2004 is 3/4ths over, and Oscar season starts in a few weeks. It's time to start the annual discussions.
There are a few things that set this year apart from most others:
-The Passion of the Christ.
The eighth highest grossing film of all time, if my memory serves me right, and highly regarded by many. The best religious movie in years. The question here is, how will the film figure into the academy awards? Awareness of the film is not a problem, despite the early release; people have been talking about it practically non-stop since the internet teaser came out over a year ago. I can definitely see some smaller nominations. Cinematography, Costumes, Effects(?), Makeup (btw, can someone quickly recap what the hell happened with 2002 makeup? I remember somethingabout bizarre guidelines and The Time Machine), and other non-major awards. If the year turns out to be weak, I can see a Best Actor, and maybe even a Director nom.
-Jude Law.
The man is everywhere. I can't remember a time with one man in so many films at once- and headlining most of them. I was at the Bourne Supremacy, and every trailer had Jude Law in it!!! Although he probably won't be nominated six times, expect, at the absolute very least, 1 or 2 noms, most likely from Alfie, Closer, and the Aviator (in which he has 1 scene, which has been talked baout ever since he was cast).
-Farenheit 9/11 and Michael Moore.
This is election year. Depending on what happens in November, Farenheit (sp?) could show up in major categories, but I highly doubt it.
People always say it's pointless to start discussing Oscar until October or November, but let's keep in mind that they are always films from earlier that show up in the race. It happens every year.
Anyway, here's the lineup-
September:
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow. Jude Law #1. This film will not flop- check Mr. Weinberg's 7-page thread for extended discussion on why. I think it will appeal to older markets, and perhaps even kids, Critics will definitely get into the 30's art-deco approach. I see an FX nom on the horizon...
Wimbledon. Expect nothing.
The Motorcycle Diaries. I think this'll be great, but don't expect any noms besides screenplay.
Vanity Fair. No idea what the story is on this one.
Other assorted stuff in September-
Mr. 3000
The Final Cut (robin williams thriller)
Head in the Clouds (Charlize, period piece with bad reviews)
The Forgotten
First Daughter
Silver City- Chris Cooper plays a version of George W. John Sayles directs. Getting average-good reviews. (shot on 16mm)
October:
Ray. 100% chance of an actor nomination. But, who the heck is Taylor Hackford?
Ladder 49. How good is a fireman movie going to do right now, I wonder?
Alfie. Jude Law #2. This is a remake, by a no-name director. I can see a good movie that doesn't live up to the original, which had Michael Caine, that could have award-worthy acting but will be overshadowed by Law's other perf's.
I Heart huckabees. Jude Law #3. A killer cast, with a very good writer/director. I don't know too much about this. perhaps someone else can eleborate.
Team America: World Police. I get the feeling this won't be getting many nominations. I also get the feeling it's going to be hilarious.
Friday Night Lights
Stage Beauty- billy crudup transvestite theatre movie. USA Today included in their short list of "notable" upcoming films.
Shark Tale. I want to talk about this for a minute. I think I figured out why Martin Scorsese's in this- because Joe Pesci won in 1990 for Goodfellas. You'll remember that he was also in Home Alone that year, a fun box-office hit. Scorsese might be going for the same approach- "I can direct the Aviator, but I can also be in hip, funny movies," that sort of thing. Or he might just to take his career in new directions, like being in an animated fish movie.
Shall We Dance
The Machinist (christian bale thriller)
Sideways- Alexander Payne's next, Paul Giamatti, outstanding advance reviews
Undertow- from David Gordon Green , the director of George Washington and All the Real Girls. Probably no nominations, but I am so in line for this.
Vera Drake- Mike Leigh's next. I have no idea what this is about.
The Grudge
Taxi
November:
Finding Neverland, from Miramax. Ebert, who saw it at Toronto, liked it a lot, likening it to a Beautiful Mind, and likening it to the old classics, in that it appeals to all age groups (film is classified PG).
The Incredibles- Pixar's next, from the dir. of the Iron Giant. Best Animated Film, here we come.
Surviving Christmas
Christmas with the Kranks- based on a John Grisham novel!
Bridget Jones 2
Alexander. 11-time nominee and 2-time best-director winner Oliver Stone is back. This is a huge contender, a lock for many of the majors in my opinion. The last of the sword and sandal epics, this is going to make Troy look even more like a made-for-TV movie. Cinematography by Rodrigo Prieto. A couple of side notes- Oliver is the sole writer. He also spent the past YEAR editing.
Millions- from Danny Boyle, director of Transpotting and 28 Days later. Amazingly, this film has no sex, drugs, or violence.
The Spongebob SquarePants movie. November's other big contender. Tom Kenny's performance is said to be superb. Acting, picture, and director nominations are very likely.
The Polar Express. Tom Hanks and Robert Zemeckis. 'Nuff said. However, besides playing himself, Hanks will also play Marlon Brando in a supoorting role. I'm not so sure about that.
Bad Education. From the great Pedro Almodovar, and starring Gael Garcia Bernal as a transvestite. Talk to Her got screenplay and director noms. It could happen again; the buzz is great. And is it me, or does this have the coolest title ever?
Birth-Nic Kidman. 'good performance in a mediocre film' is the word on the street.
After the Sunset
Beyond the Sea- a biopic on Bobby Darin (no, I don't know who he is either). Kevin Spacey's dream project, in which he co-wrote, directed and stars in. The trailer show potential. Kevin Spacey is in bad need of a hit.
National Treasure- the worst, most laughable trailer in years. I'm sorry.
Kinsey, by Bill Condon. The buzz calls for a Best actor nomination.
December:
Martin Scorsese's The Aviator. Aside from Alexander, this is really the only lock I see for the majors. DiCaprio WILL get nominated, as will Marty. If my Shark Tale theory is correct, he will win as well. The film is about Howard Hughes, early Hollywood, and aviation; it features everyone and their grandmother, from Willem Defoe to Gwen Stefani. Expect a slew of supporting noms. Also, this film, amazingly, is said to have no violence whatsoever; as of now, this is my prediction for the BP winner. (jude law #4)
The Woodsman (kevin bacon pedophile movie)
Lemony Snicket's A series of Unfortunate events. based on the popular kid's series. Paramount wants this to be the next Harry Potter. The trailer is fascinating- check it out. (jude law #5)
Ocean's Twelve- same cast and director. Expect strong BO.
An Unfinished Life, from Lasse Hallstrom, whose "Shipping News" vanished the week it came out. This film stars Jennifer Lopez and Robert Redford "as you've never seen him before," if the buzz is to be believed.
Fierce People
Blade 3
Meet the Fockers
Phantom of the Opera- directed by, of all the people, Joel Schumacher. Reviews will lead to techies.
Spanglish- Adam Sandler drama, except not directed by PTA.
Proof- Gwyneth, Hopkins, Jake Gyllenhall. By John Madden. It's about fear, uncertainty, death, and mathematics. Not sure how this will turn out.
Closer, by Mike Nichols. The trailer looks terrific, very wierd. This has potential written all over it. (jude law #6)
Synergy
The Life Aquatic by Wes Anderson. Criterion, please do this one! Screenplay, but probably not Actor, although Gene Hackman did get a golden globe for the Royal Tenenbaums.
A Very Long Engagment- the director and star of Amelie. A big-budget WW1 romance. This ALREADY has FYC ads out!!! (You know who's distributing this!
)
The Assassination of Richard Nixon- Sean Penn and Naomi Watts. Do I need to say more?
Hotel Rwanda- Don Cheadle saves the lives of 1200 opressed Tusis in the 1994 Rwandan genocide (this is the event discussed briefly in Collateral). Joaquin Pheonix and Nick Nolte costar. This opens Christmas Eve
.
UPDATE: This just won the majors at Toronto.
Let the discussion begin. What do people think about these titles? Please, feel free to supply more info than th ultra-brief synopses I provided. What do people think about stuff from the past 9 months? (eternal sunshine, hero, etc)
Regards,
Nathan
Maybe an admin can change the title to something more descriptive?
