Why Blu-ray or Hd-dvd will not be supported even with low player costs - Page 2

Holer · 08-26-2007, 07:39 AM

I decided to buy a Blu-Ray player yesterday when I saw what I thought was a good deal at Costco. I am definitely worried that I may have bought the next Betamax player, but then I watched Casino Royale in Hi-Def and was appropriately gob-smacked.

Up until that moment, I was a fervent believer that SD was the way to go, and I am still a fan, especially with prices so low. Now though, hi-def really has upped the ante from their original ho-hum releases and I think once the average consumer sees it, they will want it.

I can't predict a winner in the format war, but I suspect the actual players will be around in one form or another for a good long time, so no matter which way we choose to go, we won't end up with anything obsolete. My attitude is that my BR discs are the 'videophile' equivalents to the super audio-fidelity versions of my favorite albums.

One thing all the studios need to stop doing though, regardless of format, is putting out titles with substandard transfers just to say they are on Hi-def. I think a lot of the early titles suffered from this, but now that movies like 'Casino Royale' and 'Pirates' have pushed the envelope, the studios need to maintain that level of quality. Ultimately, that is what will bring the buyers into the market.

JohnPhi · 08-26-2007, 10:17 AM

Dan got it a little wrong, sure prices keep people from jumping in, but this format war is what will really keep people away. Even if both sides had palyers at 200, it would not help. Sure each side would sell more players, but not hit mass adoption. Bottom line, most consumers will not buy into any format where content is divided over two systems.

ppltd · 08-26-2007, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnPhi

Dan got it a little wrong, sure prices keep people from jumping in, but this format war is what will really keep people away. Even if both sides had palyers at 200, it would not help. Sure each side would sell more players, but not hit mass adoption. Bottom line, most consumers will not buy into any format where content is divided over two systems.

John, I personally believe that if there were only one format, the general public would still not buy. At this time, no one has shown them a valid reason to move from SD to HD. If there is no pressing need for the general consumer to change, they won't. I suspect that the general consumer does not even know there is a HD format war on.

As far as pricing goes, 200.00 still seems to be the magic price point, but even at that price, there still has to be an excitement to get the product before it will sell, and that does not exist. What with 40.00 disk prices, it may never.

Jeff Ulmer · 08-26-2007, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carlo Medina

For the old timers:

You know what would help HD/BD beat DVD?

Reel.com coupons

Ah yes, the DVD crack.

I think it's way too early to expect decent pricing on HD content on either format. I know I paid a huge premium for being an early DVD adopter (and I do mean huge), and am really not interested in doing the same for HD versions. Players under $200 and software well under $20 is about where things need to be to get any serious interest from me. When I can buy a complete TV series like Northern Exposure on DVD for under $150 (granted this wouldn't have cost that littel as season sets), yet a single season of Trek is $200+ forget it.

Averry · 08-26-2007, 02:37 PM

Also, alot of people say that the price difference of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD drives is rapidly decreasing, forget that HD-DVD playes are dropping as well.

It gets to a point where $300 and $200 dollars is LESS than $300 and $500, but suddenly an HD-DVD drive is only $200.

That goes along way. As Blu goes down, so does HD-DVD. It just depends on how much it matters.

JohnPhi · 08-26-2007, 02:47 PM

Another problem with adoption is this. There was no question in upgrading catalogue vhs or laserdisc titles. The buying of titles on dvd from vhs, often meant getting a film on widescreen for the first time, or with bonus materials, and on a fairly indestructible disk format. Now with HD, you have a quality jump, but not so much on features and so on. What it boils down to is that people will rebuy less, and thus be less motivated to even buy at all.

In the end, one successor most left standing for it to have any chance at taking out dvd. United we stand, divided we fall.

I keep hearing that universal players will save the day, but in the end, that did not help dvd audio and sacd, too little, too late. The same is likely here. It will take much longer for universal player prices to drop to the magic 199 number for mass adoption and by then, people will have moved on or the next best thing will be here

Jason Seaver · 08-26-2007, 04:18 PM

I was thinking about this the other night, and I kind of wonder if the two optical formats aren't just biding time until flash memory prices get low enough to to be used for pre-recorded media. If in five years, you can get 16GB or 32GB on an SD card for a dollar or two, you're talking about something that can be plugged, either directly or via a cheap USB device, into a television, receiver, DVD player, computer, mobile phone, or handheld media player; can be individually watermarked as an anti-piracy measure; and is small enough that someone can put a dozen or so into their pockets. Sure, this may stink for the packaging and disc-art fetishists, but if you figure read-only or write-once-read-many memory is cheaper than RAM, it might not be that far away.

Averry · 08-26-2007, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Seaver

I was thinking about this the other night, and I kind of wonder if the two optical formats aren't just biding time until flash memory prices get low enough to to be used for pre-recorded media.

No way.

Like either company is "bidding time" by sticking nearly billions into this whole thing.

And if that happens, there's not telling who would benefit from profits from FLash memory.

RickER · 08-26-2007, 04:44 PM

I think people over estimate the movie down load future. The near future anyway. Not everyone has a computer, many still use dial up. My DSL and new computer (Dell XPS 410) are not the fastest at video (I Tunes trailers as an example). Add to that its a pain in the ass. I want easy, and for some of you tech types it is, for many its not easy. I have trouble with the damn I POD music at times!
But the big one, who wants to watch movies on a computer screen? Cause even fewer have all that stuff hooked up to the home theater system. Long way to go, and LOTS of money just to DL a movie?
It may happen, but i will be an old man, and so will you young guys!
DVD in some form HD or not, will be here for a long time! IMO of course

JohnPhi · 08-26-2007, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickER

I think people over estimate the movie down load future. The near future anyway. Not everyone has a computer, many still use dial up. My DSL and new computer (Dell XPS 410) are not the fastest at video (I Tunes trailers as an example). Add to that its a pain in the ass. I want easy, and for some of you tech types it is, for many its not easy. I have trouble with the damn I POD music at times!
But the big one, who wants to watch movies on a computer screen? Cause even fewer have all that stuff hooked up to the home theater system. Long way to go, and LOTS of money just to DL a movie?
It may happen, but i will be an old man, and so will you young guys!
DVD in some form HD or not, will be here for a long time! IMO of course

ah you assume the we have to be talking pc's. I picture it more like tivo's with massive hard drives, like a vod, on demand, type of thing