Craig's Picks
Here we go with my picks. Some notes:
- My predicted winners are shown in red.
- My preferred winners are shown in italics.
- I attend an Oscar party every year. In categories with 5 nominees, we are required to choose 2 that won't win (we get 2 points for winners, 1 point for each non-winner we get correct). These are shown in
strikethrough text. - For the pool there we are required to predict every category, even the shorts & documentaries. These predictions are included here, and are based solely on the synopses provided on the official Oscar web site.
- Discounting the Documentary, Foreign Language & Short categories, I have seen all the major nominees except Being Julia, Maria Full Of Grace, Motorcycle Diaries, and Vera Drake.
- I have included a brief comment after each category, hopefully to explain my odder choices.
Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio -
The Aviator
Jamie Foxx - Ray
Clint Eastwood -
Million Dollar Baby
Just watched the Jamie Foxx interview with Barbara Walters, and saw the GG speech I hadn't seen before. Oh. OH. It may be last minute, but I'm jumping on the Foxx bandwagon.
Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Alan Alda - The Aviator
Jamie Foxx - Collateral
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
Thomas Haden Church - Sideways
Clive Owen -
Closer
A very tight race between Haden Church & Freeman, but I think Morgan gets his valedictory Oscar here.
Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Annette Bening -
Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Morena - Maria Full Of Grace
Imelda Staunton -
Vera Drake
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
Swank joins the multiple winners club.
Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett -
The Aviator
Laura Linney - Kinsey
Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Sophie Okenado - Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman -
Closer
Very interesting 3-way race here. I'm guessing the Academy, knowing Blanchett & Portman will be back in the future, gives this one to Madsen for what will likely be the performance of her lifetime.
Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
The Incredibles
Shrek 2
Shark Tale
Are you kidding me?? This one should be by acclamation.
Achievement In Art Direction
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Phantom Of The Opera
A Very Long Engagement
Five worthy nominees make this a very tough race to call, so I'll go with the nomination leader.
Achievement In Cinematography
The Aviator
House Of Flying Daggers
The Passion Of The Christ
The Phantom Of The Opera
A Very Long Engagement
Ditto.
Achievement In Costume Design
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Ray
Troy
Among these five,
Lemony Snicket really stands out as the most original entry, so I think it takes home the prize here.
Achievement In Directing
Martin Scorsese - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood -
Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford - Ray
Alexander Payne -
Sideways
Mike Leigh - Vera Drake
In a tight race, Marty edges out Clint, and receives the longest ovation of the evening.
Best Documentary Feature
Born Into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist Of Faith
BiB is getting all the talk of late, so gotta go with it.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Autism Is A World
The Children Of Leningradsky
Hardwood
Mighty Times: The Children's March
Sister Rose's Passion
Children & Jewish issues are always popular subjects in the documentary categories. There are three docus here about childred, so they'll split votes and SRP will take it.
Achievement In Film Editing
The Aviator
Collateral
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
This one seems pretty locked for Thelma.
Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
As It Is In Heaven
The Chorus
Downfall
The Sea Inside
Yesterday
The Sea Inside seems the clear winner here, although
The Chorus could surprise.
Achievement In Makeup
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion Of The Christ
The Sea Inside
Although this is one should go to PotC, there will be enough people who would never vote to give anything to Gibson's epic to throw this to
Lemony Snicket
Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Jan A.P. Kaczmarek - Finding Neverland
John Williams - Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban
Thomas Newman -
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
John Debney - The Passion Of The Christ
James Newton Howard -
The Village
A very tough race to call - these are all worthy entries, but none really stands out. I'm guessing this is where the Academy will throw a bone to
Finding Neverland
Achievement In Music (Original Song)
"Accidentally In Love" -
Shrek 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - The Motorcycle Diaries
"Believe" - The Polar Express
"Learn To Be Lonely" -
The Phantom Of The Opera
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - The Chorus
This is a strange lineup. Gotta go with the one that feels the most Oscar-friendly - the lovely ballad "Believe". At least it was actually used IN the film.
Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
Although big mo seems to be with MDB, I'm going with history & Seth's formula.
Best Animated Short Film
Birthday Boy
Gopher Broke
Guard Dog
Lorenzo
Ryan
Hmm, I think I'll go with the anti-war statement here.
Best Live Action Short Film
Everything In This Country Must
Little Terrorist
7:35 In The Morning
Two Cars, One Night
Wasp
Who knows?? I'll go with the one with a kid in it.
Achievement In Sound Editing
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2
This one is always hard to predict, but I think
The Incredibles had the most obviously impressive work.
Achievement In Sound Mixing
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2
The music in
Ray sounded great, and I think that's what voters will remember.
Achievement In Visual Effects
Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2
A tight race between Harry & Spidey. I think the hippogriff takes it for HP.
Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Before Sunset
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Finding Neverland
Sideways
Another tight race. I think some minor issues in MDB (some poorly-drawn minor characters) will tilt voters to
Sideways.
Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
The Incredibles
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
The Aviator
Hotel Rwanda
Vera Drake
I think this is close to a lock. Charlie Kaufman finally wins his Oscar here.
Final Counts
The Aviator: 5
Million Dollar Baby: 3
Sideways: 2
The Incredibles: 2
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events: 2
Finding Neverland: 1
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: 1
Harry Potter & The Prisoner Of Azkaban: 1
The Polar Express: 1
Ray: 1
The Sea Inside: 1
Plus the 4 winners of the Documentary & Short categories.
