to revise downward the weekend and 5-day forecasts for the R-rated movie-within-a-movie comedy from Ben Stiller. Currently, the studio is expecting Pineapple Express-like North American gross of low to mid $20sM for the Friday-Saturday-Sunday weekend (down from low $30sM) and mid $30sM for the 5 days (down from $40M). Just one problem: Sony claimed Pineapple Express' negative cost was $27M, while I'm told Tropic Thunder's budget ballooned to $110+M. Yikes! Opening Friday, the LucasFilm/Warner Bros' Star Wars: The Clone Wars toon has box office predictions ranging from $15M to low $20sM in 3,300+ venues. The higher numbers depend on how many 8 to 11 aged boys show up to see it.--Nikki Finke

TerryRL · 08-15-2008, 03:42 AM

Douglas, not really, WB execs made this decision as soon as the returns for TDK came rolling in. HP6 would've dominated the box office in its prior November release, but WB brass believes that there is bigger box office potential during the summer, especially considering that two of the final three movies will launch on summer dates. The fact that some projects got shelved due to the strike turned out to be one of those unforseen benefits.

Even if a major title had locked a release close to the new 7/17/09 date, there isn't much out there that would scare WB away since Harry Potter is currently the industry's most lucrative franchise. They feel they have the best movie of the series and they feel very confident opening nearly a year to the day of TDK's record start.

Brandon Conway · 08-15-2008, 04:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick H.

All I can say is, if I were J.J. Abrams, I'd be pretty ripped right now. With Potter pushed back, Christmas is REALLY wide open. After Bond in November, there is NOTHING. But now his 'Trek' is stuck in, as somebody mentioned, the 'Speed Racer' slot...NOT the first big film in May, and with the big June films hot on its heals (one of which is Paramount's own 'Transformers' sequel). Stupid, particularly if the film is ready to go.

And I'm not sure Warner's move will work in their favor either. Six more months means six more months for the Potter craze to burn out. As has been mentioned, there's no book coming out to tie into, and this will also be the longest gap between films, yes?

Well, 'The Tales of Beedle the Bard' will be published on 12/04/08.

Chuck Mayer · 08-15-2008, 09:39 AM

The HP craze isn't burning out. It's simmering. It's fans reread the series occasionally. They don't need a constant presence. 7 long books worm their way into your sub-consciousness a lot deeper and more permanently than a 2 hour film.

DavidPla · 08-15-2008, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Douglas Monce

I don't think Harry Potter is being released until the middle of July so that gives Star Trek a good month.

Doug

Not really... the week before it opens Wolverine opens then the week after Angels & Demons opens and then the week after that both Night at the Museum 2 and Terminator Salvation opens taking away BOTH the intended family and sci-fi audience.

Kevin Grey · 08-15-2008, 10:36 AM

Quote:

WB saw how well TDK did with this release date and decided to "roll the dice" with their most lucrative franchise and put HP6 in the same date next year. With TDK poised to become only the second film in history to top the $500 million domestic mark, the studio brass believe that HP6 can take advantage of that release date. The "suits" believe that HP6 is the biggest and best of the Potter flicks thus far and believe it can become the second flick of the franchise to top the triple-century mark domestically (joining the first film).

Frankly that's laughable- OotP pretty much had that release slot (and was also considered the "biggest and the best") and while it did fantastic, it was still only $2 million over what Goblet did in November and, as noted before, that was with peak interest in the franchise. Those Dark Knight grosses must be making them so euphoric that they've lost perspective- there is almost no reason to believe that HBP becomes a $400 million film (or even a $350 million film) with this move.

It's the sixth film in a franchise with remarkably consistent grosses. There a lot of of other elements than just release date that made TDK the perfect storm of movie releases and those other elements just aren't present in Half Blood Prince.

Brandon Conway · 08-15-2008, 12:01 PM

Terry, what would be the odds of Paramount moving Star Trek back up for December now that there is less competition? Has such a thing been done before (moving a film back 6 months, then moving it back up 6 months)?

Malcolm R · 08-15-2008, 12:47 PM

I'd imagine the HP move has to do with boosting the studio's bottom line in the next fiscal year as much as trying to maximize potential box office. WB has TDK to fill this year's coffers. They may have been light for next year, which would hit the bottom line hard if they had both TDK and HP in this year's figures.

Sean Laughter · 08-15-2008, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon Conway

Terry, what would be the odds of Paramount moving Star Trek back up for December now that there is less competition? Has such a thing been done before (moving a film back 6 months, then moving it back up 6 months)?

I don't know if it will happen, but I'd welcome a move back. It would be nice to have Star Trek back during the holiday season (even if turns out to only be once).