Oscar Watch 2006 - Page 4

Adam_S · 10-08-2006, 10:50 PM

I saw the Queen myself, and yeah, it'll be interesting to see what other four actresses are nominated to lose, because that's as big a lock as any I've ever seen, up there with Julia Roberts in Erin Brockavich.

I also think it's the film to beat for Best Picture. It's superb in every way, never a misstep, very entertaining and wonderful filmmaking with an academy appeal as well. If harvey were still running Miramax he'd have absolutely no trouble at all shepherding this to the big win. As it is, it shall be an interesting competition this year.

Despite how pretty Marie Antoinette looks, I'd also say this film has costume design and makeup all but locked up as well. That initial pan pretty much cinches it, imo.

It should be a major nominee in Production design, but Henry Bumstead will be winning for Flags of our Fathers because he died this year.

I'd nominate it for cinematography as well. It's understated but simply superb to watch, in the manner that Capote was last year. But I don't know that it'll be competitive this year in that category.

Adam

Robert Anthony · 10-08-2006, 11:06 PM

Quote:

up there with Julia Roberts in Erin Brockavich.

Ugh, I hate that her nomination was pre-ordained to be a win. Not that her work wasn't good, but it meant there was no way Ellen Burstyn could have won for what is probably her best work EVER on film in "Requiem for a Dream." Still my most hated Oscar Snub ever.

Speaking of Aronofsky, there's a good chance Weisz gets nominated for best Actress in "The Fountain" if early buzz is any indication.

Nicholson going for Best Actor is going to kneecap his chances. He could have a real shot at Best Supporting, and an instant nomination, but Best Actor is stretching it. Shades of Daniel Day Lewis in "Gangs of New York." Woulda won if he was up for Best Supporting. I think Scorsese is a lock for Best Director nom, but the Departed might not make Best Picture. I don't think that'll happen because it's violent (Pulp Fiction says hi) but because it simply isn't as WEIGHTY as the other locks for Best Pic.

I still think United 93 is gonna get a shot at Best Picture. It might not get the nom, but Greengrass should probably end up snagging a nom for Best Director regardless of it's early release or not. It might pull a "Silence of the Lambs" in that regard. I know this prediction is odd since I essentially said the same thing above, and I believe it's really rare that you have 2 movies nominated for best Director with no accompanying Best Picture nom, but I could see it happening this year.

Best Picture Nominations (maybe?)
United 93
The Fountain
The Queen
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German

Dark horse picks: Babel, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, Bobby

Best Director Nominations (maybe?)
Martin Scorsese
Darren Aronofsky
Clint Eastwood
Stephen Frears
Paul Greengrass

Dark horse picks: Alejandro Innaritu, Stephen Soderbergh, Bill Condon, Guillermo Del Toro

Chuck Mayer · 10-09-2006, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Anthony

Ugh, I hate that her nomination was pre-ordained to be a win. Not that her work wasn't good, but it meant there was no way Ellen Burstyn could have won for what is probably her best work EVER on film in "Requiem for a Dream." Still my most hated Oscar Snub ever.

Nicholson going for Best Actor is going to kneecap his chances. He could have a real shot at Best Supporting, and an instant nomination, but Best Actor is stretching it. Shades of Daniel Day Lewis in "Gangs of New York." Woulda won if he was up for Best Supporting.

I'd pay money for you to be right (assuming the films live up to expectations). But I don't see it. The Fountain will only get technical noms

I agree completely about Ellen Burstyn. One of the greatest performances I've ever seen. So far beyond what Julia did in EB, it's not even funny.

DDL still shoulda won

But Nicholson was definitely supporting in The Departed. DiCaprio or Damon should get Lead, and I think DiCaprio gave the best performance of his adult career.

Holadem · 10-09-2006, 11:51 AM

There is of course much left to see this year, but I am predicting that The Departed is WALKING AWAY with the Editing award this year.

--
H

Adam_S · 10-09-2006, 12:10 PM

There's still Babel, which is an equally complex film to edit, and buzz suggests is every bit as good as The Departed.

Poland ripped Eastwood a new one in his two part review of Flags of our Fathers:

http://www.thehotbutton.com/today/ho...61009_mon.html

Poland's biggest criticism is that there is no villain in the film, not even the Japanese.

Roeper and ____ gave it two thumbs up

Kris Tapley at in contention gave it three of four stars.

http://www.incontention.com/2006/10/...hers.html#more

Robert Anthony · 10-09-2006, 01:21 PM

Quote:

I'd pay money for you to be right (assuming the films live up to expectations). But I don't see it. The Fountain will only get technical noms

Been hearing this a lot. Sounds like the pre-buzz before everyone finally SAW "Fellowship of the Ring."

You get the parallel I'm trying to make, right?

You put enough heart into something, the genre almost becomes irrelevant. If the right people position "The Fountain" as a LOVE STORY first and foremost, I think it'll work.

Then again, it didn't quite work for "Eternal Sunshine" so I could be off my ass, but hey

Quentin · 10-09-2006, 01:44 PM

Stephen Frears is always a bridesmaid, never a bride. I think THE QUEEN continues that tradition. Not quite what the voters are looking for.

Noms, maybe the Actress statue. No more.

TerryRL · 10-09-2006, 02:20 PM

My nomination predictions...

BEST PICTURE
-"The Departed"
-"Dreamgirls"
-"Flags of Our Fathers"
-"The Good German"
-"Little Children"

BEST DIRECTOR
-Bill Condon "Dreamgirls"
-Todd Field "Little Children"
-Alejandro Innaritu "Babel"
-Martin Scorsese "The Departed"
-Steven Soderbergh "The Good German"

BEST ACTOR
-Matt Damon "The Good Shepard"
-Leonardo DiCaprio "The Departed"
-Peter O'Toole "Venus"
-Will Smith "The Pursuit of Happyness"
-Forrest Whitaker "The Last King of Scotland"

BEST ACTRESS
-Cate Blanchett "The Good German"
-Penelope Cruz "Volver"
-Sienna Miller "Factory Girl"
-Helen Mirren "The Queen"
-Kate Winslet "Little Children"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
-Adam Beach "Flags of Our Fathers"
-Tobey Maguire "The Good German"
-Eddie Murphy "Dreamgirls"
-Jack Nicholson "The Departed"
-Michael Sheen "The Queen"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
-Maria Bello "World Trade Center"
-Jennifer Hudson "Dreamgirls"
-Angelina Jolie "The Good Shepard"
-Carmen Maura "Volver"
-Phyllis Somerville "Little Children"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
-"Cars"
-"Flushed Away"
-"Happy Feet"

BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED)
-"The Departed"
-"Dreamgirls"
-"The Good German"
-"Little Children"
-"Thank You for Smoking"

BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL)
-"Babel"
-"The Good Shepard"
-"Little Miss Sunshine"
-"The Queen"
-"Volver"

I've held to the opinion that the biggest thing hurting 'Flags' is the fact that Eastwood nabbed Oscars for "Million Dollar Baby" just two years ago. Still, the early buzz I've been hearing on 'Flags' is "good, but not great". I think this will be Scorsese's year to win (at least) the Best Director trophy. Best Picture could be wide open, but I think "The Departed" has a good shot at the gold. I could be way off, but I believe the eighth time will be the charm for Scorsese. Five of his previous seven nods were for Best Director with the other two coming in the Adapted Screenplay category (for "Goodfellas" and "The Age of Innocence").

Quentin · 10-09-2006, 04:19 PM

Man, Terry. That is a really good looking list. I can't wait to see how close you come.

TerryRL · 10-09-2006, 05:23 PM

Thanks.

This year the Oscars could be the night when guys that are "due" finally win. If Scorsese and O'Toole do capture nods as expected, it would be nine total nods (he would be up for both Best Picture and Best Director for "The Departed") for Scorsese and eight for O'Toole. Both guys are considered to be long overdue for the golden guy (O'Toole did win an Honorary Oscar a couple of years back).

Helen Mirren, who is considered the odds-on-favorite to win the Best Actress Oscar, is looking at her third nod. Kate Winslet could be looking at another year of being the bridesmaid as "Little Children" nets her the fifth nomination of her career. Five nods and she just turned 31, she'll win eventually, just probably not this year.

Forrest Whitaker looks to be O'Toole's toughest competition for the Best Actor prize, but he could end up in the Supporting Actor category since James McAvoy is really the main character in "The Last King of Scotland". If Whitaker falls to the Supporting Actor slot, I think he wins in a walk. Otherwise, the battle may end up being between Tobey Maguire and Eddie Murphy.

I think Best Supporting Actress will be the toughest one to call. Phyills Somerville is getting rave notices for her role in "Little Children", but so did Maria Bello (who many believe should've nabbed a nod for last year's "A History of Violence") for her work in "World Trade Center". A whole host of other actress I didn't list also have a decent shot at a nod. Again, this will be a tough category.

I still think the favorite going in will be "The Departed". After all, Marty is "due".

ZacharyTait · 10-09-2006, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adam_S

There's still Babel, which is an equally complex film to edit, and buzz suggests is every bit as good as The Departed.

Poland ripped Eastwood a new one in his two part review of Flags of our Fathers:

http://www.thehotbutton.com/today/ho...61009_mon.html

Poland's biggest criticism is that there is no villain in the film, not even the Japanese.

Roeper and ____ gave it two thumbs up

Kris Tapley at in contention gave it three of four stars.

http://www.incontention.com/2006/10/...hers.html#more

Part 2 of David Poland's review of Flags of our Fathers.

Jeff Well reviews Flags of our Fathers at Hollywood Elsewhere

The guest critic on E&R was Zorianna Kit.