Oscar Watch 2006 - Page 6

Adam_S · 10-21-2006, 03:23 AM

I think it's an open horserace, Dreamgirls is being shilled harder and more universally than Brokeback Mountain was, it could very well backfire in the exact same manner. It could implode like countless other sure bets, it could fail to connect with audiences, it could be oversold.

In a more fun vein; consider these mock mad-libs jaded reviews for oscar frontrunners:

_______ is too _______ (which critics hate) so the academy won't like it

_______ is good but dry, the film never is held back from greatness because ___ ___________, therefore the academy won't like it because they over-determine the 'experience' just like me.

________ is too convoluted (I want to be spoonfed, but only by a confusing auteur, preferably foreign or independent), and since I can't understand ________, the academy can't understand it.

________ is too smart, everyone knows the academy is dumb, they can't appreciate ___________ like I can. (the Jonathan Franzen review)

_________ is too sappy, and because I'm an emotional rock, the academy will not respond to ________ either.

________ is too entertaining and ________, everyone knows 'we' only allow 'important' films in the oscar race, the academy doesn't like entertaining anymore.

________ is too actor centric, the academy won't vote it a best picture nomination.

_______ is too stylish in __________, therefore its irrelevant.

_________ is too Indy, the academy hates indy, only critics can appreciate how _______ and indy (and therefore awesome) it is.

__________ is not gay enough, these movies need to be more _______ for the academy to embrace them.

__________ stars ________, who I think is a bad act____ because they are 1) successful, 2) popular, both are horrible, horrible (horrible) things for an act_____ to be because it discredits the real 'craft'.

______ is a glorified _______ channel movie. I despised it. ____________ is a much better movie with _____ ______ _________.

and for all the above and others:

__________ is too ________, but it's being pushed by the studio so give up already, I know more than you AND the academy, but they're irrelevant anyway because they never choose my favorite, wah!

Louis Letizia · 10-21-2006, 01:09 PM

Best picture: THE DEPARTED,FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, THE QUEEN, UNITED 93

Best Director: Pedro Almodover VOLVER, Clint Eastwood FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, Paul Greengrass UNITED 93, Martin Scorcese THE DEPARTED, Imaritu BABEL

Best Actor: George Clooney THE GOOD GERMAN, Peter O'Toole VENUS, Brad Pitt BABEL, Michel Sheen THE QUEEN, Forest Whitaker THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

Best Actress: Annette Benning RUNNING WITH SCISSORS, Penelope Cruz VOLVER,Helen Mirren THE QUEEN, Meryl Streep DEVIL WEARS PRADA, Kate Winslett LITTLE CHILDREN

Best Supp Actor: Adam Beach FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, Jackie Earl Haley LITTLE CHILDREN, Jack Nicholson THE DEPARTED, Stanley Tucci DEVIL WEARS PRADA, Mark Wahlberg THE DEPARTED

Best Supp Actress:Maria Bello WORLD TRADE CENTER, Shorah AgsdalouTHE NATIVITY STORY, Jill Clayburgh RUNNING WITH SCISSORS, Cate Blanchett BABEL, Toni Collette LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE

Best Orig Screenplay: FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, THE QUEEN, UNITED 93, VOLVER

Best Adapted Screenplay:BABEL, THE DEPARTED, DEVIL WEARS PRADA, LITTLE CHILDREN, FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS

Best Animated: CARS, MONSTER HOUSE, A SCANNER DARKLY, CHARLOTTES WEB, ARTHUR AND THE INVISIBLES

Best Art Direction: DREAMGIRLS, THE GOOD GERMAN, FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, MARIE ANTOINETTE, WORLD TRADE CENTER

Best Cinematography: BABEL, FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, THE GOOD GERMAN, THE DEPARTED, UNITED 93

Best Costume Design: BOBBY, DREAMGIRLS, DEVIL WEARS PRADA, MARIE ANTOINETTE, PERFUME

Best Film Editing: BABEL, THE DEPARTED, FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, UNITED 93, WORLD TRADE CENTER

Best Sound:THE DEPARTED, DREAMGIRLS, FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, UNITED 93, WORLD TRADE CENTER

Best Sound Editing:CARS, UNITED 93, WORLD TRADE CENTER

Best O Score: FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, DREAMGIRLS, BLOOD DIAMOND, APOCALYPTO, WORLD TRADE CENTER

Best Makeup:THE QUEEN, MARIE ANTOINETTE, WORLD TRADE CENTER

Best Visual Effects:ERAGON, CHARLOTTES WEB, PANS LABYRINTH

Jace_A · 10-21-2006, 05:57 PM

I think you can definitely cross Bening off the list for Best Actress. Running With Scissors is being eviscerated by the critics, and few are complementing Annette's performance.

Adam_S · 11-16-2006, 01:31 PM

I found there's actually a site called oscar watch, which is where I've done a lot of predictions postings, rather than cluttering up this thread with weekly changing thoughts as I preview movies and catch other oscar contenders in current release. I'd say the Good German is out except for cinematography (it's so breathtakingly excellent even the guild-blinded DPs will have to recognize it), Cate Blanchett and other tech nods. You can forget about George Clooney getting any award or nomination from anyone for the role, or Tobey Maguire for that matter.

However last night Dreamgirls premiered to the Academy and press, and it went over huge. Poland wrote the best thing he's written in years about the film:

Dreamgirls review

He's calling 16 realistic nomination possibilities (a record). Poland says Paramount is probably going to move Jennifer Hudson to lead actress and move Beyonce to supporting, and apparently the movie delivered on all other levels, and three original songs will be eligable.

Also this week, WB announced in Variety that Letters from Iwo Jima (aka Red Sun Black Sand) is getting an oscar qualifying run in LA/NY starting Dec. 20th. It will start screening next week for awards groups and critics. With Flags of our Fathers not lighting up any screens and generating no buzz from audiences, expect any major awards (such as Actor, for Ken Watanabe), Director or screenplay to go to LfIJ exclusively--especially since Paramount, the studio behind FoOF is going to focus all their attention on World Trade Center and Dreamgirls. WB, with Blood Diamond and Good German failing to generate major category buzz, is going to push Departed and Letters from Iwo Jima the most. There will be some talk that the academy will not nominate LfIJ for BP because they're afraid of subtitled movies. That's not true, it's just subtitled movies rarely generate the event and must-see buzz that is needed to earn a best picture nomination from the 6000 member academy. A lot of people don't bother with subtitled films outside of popular anomalies like Il Postino, Life is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger--it's the same reason small intimate films rarely earned a nomination before the age of Weinstein. Historically, the much smaller director's branch--300 members--is much more likely to nominate foreign directors working in their native language, look at all the nominations Fellini, Bergman and Kurosawa racked up, or, for instance City of God and Talk to Her. The problem was none of those films became a must see event. Letters from Iwo Jima is already at an advantage, because Clint Eastwood directing it probably guarantees three or four times the number of academy will watch the film than if it had been made by a Japanese director. Still a directing nomination for Clint Eastwood's effort at two films on the same subject matter from different perspectives is the most likely nomination the film will earn. The film can go either way depending on how it's received. Internal buzz from WB says that the film elicits a much stronger response than Flags of Our Fathers did.

There has been some online talk of United 93 and Paul Greengrass being in contention, Universal is giving it a decent push, but the film is an extremely long shot. Longer than Crash, especially with the focus paramount is giving to World Trade Center. On the other hand Little Miss Sunshine may be this year's Crash-esque success and earn a best picture nomination.

Pursuit of Happyness is generating a lot of buzz for Will Smith but the movie is quietly building a strong base to slip into a BP nomination, and with other major films like Babel and Little Children polarizing audiences and Good German being unexciting, Pursuit of Happyness is likely to be the film that can generate enough consensus to take home a nomination, it's a tough film, not an easy uplifter. in my opinion, this is the Good Night and Good Luck nomination of 2006, Smith will work every bit as hard as Clooney did for his film, and that's going to make a huge difference.

Notes on a Scandal is a film that has been successfully screening and may be a threat for the consensus BP nomination PoH is gunning for. At this point Judy Dench and Cate Blanchett look VERY strong for lead and supporting actress nominations. I'm curious what the reaction will be to the Philip Glass score.

Painted Veil is the sort of film that Miramax could have taken to top five nominations (BP, BD, Actor, Actress, Screenplay) but it may not generate enough buzz to earn those. But Edward Norton may very likely earn his long overdue lead actor nomination for the film with Clooney falling out of the race. Naomi Watts is also in strong contention for best actress.

Nativity Story quietly started screening last week. No raves have come out, but neither have any slams been written. As the advertising ramps up over thanksgiving buzz may build for Keisha Castle Hughes but the movie will have to go over 150 and probably 200 for her to take a best actress nomination for carrying the success on her young shoulders. This is a very unlikely nomination, but the strongest possibility for the film.

Apocalypto should take nods for score, sound, sound editing and cinematography. but the film is very unlikely to earn anything else.

Deniro's Good Shepherd will be the last film of the season to screen for critics and awards groups. buzz is still quiet, almost deadly quiet, on the film. Damon is an outside possibility for the film.

Full updated predictions to come.

Chuck Mayer · 11-16-2006, 02:03 PM

Poland's known to let his enthusiasm get in the way of his judgement. I've heard him call numerous people (in many years) mortal locks to win the Oscar, and he's almost always wrong. He clearly loves the film, and it will be sold marvelously and probably be the front-runner...but weird things happen on the long road to the Oscar.

That said, I expect Dreamgirls will lead the pack in noms and wins...but not for all-time noms/wins.

Not a big surprise regarding Letters...Flags is done at this point.

Adam_S · 11-16-2006, 02:31 PM

Other raves for Dreamgirls:
Tom ONeil, The Envelope
Roger Friedman, FoxNews

My Current Predictions revised 12/11:

BEST PICTURE
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

alt: United 93

BEST DIRECTOR
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls
Alejandro Innaritu - Babel
Clint Eastwood - Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Martin Scorsese - The Departed

alt. Alfonso Cuaron - Children of Men, Paul Greengrass - United 93

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - Pursuit of Happyness
Ken Watanabe - Letters from Iwo Jima
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

alt. Edward Norton - The Painted Veil

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judy Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Beyonce Knowles - Dreamgirls
Hellen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada

alt. Cate Blanchett - the Good German, Naomi Watts - The Painted Veil

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson - The Departed
Brad Pitt - Babel
Michael Sheen - The Queen

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adrianna Barazza - Babel
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Jenifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Angelina Jolie - The Good Shepherd

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel - Guillermo Arriaga and Alexandra Gonzalez Innaritu
Letters from Iwo Jima - Iris Yamashita
Little Miss Sunshine - Michael Arndt
Pursuit of Happyness - Steve Conrad
The Queen - Peter Morgan

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Departed - William Monahan
Dreamgirls - Bill Condon
Devil Wear Prada - Ailene Brosch McKenna
Little Children - Todd Field, Tom Perroto
Notes on a Scandal - Patrick Marber, Zoe Heller

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars
Flushed Away
Happy Feet
Monster House
Over the Hedge

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Jesus Camp
Shut up and Sing
Trials of Darryl Hunt

--------------
ART DIRECTION
Dreamgirls - John Mhyre, Tomas Voth, Nancy Haigh
The Good German - Philip Messina, Doug Meerdink, Kristen Messina
Marie Antoinette - KK Barrett, Anne Seibel, Veronique Melery
Pan's Labyrinth - Eugenio Caballero
The Queen - Alan McDonald, Matthew Broderick, Tina Jones

CINEMATOGRAPHYChildren of Men - Emmanuel Lubeski
The Departed - Michael Ballhaus
Dreamgirls - Tobias Schliesser
The Good Shepherd - Robert Richardson
Letters from Iwo Jima - Tom Stern

COSTUME DESIGN
Devil Wears Prada - Patricia Field
Dreamgirls - Sharon Davis
Good German - Louise Frogley
Marie Antoinette - Milena Canonero
The Queen - Consolata Boyle

EDITING
Babel - Stephen Mirrione
Letters from Iwo Jima - Joel Cox
Perfume: Story of a Murderer - Alexander Berner
Departed - Thelma Schoonmaker
Dreamgirls - Virginia Katz

The Good Shepherd, Apocalypto

MAKEUP
Dreamgirls - Tym Shutchai Buacharern, Camille Friend
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Ve Neill, Joel Harlow, Martin Samuel, Lucia Mace
The Queen - Danielle Phillips

alt: Apocalypto

ORIGINAL SCORE
Apocalypto - James Horner
Charlotte's Web - Danny Elfman
The Good German - Thomas Newman
Notes on a Scandal - Philip Glass
The Queen - Alexandre Desplat

alt: Blood Diamond - James Newton Howard, Painted Veil - Alexandre Desplat, Babel - Gustavo Santalallo

ORIGINAL SONG
"Listen" - Dreamgirls
"A Father's Way" - Pursuit of Happyness
"I Need to Wake Up" - An Inconvenient Truth
"Love You I Do" - Dreamgirls
"Ordinary Miracle" - Charlotte's Web

alt: happy feet, Casino Royale, Cars, Dreamgirls, Over the Hedge, Curse of the Golden Flower

SOUND MIXING
Apocalypto - Kevin O'Connell, Gregg Orloff, Fernando Camara
Cars - Tom Myers, Gary Summers,
The Departed - Danny Micheal, Tom Fleishman
Dreamgirls - Willie Burton, Michael Minkier, Bob Beemer
Pirates of the Caribbean - Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes, Lee Orloff

SOUND EDITING
Cars - Tom Myers, Michael Silver,
Dreamgirls - Richard Yawn
Letters from Iwo Jima - Jason Jennings, Jason King
Pirates of the Caribbean - Christopher Boyes, George Walters II
Superman Returns - Christopher Aud, Craig Berkey, Erik Aadahl

VISUAL EFFECTS
Charlotte's Web - bunches of folks, can figure it out without a FYC ad
Pirates of the Caribbean - John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson, Alan Hall
Superman Returns - big giant fuckload of people, why haven't the FYCs mentioned this?

ZacharyTait · 12-03-2006, 10:45 PM

David Poland and a Oscar Mystery Item

Quentin · 12-06-2006, 05:06 PM

Not that NBR is a big deal...but, it IS an award...

And, best picture goes to "Letters from Iwo Jima". It seems we have a wildcard here...

Adam_S · 12-06-2006, 06:38 PM

NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW FULL WINNERS LIST:

Best Film
Letters From Iwo Jima
Runners Up (in alpha order)
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Flags Of Our Fathers
The History Boys
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil

Best Documentary
An Inconvenient Truth
Runners up
51 Birch Street,
Iraq In Fragments,
Shut Up & Sing,
Wordplay

Best Foreign Film
Volver
Runners Up
Curse Of The Golden Flower,
Days Of Glory,
Pan's Labyrinth,
Water

Top Independent Films (in alpha order)
Akeelah And The Bee,
Bobby,
Catch A Fire,
Copying Beethoven,
A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints,
Half Nelson,
The Illusionist,
Lonesome Jim,
Sherrybaby,
10 Items Or Less,
Thank You For Smoking

Best Director
Martin Scorsese - The Departed

Best Actor
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

Best Actress
Helen Mirren - The Queen

Best Supporting Actor
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond

Best Supporting Actress
Catherine O'Hara - For Your Consideration

Best Animated Feature
Cars

Best Ensemble Cast
The Departed

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress (2)
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

Best Directorial Debut
Jason Reitman - Thank You for Smoking

Best Original Screenplay
Zach Helm - Stranger Than Fiction

Best Adapted Screenplay
Ron Nyswaner - The Painted Veil

Career Achievement Award
Eli Wallach

Billy Wilder Award For Excellence In Directing
Jonathan Demme

William K. Everson Award For Film History
Donald Krim

Career Achievement in Producing
Irwin Winkler

The Bvlgari Award for NBR Freedom of Expression
Water and World Trade Center