2004 Box Office Predictions And Discussions - Page 51

Kevin Grey · 07-31-2004, 10:20 PM

Considering that Cruise's last four movies all made more than $100 million, I think it's safe to assume that "Collateral" has a better than average shot at hitting the century mark.

I'm getting more of an "Eyes Wide Shut" vibe as far as Cruise movies go box-office performance wise- it will open because Cruise pretty much guarantees it but general audiences may be turned off by the role he's playing. I though "Last Samurai" was a much more commercial film that seemd clearly designed to be Oscar bait.

We'll see. I hope its a big hit because Mann is one of my favorite directors, I like Cruise a lot, and I really like the concept. I just wonder if the box office expectations are reasonably aligned with the actual content of the movie.

TerryRL · 07-31-2004, 11:59 PM

Audiences might go for Cruise playing the "bad guy" as opposed to the characters he usually plays. Cruise is probably hoping for similar reactions to Denzel playing the heavy in "Training Day" ($76.6 million and a Best Actor Oscar) and Tom Hanks playing a darker character in "Road to Perdition" ($104.4 million).

While I do think it has a chance at getting to $100 mil, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it did under-perform compared to what the studio expects. I'm hopeful because Michael Mann is one of the best directors in the biz ("Heat" remains one of my favorite movies) and I'd love to see the guy score a big hit with this one.

As for the marketing of "Thunderbirds", ads ran in heavy rotation on both Cartoon Network and Nickelodeon, with smaller runs on the Sci-Fi Channel and the networks.

Kevin Grey · 08-01-2004, 06:16 AM

You know I didn't even know that Thunderbirds opened this weekend until I saw the box office charts.

Edwin Pereyra · 08-01-2004, 11:20 AM

Word of mouth already got out and fast on The Village.

Fri: $20,400,000
Sat: $16,950,000
Sun: $13,460,000

Expect an even bigger drop next weekend. The purported "shroud of secrecy" is over.

~Edwin

Malcolm R · 08-01-2004, 12:01 PM

Wow. I don't recall the last time I saw a Fri-Sat drop that large.

I also wonder if that Sunday estimate (only about 20% drop) isn't a little high given the Saturday drop plus the usual Sunday drop of 30% for most films.

David_Blackwell · 08-01-2004, 02:01 PM

It is sad that more people went and saw Catwoman in the second weekend than they did Thunderbirds in the first weekend (but the TV ads didn't help).

Pete-D · 08-01-2004, 02:16 PM

The Village will drop, but Disney will probably be helped a lot by the fact that there isn't a lot of stong competition in the next few weeks. Unbreakable dropped off fast as well, so I think the same thing will happen here.

I don't think Collateral will make $100 million. Vanilla Sky was helped tremendously by the huge media storm over the Cruise-Cruz relationship.

Too bad about Harold & Kumar. For a movie like that, I think releasing it alongside two other higher profile pictures was a big mistake, but I think studios get ancy about August and want to get as much "summer time" for their movies instead of waiting for the right weekend.

TerryRL · 08-01-2004, 03:00 PM

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Village" $50.8 million
#2 "The Bourne Supremacy" $23.4 million ($98.0 million) -55%
#3 "The Manchurian Candidate" $20.2 million
#4 "I, Robot" $10.0 million ($114.7 million) -53%
#5 "Spider-Man 2" $8.5 million ($344.3 million) -43%
#6 "Catwoman" $6.0 million ($29.4 million) -63%
#7 "Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle" $5.1 million
#8 "A Cinderella Story" $4.6 million ($40.1 million) -40%
#9 "Fahrenheit 9/11" $3.1 million ($109.4 million) -35%
#10 "Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgandy" $3.1 million ($78.1 million) -55%

Disney had a good news/bad news type of weekend in the wake of the opening of their new film "The Village". The good news is the movie debuted at #1 with nearly $51 million, easily making it Disney's biggest opening of the year thus far. The bad news being that the movie is already showing signs of a steep percentage decline next weekend (you can check out the film's daily totals in Edwin's post). What's in Disney's favor is that the movie cost a very modest $60 million and will prove to be a profitable hit for them.

Even though most are expecting bad word-of-mouth to result in steep declines, "The Village" will still ultimately find it's way past the century mark, making it Disney's first 2004 release to join the $100 million club. This would also give director M. Night Shyamalan his third $100 million grosser out of his last four movies.

Universal's spy adventure, "The Bourne Supremacy", took a 55% hit this weekend as it's total climbed to $98 million. In this day and age, 50% declines after huge openings are the norm and 'Bourne' should ultimately end up earning in the area of $155-$165 million. The third film of this spy trilogy, "The Bourne Ultimatum", is tentatively set for a summer 2006 release.

Paramount's remake of "The Manchurian Candidate" got off to a solid start this weekend as it took in more than $20 million. This gives star Denzel Washington his fifth $20 million opener out of his last seven films. This also marks the strongest opening for director Jonathan Demme since "Philadelphia" (which also ironically starred Denzel Washington) went wide in the second weekend of 1994. It took in $13.8 million to capture the #1 spot. With solid word-of-mouth, this one should end up being Denzel's second big hit of the year, joining "Man on Fire" ($77.7 million). 'Manchurian' will also become Demme's strongest box office performer since "Philadelphia" ($77.4 million).

Fox's "I, Robot" saw a 53% slide in business this weekend as it's total now stands at close to $115 million. A final tally of about $150 million is still expected. "I, Robot" will end up being star Will Smith's fourth biggest hit film behind "Independence Day" ($306.1 million), "Men in Black" ($250.6 million) and "Men in Black II" ($190.4 million).

Sony's mega sized hit "Spider-Man 2" took another moderate dip of 43% and has so far tallied $344 million. This one is still on course to top out in the neighborhood of $370 million.

WB's "Catwoman" took a steep decline of 63% this weekend. It has so far earned close to $30 million. This one should end it's run in the area of $45 million, and the producers should consider that a gift. What's amazing is that WB will probably be able to recoup this lemon's $130 million budget with a decent performance overseas and a strong run on home video. Go figure.

New Line's comedy "Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle" got off to a slow start as it earned just over $5 million this weekend. It'll probably pull a fast fade from theaters, but end up having a much stronger run on home video.

WB's "A Cinderella Story" took a moderate hit of 40% as it's total cracked the $40 million mark. It should top out in the area of $55-$60 million.

Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" saw only a 35% dip in business this weekend (the smallest decline of the top ten). The movie is nearing the $110 million mark and is still on course to end it's run in the neighborhood of $120 million.

DreamWorks' comedy 'Anchorman' rounds out the top ten. It saw a 55% hit in business this weekend and has so far tallied just over $78 million. A final tally of $85-$90 million is expected.

Universal's family film, "Thunderbirds", didn't even crack the top ten upon it's opening this weekend. The movie debuted in the #12 position with only $2.6 million. With a cost of well over $70 million, this is going to be a very expensive flop for the studio.

The year's biggest blockbuster, "Shrek 2", fell out of the top ten this week. The movie landed at #14 slot with a weekend tally of $1.3 million (a 44% decline off of it's numbers last week), bringing it's total to a monstrous $432.4 million. The movie is now only $2.8 million away from passing 'E.T.' ($435.1 million) to become the third biggest domestic hit in history.

Next weekend will see the opening of DreamWorks' action/thriller "Collateral". The movie, from director Michael Mann, will become the latest in a long line of #1 openers for star Tom Cruise. It'll also be interesting to see how big of a percentage decline "The Village" takes next weekend.

Pete-D · 08-01-2004, 09:00 PM

I think the Village will drop to no.2 next weekend (Collateral being no.1) with $18 million or so and finish its run with about $120 million domestic.

A $60 million budget is downright stingy for such a big release these days, the movie should be very profitable in the end. All in all though this movie seems like it'll wind up more like Unbreakable than Signs, which Disney probably would've loved, but at least they get out of an otherwise horrid summer season (passing on F911, King Arthur, etc.) and can focus on "The Incredibles" this fall.

I do think The Village if nothing else will probably launch Bryce Howard's career. Maybe Night will use her again in the future.

With Thunderbirds, they forgot one of the cardinal rules of the Spy Kids movies -- those films are made on very compact budgets.

I think they should've used marionettes with CGI environments instead of the live action kids.

Chris · 08-01-2004, 10:38 PM

Well, "Bourne" went straight into the "black" this weekend, going over it's raw production costs ($78M) which virtually guarantees the sequel. If it pegs where I think it will (about $150/$160 as a final) then it will be a big earner for the summer, and the DVD will probably sell well. Good to see

I, Robot will not recoup it's cost in theater first run, but most assuredly will make money after the DVD + International release.

Catwoman, though.. I know it "might" make up the money, but there is a lot of backend on this one.. they commissioned everything, cups for theaters, production screeners, etc. So, a lot of people got a piece of that piece of crap.