2004 Box Office Predictions And Discussions - Page 2

Adam_S · 01-04-2004, 04:54 PM

oh man I forgot to put the prediction for the top grosser of the year in my above post!

The Passion of the Christ - 500 million

(and that could be a conservative estimate).

I would not be surprised to see this be one of the highest grossing films of the year.

Adam

Nick Sievers · 01-04-2004, 05:00 PM

Quote:

The Passion of the Christ - 500 million

Is this a joke? I can't tell if the smiliey is meant to indicate this. I was thinking it would make a maximum of $50 million.

. 500 Million, not a chance in hell.

Dennis Pagoulatos · 01-04-2004, 05:32 PM

I think it's pretty safe to say that "Spiderman 2" and "Harry Potter" will be the biggest films of summer 2004. Beyond that, I haven't a clue...yet. Still waiting for those Superbowl trailers, personally (Van Helsing could be huge as well)

-Dennis

Chris · 01-04-2004, 07:14 PM

Quote:

500 Million, not a chance in hell.

Now -that's- funny considering the content. No way that much; $50M is even a stretch; but I don't think that will matter.

Larry Sutliff · 01-04-2004, 08:31 PM

I don't think that THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST will go anywhere near 500 Million(!), but I do think it has a shot at being a major success, especially if it's as good as most of those who have seen the film say it is. I think it could make 100 Million dollars, not bad on a 30 million dollar investment.

My other predictions:

The Alamo (Disney) - $80 Million

Alien vs. Predator (Fox)- $75 Million
Blade: Trinity (New Line)- $75 Million

The Bourne Supremacy (Universal)- $125 Million

Catwoman (WB)- $40 Million(a major flop)

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (WB)- $275 Million

Van Helsing(Universal) $200 Million

Spider-Man(Sony)-$300 Million

Sky Captain-$75 Million(I think it looks nifty, but it may not sell to a mass audience)

I, Robot-$125 Million

Malcolm R · 01-04-2004, 10:04 PM

I wouldn't expect The Passion... to do more than other Christian funded/themed films have recently, such as Left Behind and The Omega Code. These films did, what, about $15M? Not many people out there interested in these types of films apparently.

Since Mel Gibson is involved, as a nod to whatever celebrity he may have and the controversy surrounding the film, I'll double it and say about $30M. I'd heard once that it was going to be entirely non-English and non-subtitled. If so, cut it back in half to $15M.

Dennis Pagoulatos · 01-04-2004, 10:36 PM

I'll say that the hard "ARRRRR" rating and the fact that it's about Jesus will alienate a lot of people. I'm guessing $50 million tops for "The Passion".

-Dennis

Colin Jacobson · 01-04-2004, 11:14 PM

Quote:

The Passion of the Christ - 500 million

(and that could be a conservative estimate).

I would not be surprised to see this be one of the highest grossing films of the year.

Really - this IS a joke, right? No way this one's in the top 50 for the year. Controversial, but not in a good way. Subject matter that doesn't exactly scream "blockbuster". And Gibson won't help the box office - he doesn't even act in the flick, does he?

I predict $19 million total for it, and that might be a gift. According to IMDB, Last Temptation only earned $8 million - no reason to believe Gibson's flick will be radically more successful...

Adam_S · 01-04-2004, 11:29 PM

not a joke.

but I could very well be very wrong. BUt I would be delighted to see tPotC just sneak over 601 million to become the top grosser. In my opinion everyone and their brother is going to go out and see this film. multiple times. the only major crowd that won't catch the film will probably be most of the 12 and under kids. seriously.

It may seem crazy, but here's why I've rationalized it. my Dad who know nothing about movies has been asking me about this movie every chance he gets for the past FOUR months. My brother's wedding in december took place in a tiny church with a maximum capacity of maybe 150 people in a town of 2000 in the middle of Kansas. Their youth room had a poster up for the film. My best friends Dad's church (friends father is the pastor) recieved a DVD from a company completely unaffiliated with Icon. They see the film as an evangelical oppurtunity (even if Gibson et al aren't using the film as such) and sent the church a dvd with the internet trailer and interviews with Gibson and others. The grassroots and word of mouth on this film will be unprecendented. I've heard that exhibitors are falling over themselves to book the film, even without a major studio doing the distribution. and the raves that came out of atheists, agnostics, christians, and all around cynical movie buffs at the AICN screening simply confirmed my suspicions. This film will be huge. Everyone I talk to while I"m back home knows about the film (same for my best friend in New Jersey) and half of them ask me about it, knowing I know about movies.

So I guess you could summarize my opinion on this films gross to be, "have faith".

Adam

Colin Jacobson · 01-04-2004, 11:47 PM

Quote:

So I guess you could summarize my opinion on this films gross to be, "have faith".

Go for it, but I still think it doesn't have a prayer of making real bucks!

Matt Stone · 01-05-2004, 02:39 AM

Adam, you seem a little biased in your polling of people. I can understand that a good portion of the Church going community will see the film, as well as many movie buffs...but releasing a film that focus on a controversial topic will never yield Titanic-like numbers.

I've heard everyone talking about Return of the King for the last year, but I never had the feeling it was going to take down Titanic's take. While The Passion may be a huge hit, there's no way in hell it's getting close to 600 million.