Oscar Watch 2006

Adam_S · 08-02-2006, 06:28 PM

Here we go again, August is upon us and according to early buzz, the first big oscar contender, World Trade Center, releases this weekend. Dave Poland has also posted the first Gurus of Gold poll of what critics/oscar watchers feel are the top contenders:

August releases
September releases
October releases
November releases
December releases

Considering what the Academy likes: Right now I'm guessing World Wars, Gangsters, Personal Redemption of the Super Wealthy, and Everyone's Favorite Star in a Big, Serious but Heart-warming Drama.

Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German
The Departed
A Good Year
Pursuit of Happyness

wildcards
Nativity Story (likely to be the box office winner of the November/December frame with 275+ million)
Trade (just found out it was pushed to 2007)
Red Sun Black Sand (also 07 now?)

likely best dir non matchups:
Oliver Stone - World Trade Center
Darren Aronofsky - The Fountain

Chuck Mayer · 08-02-2006, 06:36 PM

I can't imagine WTC getting the nod over United 93. That's the only film I've seen (and it's pre-"season", I know) so far this year with real awards potential.

Adam_S · 08-02-2006, 06:43 PM

WTC is a later season release has a big oscar winning director and lead attached and supposedly has brought many critics to tears. I'm still not certain I'll see either movie, that was a rough day I don't feel like reliving.

Quentin · 08-02-2006, 06:49 PM

Red Sun, Black Sand won't be out until next year...so no competition there.

I don't think WTC will get anything.

A Good Year is a good guess. As is The Departed, Good German and Flags. I don't know about Pursuit...though, they will make a push.

What about The Good Shephard? Word on The Fountain is also huge. Home of the Brave will be topical. And, Dreamgirls is a big release. And, I expect Hollywoodland to be the push from Focus. Also, do we know what Babel will be available for? It is VERY good. And, of course, All the Kings Men. And, don't discount Running With Scissors.

Wouldn't it be crazy if we got Scorsese vs. Eastwood again? However, the pulling of The Departed from Toronto does not bode well.

I'll start a 5 nom list:

Flags of our Fathers
The Departed
All the Kings Men
Babel
A Good Year

I'd love The Fountain to get in there somehow...

Nathan V · 08-03-2006, 03:39 PM

Critics seem to like WTC a a bit more than I did. I saw a rough cut in June (with Stone in attendance, no less) and did not feel it was BP worthy, but it is certainly a very solid film. I'm glad of the positive reception- if anybody needed a comeback, it's Stone.

Looking over the talent for Home of the Brave, I somehow don't feel it will be nomiated

FYI, Good German is black and white.

**HTF Ads**

Jose Martinez · 08-03-2006, 11:32 PM

United 93, A Prairie Home Companion, Akeelah and The Bee are worthy contendors even though they were released early in the year.

Magnus T · 08-04-2006, 01:56 AM

Anyone think V for Vendetta will get any nods?

norrisMc · 08-04-2006, 07:32 AM

I have a sneaky feeling "HOLLYWOODLAND" may be there at the end.

Good cast... Diane Lane, Adrien Brody, Bob Hoskins and an Affleck comeback.

It's a dramatic biography film.

and... it's Focus Features too.

Oh... and it's supposed to be very, very good.

Adam_S · 08-04-2006, 01:04 PM

It should be up for at least Portman's performance, I doubt it will compete for any. It might make the sound categories which will be larger (five noms each) and more competitive this year.

Lady in the Water could pull a surprise score nomination again, Howard's work is excellent.

TheBat · 08-04-2006, 02:32 PM

portman was nominated for the movie closer in a supporting role.. I would hope she would get nominated again for her role in v for vendetta.

I think that united 93 has a very good chance of getting nominated. like crash from last year.. was released and did well.
not an easy movie to watch I might add.
it has the most intense ending that I have seen in a long time for a movie.

Jacob