More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge - Page 5

gallandro · 05-19-2008, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Douglas Monce

I didn't say that prices hadn't gone up, I said they aren't anywhere near all time highs when adjusted for inflation. Even the price of gas isn't as high, when adjusted, as it was in 1982.

I guess a lot of you don't remember the 70s when we were REALLY in a recession. When unemployment was around 8.5% and taxes were taking almost 50% of your income.

Walmart recently reported that while sales were off for about 2 months in the winter, that their sales were right back up to normal levels last month. Ford last month reported a profit for the first quarter of 2008. Ford has been in the red for something like 18 months. So SOMEONE must be spending money.

Doug

Thanks Doug for bringing a little reality to the forums. Sure prices have gone up on certain items, but it is nowhere near the doom and gloom the media would have you believe.

For example the so-called housing "crisis" and homes in foreclosure affects barely 4% of homes in the U.S., up from around the average of just over 2%. Now being in foreclosure DOES NOT mean your house is going to be taken from you tomorrow, it simply means you are at least three house payments behind, and most mortgage companies are at least willing to work out the problem.

Additionally what the press doesn't bother to tell you is that the MAJORITY of homes in foreclosure ARE NOT the primary homes of the homeowner. They are second houses or homes that were bought as rentals with quick fix ARMs or Interest Only loans in an effort for people to make quick money with rental properties, now that interest rates are going up the "chickens are coming home to roost" as it were.

Blu-Ray's failures are simply price of players and price of movies versus perceived value over standard def DVDs. If the economy were the only reason for Blu-Ray's failure then please explain how a $60 video game (Grand Theft Auto 4) broke all records and in one week generated over $1 billion in revenue for Rockstar Games/Capcom, or how that same week Iron Man generated over $100 million at the box office from Thursday-Sunday?

If the economy were in tatters and we were on the brink of a fiscal meltdown people would not be spending money the way they are today!

Yancy

AlexCosmo · 05-19-2008, 06:50 PM

Things are moving faster now, downloading doesn't even have to be genuinely THAT close to make most people want to pass on Blu-ray. The mere potential is enough, it's like a relief to them to not buy movies and players again. (plus, it sounds stupid, but it's not helping that many stores have the discs in those thick plastic theft cases that have to be removed. People see those cases with some movie they've already bought once and they head for the hills.)

Michael Reuben · 05-19-2008, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gallandro

If the economy were the only reason for Blu-Ray's failure

No one has argued any such thing.

M.

Maxpower1987 · 05-19-2008, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gallandro

Blu-Ray's failures are simply price of players and price of movies versus perceived value over standard def DVDs. If the economy were the only reason for Blu-Ray's failure then please explain how a $60 video game (Grand Theft Auto 4) broke all records and in one week generated over $1 billion in revenue for Rockstar Games/Capcom, or how that same week Iron Man generated over $100 million at the box office from Thursday-Sunday?

Escapism...

The 'golden years' for Hollywood have always been in times of depression/recession. Entertainment always makes more money during a recession, technology, though, doesn't.

Also, it is easy to spend money when they print so much of it...

Douglas Monce · 05-19-2008, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Escapism...

The 'golden years' for Hollywood have always been in times of depression/recession. Entertainment always makes more money during a recession, technology, though, doesn't.

Also, it is easy to spend money when they print so much of it...

Actually movie attendance did drop in the great depression and several smaller film studios went out of business. It went up dramatically during the boom of world war 2 to a high point in 1947. Of course one could argue that there was nothing else for anyone to spend money on in the war years.

Doug

gallandro · 05-19-2008, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Escapism...

The 'golden years' for Hollywood have always been in times of depression/recession. Entertainment always makes more money during a recession, technology, though, doesn't.

Also, it is easy to spend money when they print so much of it...

Unmitigated bullcrap, learn you history. The Depression affected some 20-24% of the public (on average). Again the majority of Americans were largely unaffected by the economic crisis of the day and continued, as they had before, to go to the movies. Hollywood in the 30s was not propped up by some poor unemployed working class of Americans who handed over there last dollars to be swept away in wave of escapism.

The unemployed masses turned to the radio for their entertainment. Interestingly most Depression era victims kept two things, their cars and their radios.

Yancy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Douglas Monce

Actually movie attendance did drop in the great depression and several smaller film studios went out of business. It went up dramatically during the boom of world war 2 to a high point in 1947. Of course one could argue that there was nothing else for anyone to spend money on in the war years.

Doug

Great point Doug.

Yancy

Goko · 05-19-2008, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Expect some nice promotional activity towards the end of Q3 building up to a big Q4.

I think this is a stupid way to conduct business. I think you got to go "old school," i.e. to make money you got to spend money....
Just look at the huge gobs of money that other forms of entertainment are currently spending to stay in the public limelight. I see more commercials/newspaper ads for games/Dish/DirecTV than I do for Blu-ray.
The only way all of this makes sense to me is if the HDM industry already has accepted that HDM will never go mainstream and, like Laserdisc before it, is satisfied with remaining a niche product.

ChristopherDAC · 05-20-2008, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gallandro

If the economy were the only reason for Blu-Ray's failure…

Intriguing how the failure of Blu-Ray is taken as an accomplished fact.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gallandro

Unmitigated bullcrap, learn you history. The Depression affected some 20-24% of the public (on average). Again the majority of Americans were largely unaffected by the economic crisis of the day…

Strong language to use for such a dubious point. I have to suggest that an economic problem becomes severe, & its effects broadly felt, long before 50% of the population is dispossessed. Even a rise of, for example, 5 percentage points in the unemployment rate, or an equivalent increase in bankruptcies, considerably alters the balance of the economic system.

Michael Reuben · 05-20-2008, 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChristopherDAC

Quote:

Originally Posted by gallandro

Unmitigated bullcrap, learn you history. The Depression affected some 20-24% of the public (on average). Again the majority of Americans were largely unaffected by the economic crisis of the day…

Strong language to use for such a dubious point. I have to suggest that an economic problem becomes severe, & its effects broadly felt, long before 50% of the population is dispossessed.

Yes, it's amazing how cavalier some people can become when they're quoting bloodless percentages. Using the 1933 U.S. population of 125 million, we're talking about "only" 25-30 million people being affected by the Depression.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChristopherDAC

Quote:

Originally Posted by gallandro

If the economy were the only reason for Blu-Ray's failure…

Intriguing how the failure of Blu-Ray is taken as an accomplished fact.

As I noted earlier, no one has made the argument that gallandro is "refuting". The whole thing's a strawman.

M.

troy evans · 05-20-2008, 02:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexCosmo

Things are moving faster now, downloading doesn't even have to be genuinely THAT close to make most people want to pass on Blu-ray. The mere potential is enough, it's like a relief to them to not buy movies and players again. (plus, it sounds stupid, but it's not helping that many stores have the discs in those thick plastic theft cases that have to be removed. People see those cases with some movie they've already bought once and they head for the hills.)

I hope the download revolution for films is many years down the road. I still like physical media. I believe most on this forum do.