More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Mark Talmadge · 05-15-2008, 10:26 PM

Thought I'd pass this along, which could explain why there haven't been a lot of titles coming out since Blu Ray won the battle.

Quote:

Don't freak out, you're not experiencing any weird case of déjà vu -- reports are simply continuing to come out that suggest that Blu-ray adoption isn't taking off. The newest of the bunch comes to us from Harris Interactive, which surveyed upwards of 2,500 individuals in mid-April. Results showed that 87% of those polled owned a DVD player, but just 4% owned a dedicated Blu-ray deck while 5% owned a PlayStation 3. Comically enough, 6% claimed that they had an HD DVD player, while another 1% owned an Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. Most notably, just 9% of respondents stated that they were "likely" to purchase a BD player within the next year, even when made fully aware that BD was the victor in the now-concluded format war. Of course, just 35% of those polled owned an HDTV, which is certainly worth considering, but even analysts at Harris agreed that getting BD player prices well below $300 was necessary for adoption to surge. Hit the read link for lots more stats.

More research asserts that Blu-ray adoption isn't apt to surge soon - Engadget HD

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RickER · 05-15-2008, 10:44 PM

Course none of it would have anything to do with the fact that it is summer, and people dont buy many "indoor" toys this time of year. Also, the fact that once again, because its summer, and that means its time for gas prices to surge out of control. That wouldnt have anything to do with it either.

All old news, talked about in a few other threads. Doesnt mean Blu is dead. But i see enough titles coming out later this summer to keep me poor!

TravisR · 05-15-2008, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickER

But i see enough titles coming out later this summer to keep me poor!

Same here. Everyone would love the BIG titles to come out but I'm reasonably happy and reasonably poor with new releases on Blu Ray and what I'd consider some fairly decent second tier catalog titles.

Quite frankly, I still don't care if Blu Ray catches on with the public like DVD did.

MatthewA · 05-16-2008, 12:22 AM

Would it be better for the overall quality of the discs if it remained a large niche? No MAR jobs, no excessive DVNR, no sub-EPK extras. Unfortunately, it would prevent a lot of worthy titles from getting released.

Danny_N · 05-16-2008, 01:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MatthewA

Would it be better for the overall quality of the discs if it remained a large niche? No MAR jobs, no excessive DVNR, no sub-EPK extras. Unfortunately, it would prevent a lot of worthy titles from getting released.

Depends on the people who make up that large niche. If I look at all the complaints about a little grain in a movie, I'd say that the current niche is not averse to excessive DVNR.

I doubt BD will ever overtake DVD but I'd like to see it grow to the point that releasing classic movies will be profitable for studios and that smaller companies like Criterion and Blue Underground can release their catalogue and make a profit. Otherwise we might be stuck with a format on which only last year's hit from Hollywood that looks like a video game gets a release and that does not interest me at all.

troy evans · 05-16-2008, 02:05 AM

So, when you combine the Blu-ray player and PS3 you get about 10% of 2500 surveyed? That's about right at this stage and not too bad really. 250 out of 2500 want or own a player and if we multiply that number it gets even better. The survey, the way I read it, is in Blu's favor. I don't even think dvd had this penitration when it was launched and I heard all the same surveys then as I do now. Blu-ray is here to stay and only going to grow stronger as everything makes it's move to Hi-Def.

troy evans · 05-16-2008, 02:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny_N

Depends on the people who make up that large niche. If I look at all the complaints about a little grain in a movie, I'd say that the current niche is not averse to excessive DVNR.

I doubt BD will ever overtake DVD but I'd like to see it grow to the point that releasing classic movies will be profitable for studios and that smaller companies like Criterion and Blue Underground can release their catalogue and make a profit. Otherwise we might be stuck with a format on which only last year's hit from Hollywood that looks like a video game gets a release and that does not interest me at all.

Criterion and Blue Underground ARE releasing titles to Blu-ray this year. Check it out: Blue Underground Launches Blu-ray Support | High-Def Digest

Danny_N · 05-16-2008, 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troy evans

Criterion and Blue Underground ARE releasing titles to Blu-ray this year. Check it out: Blue Underground Launches Blu-ray Support | High-Def Digest

I know that, but will they sell enough copies of their releases to make it profitable for them? I don't want this to be a one time appearance of these companies on BD.

Ronald Epstein · 05-16-2008, 05:18 AM

Bottom line....

These BR players and software need to come down in price if you want
to entice the common consumer into purchase.

Now that the format war is over there seems to be no incentive
for many of the major companies to drop prices.

Robert Crawford · 05-16-2008, 05:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronald Epstein

Bottom line....

These BR players and software need to come down in price if you want
to entice the common consumer into purchase.

Now that the format war is over there seems to be no incentive
for many of the major companies to drop prices.

There is an incentive, but the economic state including the devalue of the dollar has played a part in this pricing issue. The real test will come this Fall and holiday season.

PaulDA · 05-16-2008, 07:05 AM

Don't underestimate the effect of the devalued dollar (essentially a form of inflation) on pricing. A dropping dollar and soaring oil prices do not make for a good combination for items with large quantities of plastic in them. It is not the only reason, of course, but it is a factor.

Travis Brashear · 05-16-2008, 07:08 AM

Did anyone else get hung up on this line: "Of course, just 35% of those polled owned an HDTV"? Well, who gives a rip about the other 65%?! How is Blu-ray gonna take off with non-HD consumers? Hey, here's another factoid for ya--out of 2,500 people surveyed, only 10% were interested in funding advanced space research; of course, 2,250 of the people surveyed were members of the ancient Umbutu tribe of darkest East Africa, so that's worth considering. This means that only 875 members of this polling pool are even viable candidates right now (the others can be shunted off to a "More Research Asserts that HDTV Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge" article). So now we're talking about 9% of 875, with that number likely to jump up by at least 4%-5% in short order since it's clear than many HD-DVD owners are actively prepared to go Blu any moment now. I think those are swell numbers at this stage of the game. I still think 2009 (the year entire) will be the true measuring stick of what the future will hold re: the level of success for Blu-ray. For now, I'm with many of the rest of you--hell, I'm spending over $200 on Blu-ray titles just next Tuesday alone.