2008 at the Box Office - Page 4

Bill GrandPre · 12-19-2007, 06:24 PM

Does anyone actually have any figures relating to the DVD sales vs. the number of tickets sold?

Edit, this Hollywood Reporter article:

Warner tops DVD share in 'Incredible' '05

cites 6.15 million copies of "Batman Begins" by the end of 2005.

That is CERTAINLY not a step up from the box-office performance. That article pretty much sums up how the "Batman Begins" DVD sales were very much in-line with the theatrical performance. It was only the 10th best-selling DVD of the year:

#1: The Incredibles (17.4)
#2: Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (10.4)
#3: Madagascar (10) (tie)
#3: Shark Tale (10) (tie)
#5: The Polar Express (8.1)
#6: Meet the Fockers (7.21)
#7: National Treasure (7.2)
#8: Cinderella (6.56)
#9: Ray (6.53)
#10: Batman Begins (6.15)

Based on Box Office Mojo's claim that the average ticket prices in 2005 were $6.40 you can estimate that about 32 million tickets were sold in the US, and I think the 32:6 tickets-to-DVD sales ratio actually supports my "die-hards seeing the movie repeatedly and buying the DVD" theory.

Charles LaSalle · 12-19-2007, 11:55 PM

Great post Bill. I think you've more than proved that TDK will not be a financial success.

Travis_S · 12-20-2007, 12:24 AM

This thread will really become fun in 8 months...

Russell B · 12-20-2007, 12:35 AM

I'm more surprised that 8 of the top 9 didn't sell atleast twice as many as BB considering 5 of them are animated and have a much bigger market to sell to.

Patrick Sun · 12-20-2007, 12:49 AM

Also, BB on DVD was initially released in the middle of October of 2005, so only 10 weeks of sales account for that particular title's sales for that particular stat being bandied about as BB's appeal to only the "die-hards". It would be better to find out how many DVDs BB sold in 6-12 months, not just 2.5 months.

The Incredibles DVD sales were reported as being soft compared to other animated fare on DVD of years past. DVD sales have been softening in the past few years as discounting becomes prevalent, causing people to hold off buying DVD titles until they get discounted in weekly sales.

Bill GrandPre · 12-20-2007, 02:35 AM

Quote:

Also, BB on DVD was initially released in the middle of October of 2005, so only 10 weeks of sales account for that particular title's sales for that particular stat being bandied about as BB's appeal to only the "die-hards". It would be better to find out how many DVDs BB sold in 6-12 months, not just 2.5 months.

Well, "Revenge of the Sith" was released TWO WEEKS AFTER "Batman Begins" and managed to hit #2 for the year with nearly twice as many copies sold as "Batman Begins".

Also, the bulk of sales occur during that fourth quarter anyway, it's the time when most of the summer blockbusters are hitting video and even more importantly it's the Holiday season.

I also think it's pretty safe to assume that most copies were sold early on in the DVD's availability to the aforementioned die-hard fanbase that I believe drove the limited success of "Batman Begins".

Quote:

Great post Bill. I think you've more than proved that TDK will not be a financial success.

"Batman Begins" was a financial success and I believe "The Dark Knight" will be a financial success, too.

I just think everything points to it being a much smaller success than you might think from looking online.

Based on internet posts it seems like "Batman Begins" is just unanimously-loved and that "The Dark Knight" is the most-anticipated movie of '08 but it's been proven time and time again that the internet isn't a reliable gauge of real-life interest in a movie, especially in a case where there's such an obvious overlap between this kind of movie-based internet activity and interest in the "Batman" character.

I'd be hard-pressed to deny that I'm a nerd so I'm not trying to be insulting when I say this but it's the truth, the internet is full of nerds and nerds luvs "Batman".

My basic point is this: who could honestly think "The Dark Knight" could gross as much or more than "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" when "Wedding Crashers" beat "Batman Begins" last time around?

Jose Martinez · 12-20-2007, 02:43 AM

What's really stupid is how these "nerds" think a movie will make $500 mil when they end up stealing the movie online rather than paying to see it on the big screen.

Patrick Sun · 12-20-2007, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill GrandPre

Well, "Revenge of the Sith" was released TWO WEEKS AFTER "Batman Begins" and managed to hit #2 for the year with nearly twice as many copies sold as "Batman Begins".

Also, the bulk of sales occur during that fourth quarter anyway, it's the time when most of the summer blockbusters are hitting video and even more importantly it's the Holiday season.

I also think it's pretty safe to assume that most copies were sold early on in the DVD's availability to the aforementioned die-hard fanbase that I believe drove the limited success of "Batman Begins".

But going by your logic, RotS should have done gangbusters on the DVD sales level, but its box office ticket/DVD sales ratio is 59.4/10.4 (5.71) while BB's is 32/6.15 (5.21). BB held its own w/r/t RotS considering the ticket-buying audience for each film in terms of DVD sales. Plus Star Wars has been a much more viable film franchise for those 7-10 years leading up to RotS (don't forget the re-release theatrically of the spruced up editions of Episode IV-VI, I didn't know anyone clamoring for more Batman films in the past decade before BB, especially not after the sour taste left by Batman and Robin). BB had to win back its audience through the quality of the product on the screen and word of mouth. At this point, it's earning more and more potential viewers of TDK through the marketing and the limited pedigree of BB for a good run in the summer of 2008. Like others have mentioned, TDK is positioned to have a good leggy run through the rest of the summer and some of the fall since the slate is devoid of blockbusters, time will tell if it succumbs to being a front-loaded success, or an enduring one in 2008.

Just my gut feeling, IJ&KOCS will be more of a front-loaded success, but not as leggy, not in today's movie-going climate. I can't say I have a strong premonition that TDK will out-gross IJ&KOCS, it probably won't, but it'll be closer than most movie box office prognosticator think it will, perhaps within $60 million (or 20%-25% of the winning BO total), which would be fine by me. But as a non-stockholder in either studios, it's all just good ol' fashioned box office chit-chat.

Pete-D · 12-20-2007, 01:00 PM

Well I'm convinced.

The Dark Knight will make be out of the theaters within a week, clearly the general audience has no interest in this character.

Bring back Shumacher. Maybe they can get Paris Hilton to play Poison Ivy next time out and Dane Cook as the Scarecrow. You know to really appeal to that teen demographic.

If the general audience would rather watch crap like The Mummy III ... really that's their loss as far as I'm concerned. Kudos to Warner Bros. for giving a director who has an actual vision a shot at this franchise rather than treating it like a cheap cash cow. I don't know if TDK will be as good as Batman Begins, but at least I get the sense here that there are people who care about this character and it's not being made by a committee of marketing execs.

Indiana Jones should be good, but really after The Phantom Menace, I'm not as enthusiastic that this is necessarily a guaranteed slam dunk either. The IJ fanbase is not nearly as rabid as the Star Wars fanbase, if it's not there up on the screen, that movie could fade very quickly too.

Brandon Conway · 12-20-2007, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charles LaSalle

Great post Bill. I think you've more than proved that TDK will not be a financial success.

Let's not go insane here. The film will most definitely make a significant profit, and that is all that is needed to be a "financial success".