Malcolm R

It really is. I finally saw ROTK today for the first time and I think that's why I waited so long. I know that once I see it, then it's over. It's one of those experiences you don't want to end. I was even thinking part-way though ROTK that, "OK, let's just stop here and save the rest for next year." Sigh....

And I'm not sure why ROTK is dropping so much. The mid-afternoon matinee I went to today was still sold out in the biggest room in the theater. Maybe we just have more LOTR fans here than the average?

Kevin Grey

Malcolm, ROTK is performing exactly as expected. Its on track to make in the area of $370 million dollars, $30 million more than TTT which surprised a lot of people by outgrossing Fellowship. Christmas holidays when people have a lot of days off is the perfect time for a 3.5 hours movie and most saw it then.

Patrick Sun

As the weeks go on, the theater count for ROTK keeps dropping as new films open. Just the way it is (even if you empirically perceive it playing to a packed theater a month after its release).

"I am a leaf on the wind, watch how I soar!"
Patcave | 2006 Films | 2007 Films | Dragon Con 2008

TerryRL

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Along Came Polly" $27.6 million
#2 "Big Fish" $10.4 million ($37.9 million)
#3 "Torque" $10.26 million
#4 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $10.20 million ($326.7 million)
#5 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $8.7 million ($111.9 million)
#6 "Cold Mountain" $7.0 million ($65.0 million)
#7 "Something's Gotta Give" $6.0 million ($100.9 million)
#8 "My Baby's Daddy" $3.6 million ($12.3 million)
#9 "The Last Samurai" $3.1 million ($101.9 million)
#10 "Calender Girls" $3.0 million ($17.1 million)

Universal's romantic/comedy "Along Came Polly" had a stellar debut as it captured the #1 crown this weekend. The film blew away expectations by opening with $27.6 million, giving it the third best debut ever for the month of January. Only the "Star Wars" Special Edition reissue ($35.9 million) and "Black Hawk Down" ($28.6 million) had stronger January releases. 'Polly' also established the biggest opening ever for the Martin Luther King holiday frame, besting the $23.4 million debut of "Save the Last Dance" in 2001 (the $28.6 million tally of "Black Hawk Down" still is the highest gross for the MLK holiday, but that film was in limited release for several weeks before it went wide on that weekend). The film, which stars Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston, has gotten 2004 off to a solid start. 'Polly' wasn't expected to open this big and it now has a solid shot at becoming 2004's first $100 million earner. Comedies and family films are going to be huge this year, so the large debut of 'Polly' really should not have been that much of a surprise to those in the industry.

Sony's Oscar hopeful, "Big Fish", suffered only a 24% dip this weekend as it remained the #2 movie in the land. The Tim Burton directed fable has so far earned just under $38 million and looks headed for a final domestic tally in the area of $75 million. Expect it to fare even better if it receives any major Oscar nods next week.

WB's action flick "Torque" had a decent, but not spectacular, debut this weekend. The movie took in just over $10 million, but is expected to have a pretty fast fade.

Producers Guild winner 'The Return of the King' continues to dominate at the box office. After four weeks at #1 the Oscar hopeful fell to the #4 position, but suffered only a 28% hit in business. The movie has so far tallied just under $327 million and is still on course for a final mark in the area of $375 million. With it's Producers Guild win last night, the movie is clearly the favorite to take the coveted Best Picture Oscar next month. At this point, it'll be a major shock if anything is able to thwart Peter Jackson's juggernaut on Oscar night.

Fox's family comedy "Cheaper by the Dozen" continues to show strong legs in theaters. The film saw only a 25% decline in business as it's total reached $111 million. A final domestic tally in the neighborhood of $140 to $150 million is now expected, making it the biggest hit in star Steve Martin's long career.

Miramax's Oscar hopeful, "Cold Mountain", is also showing sturdy legs at multiplexes. The film was hit with only an 11% drop as it's total hit $65 million. This one is looking more and more like it'll have the staying power to reach the century mark. If it garners a lot of Oscar attention when the nods are announced, than expect it to have little difficulty in passing that high-water mark. Which would no doubt put a huge smile on the face of producer Harvey Weinstein.

Sony's comedy "Something's Gotta Give" passed the century mark this weekend as it experienced only a 22% hit in business. A final tally of more than $120 million is now expected for the film. This gives star Jack Nicholson his second 2003 release to pass the $100 million mark (joining his comedy hit "Anger Management"). Don't be too surprised if the film's other star, Diane Keaton, hears her name announced among the Best Actress hopefuls next week.

Miramax's comedy "My Baby's Daddy" took a 51% hit this weekend. The film has taken in just over $12 million (which is how much it's production budget was) and it should end it's run in the area of $20 to $25 million.

WB's epic "The Last Samurai" also passed the century mark this weekend as it took a moderate 31% decline. The film has so far earned just under $102 million and is on course for a final mark of between $110 and $115 million. With a combined production and marketing cost of $170 million, the WB flick will need to do very well overseas to turn a decent profit. Speaking of which, the movie is currently doing very well as it continues to open internationally. It has already earned over $100 million overseas. "The Last Samurai" represents the first $100 million grosser for director Ed Zwick and the eleventh for star Tom Cruise ('Samruai' is the fourth $100 million performer out of his last six movies). While it's not expected to be nominated in many major catagories (Ken Watanabe is the only lock for a major Oscar nod), expect the movie to do very well in the technical categories when the nods are announced.

Disney's comedy "Calender Girls" took only an 18% hit this weekend. The movie is still playing in less than 1,000 locations and has so far tallied a little more than $17 million.

"Something's Gotta Give", "The Last Samurai" and 'The Cat in the Hat' (which also found it's way past the century mark this weekend) give 2003 an unprecedented 29 releases to pass the $100 million plateau. "Cold Mountain" could make it 30. Despite not being as big a year as 2002 was in total box office, 2003 still managed to top the 2002 record of 24 $100 million releases. It'll be interesting to see if 2004 can match that number.

Next weekend will see the releases of New Line's "The Butterfly Effect", Miramax's "Mindhunters" and the DreamWorks comedy "Win a Date with Tad Hamilton". I think 'Tad Hamilton' will have a strong debut, but I fully expect "Along Came Polly" to remain the nation's top movie.

Kevin Grey

Interestingly, Box Office Mojo has ROTK in second place for the four day weekend totals.

TerryRL

Four-Day Holiday Estimates

#1 "Along Came Polly" $32.7 million
#2 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $12.7 million ($329.3 million)
#3 "Big Fish" $12.3 million ($39.8 million)
#4 "Torque" $11.7 million
#5 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $10.6 million ($113.8 million)
#6 "Cold Mountain" $8.5 million ($66.5 million)
#7 "Something's Gotta Give" $6.6 million ($101.5 million)
#8 "My Baby's Daddy" $4.6 million ($13.3 million)
#9 "Calender Girls" $3.8 million ($17.9 million)
#10 "The Last Samurai" $3.7 million ($102.6 million)

Patrick Sun

Hey, I was right, Torque finished no higher than 4th!

"I am a leaf on the wind, watch how I soar!"
Patcave | 2006 Films | 2007 Films | Dragon Con 2008

Brian W.

Apparently there's been an update, because Box Office Mojo now shows ROTK at #2 for the 3-day weekend estimates as well:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend...wknd=03&p=.htm

And since that's going to be replaced with the actuals on Tuesday, here's a cut-and-paste:



Movie City News, which does its own estimates (that for the past couple weekends turned out to be more accurate than the studio estimates), has it like this for the four-day weekend:

1. Along Came Polly Uni 32.8 (10,980) - 2984 32.8
2. Lord of the Rings: Return of King New Line 12.6 (4,200) -28% 3003 329.2
3. Big Fish Sony 12.5 (4,960) -22% 2514 40
4. Torque WB 11.8 (4,770) - 2463 11.8
5. Cheaper By the Dozen Fox 10.9 (3,600) -22% 3025 114.1
6. Cold Mountain Miramax 8.0 (2,890) -14% 2802 66
7. Something's Gotta Give Sony 6.8 (2,720) -20% 2502 101.8
8. My Baby's Daddy Miramax 4.4 (3,010) -50% 1448 13.1
9. Calendar Girls BV 3.8 (3,960) -14% 967 17.9
10. The Last Samurai WB 3.7 (2,630) -32% 1403 102.6
11. Chasing Liberty WB 3.3 (1,380) -54% 2400 10.5
12. Paycheck Par 3.3 (1,670) -44% 1984 51.2
13. Teacher's Pet BV 3.2 (1,590) - 2027 3.2
14. Peter Pan Uni 2.7 (1,640) -46% 1659 43.5
15. Mona Lisa Smile Sony 2.6 (1,400) -49% 1836 60.9
16. Monster Newmarket 1.7 (8,040) 71% 214 3.5
17. 21 Grams Focus 1.3 (3,140) -13% 411 10.9
18. The Cooler Lions Gate 1.3 (3,210) 251% 396 3.7
19. House of Sand and Fog DreamWorks 1.2 (2,060) -28% 598 9.2
20. In America Fox Searchlight 1.0 (3,530) -11% 286 8.1
21. Lost in Translation Focus .88 (2,400) -5% 366 33.7
22. Master and Commander Fox .58 (1,890) -7% 306 84.8
23. Girl with a Pearl Earring Lions Gate .53 (10,390) 29% 51 1.9
24. Haunted Mansion BV .51 (1,140) -45% 446 72.4

TerryRL

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Butterfly Effect" $17.1 million
#2 "Along Came Polly" $16.6 million ($53.5 million)
#3 "Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!" $7.5 million
#4 "Big Fish" $7.3 million ($49.1 million)
#5 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $6.8 million ($337.8 million)
#6 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $6.6 million ($122.7 million)
#7 "Cold Mountain" $5.0 million ($72.5 million)
#8 "Torque" $4.4 million ($17.1 million)
#9 "Something's Gotta Give" $4.1 million ($107.1 million)
#10 "Mystic River" $3.1 million ($58.5 million)

New Line's thriller "The Butterfly Effect" took the #1 crown this weekend with a solid mark of $17 million. The movie gives star Ashton Kutcher the second biggest opening of his career as a headlining star (following the $17.5 million debut of "Just Married" last year). Whether or not the movie has strong legs or not, Kutcher has at least proven that he can open both a comedy and a drama.

Universal's comedy hit "Along Came Polly" took a moderate 40% hit this weekend as it's total climbed to $53.5 million. A final domestic tally of more than $100 million is now expected.

DreamWorks' comedy "Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!" had a decent (but unspectacular) opening this weekend as it earned $7.5 million.

Sony's "Big Fish" took only a 29% hit this weekend. Tim Burton's Oscar hopeful has so far earned $49.1 million.

New Line's blockbuster 'The Return of the King' saw a moderate 33% dip this weekend and saw it's total hit $337 million. This time next weekend the Oscar favorite will have become the biggest money maker of 2003.

Patrick Sun

Big Fish finally overtakes ROTK!!!

"I am a leaf on the wind, watch how I soar!"
Patcave | 2006 Films | 2007 Films | Dragon Con 2008