2004 Box Office Predictions And Discussions - Page 4

TerryRL · 01-10-2004, 03:07 PM

Friday Estimates

#1 "Big Fish" $4.5 million ($14.1 million)
#2 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $3.6 million ($301.7 million)
#3 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $3.0 million ($92.4 million)
#4 "My Baby's Daddy" $2.4 million
#5 "Something's Gotta Give" $2.39 million ($87.1 million)
#6 "Chasing Liberty" $2.35 million
#7 "Cold Mountain" $2.31 million ($49.7 million)
#8 "Paycheck" $1.6 million ($42.9 million)
#9 "Mona Lisa Smile" $1.38 million ($53.8 million)
#10 "The Last Samurai" $1.31 million ($93.9 million)

Tim Burton's "Big Fish" surprised many by snatching the #1 spot from 'Return of the King' yesterday, despite playing in over 1,100 less theaters. After spending the previous few weeks in limited release, Sony finally went wide this weekend. The Oscar hopeful is on course to end up with between $13 and $16 million this weekend.

Taking a bigger than expected 66% hit off of it's Friday-to-Friday numbers was New Line's blockbuster 'The Return of the King'. Still, the movie managed to pass the $300 million in only it's 24th day of release, giving it the second fastest pace to the triple-century mark. The 22 day pace of "Spider-Man" remains #1. ROTK should earn between $10 and $12 million this weekend.

The Fox family hit, "Cheaper by the Dozen", also took a bigger than expected 66% decline. In spite of that, the movie will pass the $100 million mark during next week.

While playing in only 1,447 theaters, the Miramax comedy "My Baby's Daddy" debuted in the #4 slot. A debut weekend mark of over $6 million is expected.

Sony's romantic/comedy, "Something's Gotta Give", took a moderate hit of 46% from it's pace last weekend and will pass the $90 million mark on Sunday.

Dennis Pagoulatos · 01-10-2004, 06:07 PM

It looks like the box office for ROTK was more heavily front-loaded than TTT, which was more heavily front-loaded than FOTR. It should still outgross TTT though...just not by much.

-Dennis

nolesrule · 01-10-2004, 06:56 PM

Before anyone comes to any conclusions, ROTK may be more of a Saturday film than the previous two just because of the longer running time.

Let's also not forget that the previous Friday was a vacation day for many, if not most, in the US, resulting in numbers more typical of a Saturday than a Friday. Therefore it would be expected to have a bigger Friday-to-Friday drop than the previous two movies.

I'm still seeing plenty of $12-14.5M predictions for this weekend, even after taking into account the Friday estimate.

Dennis Pagoulatos · 01-10-2004, 07:49 PM

True, but regardless of that fact, the trend from the opening of ROTK to this point proves that it is more heavily front loaded than the previous LOTR films. It's only hope of a box office boost is going to be the Academy Award nominations/ awards (if it wins). Otherwise I expect it to fade faster than TTT, which faded much faster than FOTR.

-Dennis

Patrick Sun · 01-10-2004, 08:20 PM

Well, I guessed $335 million for ROTK, so I think I've underguessed its take, but if it gets to $375 million, it will have done really well now that we are back into normalcy in terms of weekend viewing for movies outside the holiday season. But I think it'll get to $360 million with no problems now.

Vickie_M · 01-10-2004, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Tino: I think King will be #1. BTW, in regards to Big Fish's BO potential, I believe that once word gets out about how bad it is, IMO, it will fade fast.

Looks to me like word is getting out about how GOOD it is, so it will do even bigger numbers. I adore Big Fish, so I'm thrilled.

Quote:

Dennis: Otherwise I expect it to fade faster than TTT, which faded much faster than FOTR.

That's true, Fellowship consistently made more money than TTT after the first 3 weeks (I assume you're using the numbers at Box Office Mojo http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/vs-lotr.htm) but I think that TTT didn't have the repeatability factor that FOTR did.

Just going by my own experience as a huge fan, besides having the "middle child" factor (no beginning, no end, not as much happens) I already knew that an Extended version with even more footage was coming, that I'd probably like even better. I still saw TTT 9 times in the theater and loved it every time, but I didn't feel the need to see it over and over again. I felt the need with FOTR, not only because I loved it dearly, but because there was just SO MUCH there to see. Everything was new and wonderful and exciting to discover. The characters, the locations, the costumes, the situations, the details details details! I could see it 100 times and not catch a fraction of the details. To me the two movies were like the difference between a huge old European museum stuffed with a myriad of various-sized items in countless nooks and crannys, and a modern art exhibit with a few well-placed items for contemplation. Or something like that. There just wasn't, it seemed, as much to see in TTT (there was, it just didn't seem that way).

ROTK is closer to FOTR. There's more to look at, discover, think about. It has a long, fascinating, multi-tiered ending so I come out of the theater sated and smiling. And still wanting to see it again. If a lot of other people feel like me, it could hang on more like Fellowship than The Two Towers.

Since I'd better make this post somewhat useful and on-topic, I'm going to make another prediction, ROTK - $380million Domestic, which will put it at #6, between Spider-Man and Jurassic Park.

nolesrule · 01-10-2004, 11:48 PM

Quote:

True, but regardless of that fact, the trend from the opening of ROTK to this point proves that it is more heavily front loaded than the previous LOTR films. It's only hope of a box office boost is going to be the Academy Award nominations/ awards (if it wins). Otherwise I expect it to fade faster than TTT, which faded much faster than FOTR.

Being frontloaded has nothing to do with repeatable viewing factors. At this point in 2001, I'd seen FOTR 4 times and in 2002 TTT 3 times. I've only seen ROTK twice, but I expect to see it once more in January, February and March.

Because it is more than 10% longer than the other two films, how many people are spreading out their repeat viewings?

And the estimate was just for Friday. It could go up, it could go down. We don't even know how well Saturday and Sunday are going to be. Until the weekend actuals come in, there's just no way to be able to know if the legs are dropping.

A couple years ago, Jay & Silent Bob Strikes Back was #1 after it's first day, but that was the only day it was ever #1, ended up #3 for the weekend and made $30M. If you went by its Friday gross, you would have been wrong in your predictions, because it didn't fit the normal model.

Point being, the first 3 Fridays were all artificially high because of opening and because of following a holiday/being a vacation day.

Adam_S · 01-11-2004, 01:16 AM

btw, does anyone know the cinemascore ratings on Big Fish? If it takes opening weekend with high cinema score ratings, it could be the boost and replace a Lost in Translation, MAster and Commander or Seabiscuit in the final oscar noms. With the noms closing on friday, the films on people's minds (and mentioned prominantly in the trades due to its numbers and oscar season etc) may have an edge, and lots of positive buzz on Big Fish could possibly overwhelm Seabiscuit (which may or may not have peeked its buzz out last week).

Adam

Dennis Pagoulatos · 01-11-2004, 03:00 AM

I think the repeatability factor fades with each passing installment for the average movie fan. (Not the internet geeks/ LOTR book & movie fanatics). Even for someone like myself who is a HUGE fan of the films and the books, I've only seen ROTK once so far...and I want to go see it one more time, and then I think I'll be done until the EE comes out. And this is for a theatrical edition that I loved much more than my lukewarm reception to TTT Theatrical last year! I had seen TTT 3 times by this point last year already...same as FOTR the year before (final count for FOTR was 5 times, TTT- 4 times).

I think the average movie fan was hungry to see the conclusion of the series, so they rushed out to see it immediately (hence the first 2 weeks of massive box office)...and now the desire to go back again has waned for all but the most hard-core of fans because, after all, the average joe has seen the ending now, it's done! Why go back again?? That's what I think anyway...regardless of all that, it's made a boatload of money already, and it will make some more before it's done with!

-Dennis

Tino · 01-11-2004, 08:22 AM

I don't think Big Fish has any chance at any major Oscar noms. Opinion here at the HTF is very divided with some loving it and some hating it. The buzz is definitely mixed.

As for it's boxoffice outlook, Let's see how well it does next week Vickie!