2004 Box Office Predictions And Discussions - Page 10

Kevin Grey · 02-24-2004, 02:59 AM

Kevin, what I meant by a TRULY objective figure is one that takes into account all the special situations like re-releases, home video, national pastimes, etc. Something that could take EVERYTHING into account to truly gauge the ultimate popularity of a film. I just...don't know how you'd do it.

Oh, got ya. In that case I agree.

And regarding box office figures and their worth...well, we are all sitting here discussing in the BO prediction and discussion thread, aren't we?

Yeah, I've been interested in box office numbers for as long as I can remember. I've just never liked the adjusted for inflation argument unless appropriate caveats are made.

ThomasC · 02-24-2004, 07:24 AM

Here's an article from the New York Times on Newmarket's handling of two Oscar nominations and the release of "The Passion of the Christ":

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/24/mo...rs/24BERN.html

Quote:

Icon is handling the publicity, through Mr. Gibson's publicist, Alan Neirob, at Rogers & Cowan, and a consultant for religion-based marketing, Paul Lauer. Box-office tracking research indicates that the movie could earn $35 million to $50 million in its opening five days, and as much as $150 million in domestic ticket sales.

The number of theaters to show the movie has increased to 3,000 from 2,000, Mr. Berney said. "Theaters are adding two to four screens in each complex, based on demand," he said. "They have advance sales of $10 million. They've been inundated with calls from church groups." At one Orange County, Calif., theater, Mr. Berney said, "a woman brought $11,000 in cash and bought out as many shows as she could."

Now Newmarket's skeleton staff is struggling to cope with the film's expanding release pattern. "Four thousand prints for a studio is not such a big deal," Mr. Berney said. "But this is an indie release." (It took "My Big Fat Greek Wedding" six months to reach 2,000 screens.) To manufacture 4,000 prints at the last minute, Newmarket had to use labs not only in the United States but also in Canada and Italy.

BrianShort · 02-24-2004, 12:43 PM

Initially I was expecting The Passion to do quite well. I still think it's going to have a pretty big opening weekend, particularly because of the number of churchgoers that seem to be very interested in it, but I don't know what kind of legs it will have. Based on a lot of the reviews coming out, it sounds like the amount of violence and gore is so bad it overwhelms almost anything else. I wonder how the general movie going public will react to that.

Brian

Kevin Grey · 02-24-2004, 01:13 PM

Just checked Rotten Tomatoes and I'm honestly surprised to see it rated as Rotten so far. I expected a certain amount of polarization, but still expected that most critics would recommend it on the base of its ambition even if they didn't think it was wholly successful.

Patrick Sun · 02-24-2004, 01:35 PM

Well, at 56% positive (and fresh = 60%), it's not like it's totally rotten. People will choose to see it or not see it, but not based on a critic's review.

Chris · 02-24-2004, 02:37 PM

I think what you are seeing also is a real split within the critic business; Ebert & Roeper seemed to both think it "magnificent" whereas David Ansen thought it was gory and terrible.

I guess that is somewhat what I expected it to be, so I can't say that it would be a huge distraction, much as I would find say, Schindler's List horrible and graphic, and Saving Private Ryan horribly graphic.. but it's about what you'd expect if you believe it to be the 'truth' of the event..

I somehow think that this is one of those films that is largely "review proof" and the more negative reviews it receives from mainstream press may be a good thing for it's success in the bible belt who may view it as a 'strike back' at overblown conceptions of "media power"

Seth Paxton · 02-24-2004, 03:23 PM

I don't know. If the reviews are running that bad I don't think it will achieve blockbuster status. Many people from these church groups have already committed to going, but if any portion of them think the film is in bad taste, too violent, or in some other ways a bit unhealthy, then I think all the pre-hype could start to work against the film.

Sure it will cash in early on, but that won't be enough to carry it out to $150m. It could even go short of $100m if it doesn't catch the interest of mainstream America.

56% is not a death-blow, but I would certain expect it to be running more like 75-80% if it was going to be a big hit. It's not escapist cinema so I don't think it can afford to not be a great film if it wants to make serious money.

David Ansen's RT blurb

Quote:

Instead of being moved by Christ's suffering, or awed by his sacrifice, I felt abused by a filmmaker intent on punishing an audience, for who knows what sins.

Sounds like a film with all the box office potential of Requiem for a Dream, which was similarly off-putting for some audiences. The different subject matter will of course give Passion a big boost, but I don't see a huge demand to see endless torture and suffering period.

And the film is running with a 38% with the major critics. Of the non-majors only a few regulars that I recognize have chimed in, and most of the ones I know are rather negative also. We will see once the rest of the non-majors are filled in by the local newspaper critics who normally make up a big portion of the overall RT score.

Malcolm R · 02-24-2004, 03:34 PM

I don't see a huge demand to see endless torture and suffering period.

That's where I think the issue lies with how successful the film will be. Given the early reviews, the film seems to be quite different from what a lot of people might think. I don't think they're all expecting 2 hours of continuous beating and bloody torture.

I have relatives who are quite religious and I expect they'll want to see the film. But knowing how they cringe at any bit of violence in films, I can't imagine them sitting there for two hours of it, biblical story or not.

Patrick Sun · 02-24-2004, 04:25 PM

Sadistic as it might sound, "The Passion" might be considered shock therapy for its core demographic. I still can't foresee much in terms of "re-watchability" of this film by the masses, but there's a large "mass" for its demographic, so the built-in audience/population that would seem at least interested in this film is much larger than pretty much 90% of most films that show up at the theaters.

I also think that the amount of religious/non-religious baggage you bring with you into the film can affect your response to it, and I don't think the critics are immune to this, and this is reflected in a tally of critics' responses to the film via Rotten Tomatoes.

I'm not as interested in how much this film grosses, but how well it's made and how well it conveys what it sets up to convey. It feels almost strange to care about how much this film will take in at the box office, given the subject matter of the film itself.

Ray H · 02-24-2004, 04:36 PM

Didn't see anyone post it, but ROTK's now passed $1 Billion worldwide.

It has a total of $1,005,380,412.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/vs-lotr-ww.htm