Oscar Watch 2006 - Page 3

Adam_S · 09-10-2006, 04:36 AM

It's going to be a vicious fight for best picture nominations this year. The NYT has their first oscar, I mean fall movies, preview up:

Dreamgirls article
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/10/mo...=moviesspecial

History Boys article
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/10/mo...al/10gold.html

Rest of the coverage
http://www.nytimes.com/indexes/2006/...ial/index.html

Craig S · 09-10-2006, 08:59 AM

Blogging from Toronto, Poland calls All The King's Men a disappointment, and pushes Sasha Baren Cohen (Borat) for a Best Actor nod.

[Stunned Silence]
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No, I'm not kidding:

Quote:

I got to argue later in the evening about Sasha Baron Cohen’s Oscar chances in the Best Actor category and I tell you, his work here is not just some comic role that The Academy tends to overlook. This is, in its raw way, Chaplin or Tati. Cohen brings sympathy, empathy, innocence, and unbridled passion to the role amongst the loads of utter insanity. Actors vote for actors. And unlike any other comic role in memory, this is a real one-man show. No actor will take control of you in a movie this year any more profoundly than Cohen. And to overlook him in the name of expectation would be pathetic.

The FooF trailer looks great. Eastwood seems to have ascended to a higher plane in the past few years.

We seem to be inexorably headed to a Dreamgirls vs FooF showdown for BP.

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Hellen Mirren is gathering lots of praise for her performance in the Queen, and looks to be a lock for actress and a strong contender for a best picture nomination.

The Queen may be following a similar trajectory to Capote - initial notice due to a stellar lead performance, followed by acclaim for the film itself. I think it's definitely a BP contender now.

Buzz continues to build around Peter O'Toole's turn in Venus. Check out this notice from Wells. O'Toole seems to be a lock for his 8th nomination at this point, and in a year which some are calling weak for male leads, we could be looking at a John Wayne/True Grit - Henry Fonda/On Golden Pond situation.

Craig S · 09-10-2006, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Looks like Ben Affleck won the best actor award at the Venice Film Festival. Oscar buzz?

I saw Hollywoodland yesterday. Affleck was superb. I honestly hadn't thought of him in Oscar terms, but as I said before this is shaping up to be a weak year for Best Actor, so there may be room for him. The Venice award can only help his chances.

Adam_S · 09-10-2006, 02:14 PM

Poland always has at least one truly wacky early call. I think Cohen will get a Golden Globe nomination, but the field is strong enough that I doubt he'll get the oscar nom. There's a lot of big names make good and old names show their greatness in the field this year, and as a rule those generally do best at oscars.

the actor categories are still HIGHLY competitive this year

for instance
big names make good:
Will Smith - Pursuit of Happiness
George Clooney - The Good German
Brad Pitt - Babel
Ben Affleck - Hollywoodland
Matt Damon - the Departed, The Good Shepherd
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed, the Blood Diamond
Will Ferrell - Stranger than Fiction (a more likely possibility than Cohen)
Russell Crowe - A Good Year
Matthew McConaughy - We Are MArshall
Hugh Jackman - the Fountain
Ken Watanabe - Letters from Iwo Jima
Jude Law - Breaking and Entering
Edward Norton - the Painted Veil

Old Names demonstrate their greatness again:
Peter OToole - Venus (too small a movie though??)
Richard Griffiths - The History Boys
Morgan Freeman - 10 Items or Less
Forrest Whitaker - Last King of Scotland

In supporting actor we instead have
new faces or new breakthroughs:
Jackie Earl Haley - Little Children
Adam Beach - Flags of Our fathers
Michael Sheen - The Queen
Samuel Barnett, Dominic Cooper - the History Boys

and old actors and big names make good:
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Brian Cox - Running with Scissors
Joe Pesci - The Good Shepherd
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jack Nicholson - The Departed
Robert Deniro - the Good Shepherd
James Cromwell - the Queen
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

Adam_S · 09-10-2006, 02:37 PM

Might as well do it for actresses as well.

Best Actress: not very competitive, we already have three locks, and maybe four:

the locks
Meryl Streep - the Devil Wears Prada
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Kate Winslet - Little Children

the maybes
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Beyonce - Dreamgirls

In contention
Naomi Watts - the Painted Veil
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandel, Babel, The Good German (three movies... canceling self out?)
Robin Wright Penn - Breaking and Entering
Keisha Castle Hughes - the Nativity Story
Nicole Kidman - Fur
Annette Bening - Running with Scissors (could go supporting)
Rachel Weisz - the Fountain
Julianne Moore - Children of Men
Ivana banquero - Pan's Labyrinth (she's the lead but will probably be thrown in supporting like Haley Joel Osment from Sixth Sense)

Supporting: still highly competitive

New faces and new breakthroughs
Ivana Banquero - Pan's Labyrinth
Anne Hathaway - Devil Wears Prada (coattails)
Jenifer Hudson - Dreamgirls (she's got a solo number)
Abigail Breslan - Little Miss Sunshine
rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Charlotte Gainsburg - the Science of Sleep
maggie Gyllenhaal - World Trade Center

And old names and big names make good:
Julie Walters - Driving Lessons
Shohreh Aghladashloo - Nativity Story
Ashley Judd - Come Early Morning
Jill Claybourgh - Running with Scissors
Dame Judy Dench - Notes on a Scandel
Jennifer Connelly - Little Children
Scarlett Johannson - The Black Dahlia
Catherine O'Hara - for your consideration
emma thompson - stranger than fiction
Carmen Maura - Volver
Angelina Jolie - the Good Shepherd

Adam_S · 09-11-2006, 02:18 AM

The LATimes Sunday coverage of the fall season. More thorough than the NYT's.

Fall movie season

Standout articles on:
Science of Sleep
Leonardo DiCaprio (Departed, Blood Diamond)
Little Children
Babel
Flags of Our Fathers (prod. Designer Henry Bumstead)

norrisMc · 09-11-2006, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig S

I saw Hollywoodland yesterday. Affleck was superb. I honestly hadn't thought of him in Oscar terms, but as I said before this is shaping up to be a weak year for Best Actor, so there may be room for him. The Venice award can only help his chances.

I thought Diane Lane was as good if not better than Affleck in "Hollywoodland". She should get a nomination depending on competition.

Craig S · 09-25-2006, 02:40 PM

I think we can all agree now the All The King's Men is dead in the Oscar race??

The Departed has been getting some pretty ecstatic reviews. The phrase "Scorsese's best since Goodfellas" is being uttered. Is it back in the Oscar race?

FooF has quietly started screenings. See this report by Wells. It appears firmly on course to multiple noms, including BP & BD. It's apparently still undecided whether the FooF companion piece Letters From Iwo Jima (I really wish they had kept the original title) will be released this year or early in 2007 for awards purposes.

Quentin · 09-25-2006, 03:26 PM

All the Kings Men is, indeed, dead.

I have seen The Departed. It IS very good...but, it is way too violent to get serious Oscar attention. It's just not breakthrough enough. It's Scorsese showing us he is a master at this genre.

Thi Them · 09-25-2006, 04:45 PM

How are the actors in The Departed?

~T

Craig S · 09-25-2006, 07:04 PM

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I have seen The Departed. It IS very good...but, it is way too violent to get serious Oscar attention.

I would point out that Taxi Driver, Raging Bull & Goodfellas all got BP noms. I can't imagine it's out of the question for The Departed to do the same. A win would be unlikely. But is it strong enough to put Scorsese himself in serious contention for BD??