2004 Box Office Predictions And Discussions

Tino · 12-31-2003, 05:47 PM

I thought TerryRL would have started this thread by now. I'll start it, but if Terry wants to start his own, Mods feel free to close this one.

Well, a new year of wrong guesses, bold predictions, and fun discussions are upon us. What are your picks for soon to be blockbusters?

I'll start with Spiderman 2 and Harry Potter And The Prizoner Of Azkaban.

I say Spidey 2 will do about $350 million.

The new Potter, which is based on what many consider to be the best book so far, will be the most successful with over $325 million.

And we're off....

Robert Crawford · 12-31-2003, 05:50 PM

Geez, it's not even 2004 yet.

Tino · 01-01-2004, 12:19 AM

It is now.

TerryRL · 01-01-2004, 12:21 AM

I'd be surprised if Spidey 2 earned over $350 mil, but it'll definitely top the $250 million mark. 'Prisoner of Azkaban' will no doubt do enormous business as well, especially overseas (the previous two 'Potter' movies both topped the $600 million mark internationally). Though, I wouldn't be at all shocked if neither ended up as the year's biggest hit.

2004 promises to be a big year for CG animated movies as "The Incredibles", "The Polar Express", "Shark Tale", and "Shrek 2" all battle for box office supremacy. All four will probably be gigantic hits, but the battle for #1 may come down between Disney/Pixar's "The Incredibles" and WB's "The Polar Express".

Many expected 2003 to top the $9.37 billion record of 2002, but that didn't happen as 2003 saw declines in overall admissions as ticket saw another hike in prices.
2003 ended up with a still impressive mark of $9.27 billion, making it the second biggest grossing year ever for the studios at the box office. It's too early to gauge how big 2004 will be, but expect another $9 billion year at the box office.

By the way, thanks for starting the thread Tino. I was hoping someone would get around to starting a 2004 thread. I'd rather post in a thread than start one. Too much pressure.

Kami · 01-01-2004, 02:25 AM

The next LOTR movie will definitely take the cake. Each one has shown a steady increase in earnings, this one is sure to top out at $400 million.

Oh, wait.........

On a more serious note, Shrek 2 and The Incredibles I think more than anything will be up there. Shrek did great and got even more of a following on video. The trailer has an amazing response from the audience as well. Incredibles....pixar....'nuff said.

Spidey 2 will be up there of course, but I don't think it will top the first Spidey.

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Matt Stone · 01-01-2004, 02:29 AM

Quote:

Spidey 2 will be up there of course, but I don't think it will top the first Spidey.

Definitely. Spiderman had a pretty good surprise factor. Spidey 2 will not follow this pattern.

I'm thinking The Incredibles right now, but who knows. I'll make my predictions in the coming weeks.

Tino · 01-01-2004, 07:27 AM

Terry

That's cool. You are definitely the best contributor to these threads with your thorough updates. Thanks again and keep up the good work.

Shane S. · 01-01-2004, 07:37 AM

Well according to Dick Clark ( I defy anyone to say Dick is wrong) The Return of the King will be counted for 2004.

Matt Pelham · 01-01-2004, 09:41 AM

I think Spider-Man 2 has a shot at breaking the $115 million opening weekend record of the first film, but with legs nowhere near as good. I'm seeing a total of around $325 million.

I agree with Tino that the new Harry Potter (and the first to be released during Summer instead of winder) will be the most successful $320 million

Shrek 2: $275 million

The Ring 2: Although it seems strange to release this one right AFTER Halloween (??) and in during the same weekend as the Polar Express, I still see it with $140 million.

Adam_S · 01-01-2004, 12:23 PM

Well I need to a see a list of films matched with directors and stars first (for next fall/winter) but the big summer/november movies mentioned so far, here's some of my thoughts.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 350 million - it seems every new release of the latest book/movie, pundits predict that there'll be a huge drop because interest has dropped off. Well I predict the opposite, this'll easily be in the top three-five grossers of the year and will be the most successful Potter movie. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 100 million opening weekend. definitely the number one worldwide grosser of the year, it will come awful close to the 1 billion mark.

Shrek 2 - 230 million The trailer looks excellent, but right now I don't see this cracking much further than the 250 mark at the outside

Spider-Man 2 - 280 million Opening weekend depends on running time, I imagine. But I don't see this as quite the phenomenal success as the first. I wouldn't be surprised to see it just eek over 300 million (though I'd be happy to be surprised with a higher gross), and if so it will be declared the second 300 million failure

The Incredibles - 360 million Will probably dominate most of the christmas family season, and continue strong throughout the entirety of January 2k5. The Pixar touch, I have to predict so highly

my low estimate would be 320

The Polar Express - 250 million? Hard to tell on this film how it'll play until I've seen more trailers as well as see them with an actual audience in the theatre, but I just have a feeling that this could seriously be one of the top grossers of the year, going as high as 350 million (that keeps me nice and safe with a 100 million range!). This will probably have the lowest worldwide gross of these five films with the non-US bringing in slightly less than the US gross.

Adam