**Official HTF HD Formats Ind./Retailer/Studio Support Thread-*SEE POST 3176, p. 106* - Page 9

BrettGallman · 08-20-2007, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Douglas Monce

I think this really depends on how many players are sold this Christmas. Frankly I don't think most consumers are confused at all because they haven't heard of either format. However if you have a player on sale this Christmas for around $150, you may get quite a few of those house holds that invested in an HDTV over the last 2 years, to buy an HD player. And it's looking more and more like HD DVD will get to that price before blu-ray.

This is all about the price of the players, I've been saying that for over a year now.

Doug

That's very true, and I do agree with that, I guess. If HD-DVD players get down to a very affordable price, it'll be interesting to see how the sales of software will be affected.

Since I'm format neutral, I haven't been following the sales trends very closely (just enough to know that BD has been outselling HD-DVD consistently). Has there been a noticable increase in HD-DVD software with each hardware price reduction?

DaViD Boulet · 08-20-2007, 05:52 PM

Quote:

This sounds like circular reasoning to me. "BR has the best chance to win because it's winning". However, that is not the same as saying "if BR doesn't win, people will never accept (and buy in large numbers) HDDVD".

HD DVD can't win without Disney, Fox, and MGM. And they aren't about to be swayed by pay-offs: their backing of BD is deep-rooted and lies with issues like BD-J, BD+, and the bandwidth of BD. These are things HD DVD can't ever do.

So given the reality of the landscape of industry support from those studios, even if the other studios were to go dual or go HD DVD, the best case for HD DVD would be a stale-mate where consumers just reject HD media out of frustration.

Personally, since BD is the better-technical-specification, I'm happy that it's the one that Disney/Fox/MGM have chosen. I'd have chosen it too and for the same reasons were I in their shoes. It's a shame that BD didn't have it together with their profile-spec requirements months ago. That would have made it a "done deal" as far as full functionality and maybe helped tip the favor of Universal.

Paramount's decision doesn't seem to have anything to do with web-connectivity and other "full spec" issues like Universal talks about. Of course, what a studio talks about and what is behind their real motivations can be quite different. I wonder what this game will look like in December.

BrettGallman · 08-20-2007, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobertR

This sounds like circular reasoning to me. "BR has the best chance to win because it's winning". However, that is not the same as saying "if BR doesn't win, people will never accept (and buy in large numbers) HDDVD".

I don't really consider is circular reasoning--it's more like an informed guess. I mean, at this point, it's hard to argue that BD isn't winning from a sales perspective, and this has been going on all year long. It doesn't mean this will hold true forever, but right now, I'm saying that I feel BD has the best chance of winning this war from the evidence that's out there right now. Regardless, if the situation was the other way around, I'd say that HD-DVD has the best chance for mass adoption. Honestly, I feel that they're both fantastic formats and I don't really have a personal stake in it, so I just want ONE format to emerge, and right now, BD seems to have the best chance. The fact that it happens to be technically superior is just icing on the cake.

RobertR · 08-20-2007, 05:59 PM

Quote:

HD DVD can't win without Disney, Fox, and MGM. And they aren't about to be swayed by pay-offs: their backing of BD is deep-rooted and lies with issues like BD-J, BD+, and the bandwidth of BD. These are things HD DVD can't ever do.

Is that a flat statement that it's inconceivable that those studios would ever support HDDVD?

Jim-J · 08-20-2007, 06:02 PM

Indiana Jones to be available in both BD & HD-DVD???

http://www.aintitcool.com/node/33722

Shane Martin · 08-20-2007, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Isn't it just possible that Paramount is losing money on its blu-ray releases?

No. If that is the reasoning, they are losing money on their HD DVD releases which sell less numbers.

All this payoff is(to me) is a hedge for Paramount and whatnot to absorb the amount they would have made on their BR releases.

DavidJ · 08-20-2007, 06:10 PM

It it too late to add my "wow" to the collective? I did not see this coming and it is pretty big news in this "war." It makes me feel a bit better about my XA2 upgrade. And it is not surprising that Fox made their announcement today. I mean a lot of Blu-ray authoring slots just opened up.

Cees Alons · 08-20-2007, 06:12 PM

Quote:

No. If that is the reasoning, they are losing money on their HD DVD releases which sell less numbers.

Profit margins on both formats aren't equal.

Also, one must assume that at one point in time the initial deals with Sony about authoring and pressing BDs and rate of the royalties wear out. That will change the costs and thus the bottom line.

Apart from that: if they would be losing (still) on both formats, twice as many sold, means double the loss.
Nielssen numbers don't say everything, you need to know the (net) profits per sale.

Cees

ReggieW · 08-20-2007, 06:15 PM

Come on Dave!?

We've heard these points beaten to bloody death by you. BD's so-called superiority in tech specs (which I don't necessarily agree with since it is BD who is behind on IME and interconnectivity) and studio support. None of these things will be instrumental in the outcome of this war. My mother doesn't know the difference between uncompressed PCM and Dolby True HD, nor do she and a majority of consumers care! They will however care about the price of software and players.

Paramount/Dreamworks IS exclusive to HD-DVD now. Deal with it. No amount of spin can cloud this simple reality.

I have made it clear that I feel it's wrong for Paramount to flat out drop BD, but this is the REALITY. I also at the time thought that Blockbuster's decision to only carry BD with such as small HD market was short-sighted. So now you won't be able to go into Blockbuster and rent Transformers, Shrek 3, Bourne Ultimatum, Heroes S1, BSG S1, St: TOS S1, and many other big "exclusives." In the end Blockbuster will only hurt themselves, as people turn to Netflix and other stores to rent their HD-DVD titles. Gosh..I would think that expensive box sets like Heroes, Tos and BSG would be perfect for renting as many consumers may not want to invest that much coin in a season set.

Oh well.........

Douglas Monce · 08-20-2007, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

HD DVD can't win without Disney, Fox, and MGM. And they aren't about to be swayed by pay-offs: their backing of BD is deep-rooted and lies with issues like BD-J, BD+, and the bandwidth of BD. These are things HD DVD can't ever do.

Again I'm not totally convinced that this is the case. If a significant number of HD DVD players are sold then anything could happen. In the long run it is after all about making money.

Doug