2008 at the Box Office - Page 11

TerryRL · 02-24-2008, 06:06 PM

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Vantage Point" $24.0 million
#2 "Jumper" $12.7 million ($56.2 million) -54%
#3 "The Spiderwick Chronicles" $12.6 million ($43.6 million) -34%
#4 "Step Up 2 the Streets" $9.8 million ($41.4 million) -48%
#5 "Fool's Gold" $6.3 million ($52.4 million) -51%
#6 "Definitely, Maybe" $5.2 million ($21.8 million) -47%
#7 "Be Kind, Rewind" $4.1 million
#8 "Juno" $4.1 million ($130.4 million) -11%
#9 "Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins" $4.0 million ($35.5 million) -53%
#10 "There Will Be Blood" $2.6 million ($35.0 million) -16%
#11 "The Bucket List" $2.6 million ($85.2 million) -36%
#12 "No Country for Old Men" $2.3 million ($64.2 million) +21%

TerryRL · 03-01-2008, 03:55 PM

Friday Estimates

#1 "Semi-Pro" $5.5 million
#2 "Vantage Point" $3.7 million ($31.7 million) 53% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "The Other Boleyn Girl" $2.8 million
#4 "Jumper" $2.2 million ($61.4 million) 42% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "The Spiderwick Chronicles" $1.9 million ($48.2 million) 36% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Step Up 2 the Streets" $1.7 million ($44.6 million) 44% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Fool's Gold" $1.3 million ($55.7 million) 33% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Penelope" $1.1 million
#9 "No Country for Old Men" $1.04 million ($66.6 million) 85% Friday-to-Friday increase
#10 "Definitely, Maybe" $1.00 million ($24.3 million) 38% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "Juno" $915K ($132.7 million) 15% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins" $640K ($37.1 million) 39% Friday-to-Friday drop

"Semi-Pro" came in way under industry prejections yesterday and will end up opening with about $14-$17 million. A decent debut, but a very disappointing start for a film that many expected would open north of the $30 million mark.

While this will be another "down" weekend compared to last year (the fourth consecutive), the industry took solace in the fact that February '08 will go down as the biggest February frame in history, pulling in about $690 million, besting the $666.1 million haul from '04 for bragging rights. Overall, '04 still has the record for most ticket sales (106.7 million admissions compared to about 99 million for '08).

February '08 had the best ticket sales the month has seen in four years. While this slump hasn't been much of a concern to the studios (as of now), March's lineup of films should be able to keep pace with last year's slate (not included the juggernaut that was "300" of course).

TerryRL · 03-02-2008, 02:48 PM

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Semi-Pro" $15.2 million
#2 "Vantage Point" $13.0 million ($41.0 million) -43%
#3 "The Spiderwick Chronicles" $8.8 million ($55.1 million) -33%
#4 "The Other Boleyn Girl" $8.3 million
#5 "Jumper" $7.6 million ($66.8 million) -40%
#6 "Step Up 2 the Streets" $5.7 million ($48.6 million) -41%
#7 "Fool's Gold" $4.7 million ($59.1 million) -28%
#8 "Penelope" $4.006 million
#9 "No Country for Old Men" $4.005 million ($69.6 million) +67%
#10 "Juno" $3.4 million ($135.1 million) -19%
#11 "Definitely, Maybe" $3.3 million ($26.5 million) -38%
#12 "Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins" $2.7 million ($39.2 million) -35%

The industry suffered a 28% dip compared to last year's numbers, behind the unexpectedly soft opening of "Semi-Pro". Business was only off by 4% compared to '06. The industry seems confident that this latest box office slump won't last too long. On top of that, as we enter March, February '08 earned the biggest numbers the industry has ever enjoyed, pulling in $692.3 million compared to the $666.1 million haul from February '04. '04 still holds the record mark of ticket sales at 107.3 compared to the nearly 99 million sold this past month.

Despite the "slump", 2008's year-to-date domestic tally stands at a whopping $1.599 billion, which is 13% stronger than both '07 ($1.410 billion) and '06 ($1.416 billion), up 14% over '05 ($1.400 billion), and 11% stronger than '04 ($1.444 billion).

'08 has now sold about 228 million admissions compared to the 206.8 million '07 had moved, the 216 million '06 sold, '05 was sitting on a total of about 219 million, and '04 had sold an impressive 232.6 million tickets.

Next weekend will see WB releases "10,000 B.C.", Disney will launch "College Road Trip", Lionsgate will release "The Bank Job", and Focus Features' Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day" will open in 400-500 theaters.

Patrick Sun · 03-02-2008, 03:58 PM

I suspect Semi-pro will do a quick fade. I'm surprised to see "Alvin and the Chipmonks" still playing at a first-run theater near me, now over 2 months into its run.

What's the word on 10,000 B.C.? I cannot not see an ad for it on TV for the past 4 weeks, it seems. Whatever it didn't pay in bankable actors/stars, it poured into the marketing budget, it would seem. I put out a guess of $32 million for next weekend for 10,000 B.C.

Are younger (under 40 years old or so) directors not getting name recognition anymore? It's funny to see ads with "Directed by the guy who also brought you Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow" or "Directed by the guy who directed The Bourne Identity and Mr. and Mrs. Smith", or worse "brought to you by 2 out of the 6 producers who brought you Scary Movie 4"

. The director-branding seems to be relegated to the most esteemed of the directors now much older, since they have a larger body of work, like Scorcese, Spielberg, of which the general populace would have a clue about those "names".

TerryRL · 03-02-2008, 06:55 PM

Currently, "10,000 B.C." is expected to open north of the $25 million mark.

As you said, older directors have a larger body of work, but its all about hits. From now on for example, ads for any film directed by Jason Reitman will have the lead-in "from the director who brought you 'Juno'".

Its not so much an older vs. younger issue, but a number of hits issue. Nothing pads a resume like a big hit movie for the ad people to hang their campaigns on.

DavidPla · 03-02-2008, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TerryRL

Currently, "10,000 B.C." is expected to open north of the $25 million mark.

As you said, older directors have a larger body of work, but its all about hits. From now on for example, ads for any film directed by Jason Reitman will have the lead-in "from the director who brought you 'Juno'".

Its not so much an older vs. younger issue, but a number of hits issue. Nothing pads a resume like a big hit movie for the ad people to hang their campaigns on.

For sure.. I remember advertisements for "Raiders of the Lost Ark" billing it as from the Creator of Star Wars and the Director of Jaws. I don't even think Steven Spielberg got the NAME status as just "From Steven Spielberg" until AFTER "E.T." became the phenomenon that it was.

TerryRL · 03-03-2008, 12:53 AM

You're right. The Berg became the industry's biggest "name" director after E.T. dominated the summer of '82. It also didn't hurt that "Raiders of the Lost Ark" was the biggest hit movie the previous year.

Currently, there are only a handful of directors that have marquee names on par (or bigger than in some cases) with Hollywood's top tier actors and actresses. After all these years, Spielberg remains the biggest "name" director in the industry. 15 of the 23 films he's helmed during the last 33 years have been big hits (with some being widely considered to be masterpieces). Indy IV will probably end up being #16.

The list gets even longer when considering the films has produced. As of now, the #2 guy on the list is Peter Jackson.

Malcolm R · 03-03-2008, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TerryRL

The list gets even longer when considering the films has produced. As of now, the #2 guy on the list is Peter Jackson.

I would have expected a few others, such as Quentin Tarantino or Tim Burton, to rank higher than PJ (based on name-recognitiion, not necessarily box office).

TerryRL · 03-03-2008, 06:38 PM

In most cases, Tinseltown is very much a "what have you done for me lately" kind of place. Jackson is coming off the LOTR trilogy and the "King Kong" remake (didn't do as well as expected but still a major hit).

Both Tim Burton and Quentin Tarantino suffered box office missteps with their last outings. In the big scheme of things, Robert Zemeckis and James Cameron (despite not doing a film for over 10 years) both rank higher on the "name" list than either Burton or Tarantino.

Chuck Mayer · 03-03-2008, 07:07 PM

I think M. Night still has name recognition (he did a lot of effective self-promotion right after Signs). I think Cameron is still a major name for Titanic, Aliens, and the Terminator films. He gets the "Jim Cameron" treatment, or will next year, though I'm sure they'll throw out Aliens and Titanic as well, to make sure the cheap seats get it.

Shawn_KE · 03-03-2008, 08:04 PM

Sweeney Todd was considered a misstep? 142 million worldwide seems pretty good for a violent singing movie.