Weekly hi def sales numbers - Nielsen/VideoScan - Page 9

ReggieW · 07-03-2007, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris S

I have to agree with Marc. It's all in the level of the perception not necessarily just the fact of it. To me this is why HD media will likely remain only a close cousin to SD DVD.

I found this very funny because my wife drives a BMW and I drive a Honda. To me the Honda was good enough.

....So is my Acura

(actually, this would be a better analogy than comparing BMW to Honda).

On topic: I also don't see people rushing to replace their SD-DVD collections anytime soon. These HD formats are merely curiosities at this stage.

Chris Gerhard · 07-03-2007, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen_J_H

And vinyl's been around for, what, 100 years and is still avidly collected by a few audiophiles, as well as being the currency in trade for the hip-hop and club music scenes. It may be on life support, but it's still being used for its flexibility and sound quality.

I don't get this "old=bad" line of thought. If a format is proven reliable and still viable, the only thing that's going to kill it is if something even better and more reliable comes along. If you're thinking VOD is going to supplant 5" shiny discs as the format of choice, think again. If I hear one more person proclaim that VOD is the future, I'm going to SCREAM.

I don't know what the future is and haven't predicted anything in that regard. Yes, I know vinyl is still around as a tiny niche product, I am saying that the 5" shiny disc won't be the mainstream item it is now forever. The various mainstream formats on 5" shiny disc will end sometime, that is just the way of the world. Both CD and DVD have peaked and are declining, neither will be replaced by a different 5" shiny disc as the mainstream method of delivery for their content to the consumer. SACD sure didn't replace CD, downloading and other methods became for more successful. HD DVD or Blu-ray won't replace DVD and I don't think we ever see another 5" shiny disc take hold of a market like CD with basically 100% market penetration and DVD with about 95% market penetration.

Chris

Dave H · 07-03-2007, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Douglas Monce

Thats how they started with DVD. And if you look at Target or Walmart thats about how many titles they have been offering for sale.

Doug

Maybe so, but things are different this time around with Blockbuster - especially with such a well broadcasted announcement.

I guess we'll find out next week - they should be rolling into the stores then.

Douglas Monce · 07-03-2007, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave H

Maybe so, but things are different this time around with Blockbuster - especially with such a well broadcasted announcement.

I guess we'll find out next week - they should be rolling into the stores then.

I don't know I haven't rented movies from a B&M store in over 10 years. Though I do rent HD DVDs from Blockbuster on line.

Doug

ppltd · 07-03-2007, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marc Colella

Sorry, but there are many who still won't really see the difference. At best, they'll see a small difference in comparison to DVD. It's not as night-and-day as DVD to VHS was. I've seen people's reactions at stores to HDDVD/Blu-Ray displays beside the DVD displays playing the same movie - and while it looks like a nice upgrade to me, they commented that they didn't see much of a difference.

This has been the single most discouraging thing I have seen first hand. I have many 'movie' nights at my house for friends and guests. When it is to watch a game in HD on DirecTv, I get very positive reactions, but when it is a movie, the reaction is very different. There just is not the enthusiasm I see with the sports HD presentations. I have had literally 50 or 60 people in viewing HD movies and other then the few friends I have that are truly Videophiles, no one else really cared about any difference in presentation, or just didn't notice.

Ed St. Clair · 07-04-2007, 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Austan

So if all the exclusive Studios stay exclusive... Then that leaves the neutral studios... If BR still outsells HD, then wouldn't it make sense for these studios to switch over to 1 format rather then wasting money on 2???

Not with combos.

Unless you think a BD buyer would never buy a HD DVD disc even if they owned a combo player & vice visa. Do you think the lines are drawn that deeply?

Ryan-G · 07-04-2007, 05:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard

I don't know what the future is and haven't predicted anything in that regard. Yes, I know vinyl is still around as a tiny niche product, I am saying that the 5" shiny disc won't be the mainstream item it is now forever. The various mainstream formats on 5" shiny disc will end sometime, that is just the way of the world. Both CD and DVD have peaked and are declining, neither will be replaced by a different 5" shiny disc as the mainstream method of delivery for their content to the consumer. SACD sure didn't replace CD, downloading and other methods became for more successful. HD DVD or Blu-ray won't replace DVD and I don't think we ever see another 5" shiny disc take hold of a market like CD with basically 100% market penetration and DVD with about 95% market penetration.

Chris

I'm afraid I have to disagree.

-HD discs can grandfather themselves in over time in the worst case, the backwards compatibility means they can slowly work themselves in without disruption, unlike pretty much every other format switch over time. The only difference is SACD/DVDA, but then, it released around the same time Napster and other MP3 sites offered pretty much all music for free.

-While it's possible holographic media could replace DVD, it's unlikely, as unlike HD discs it's not backwards compatible and invalidates all existing purchases, as well as offering no tangible advantages over HD discs.

-I doubt VoD is going to go anywhere major, at least not any time soon. First, storage is a massive issue. Second bandwidth, Fios level bandwidth is needed and the U.S. at least isn't even completely cable level bandwidth. Third, pricing and ownership rights are a problem. Fourth, and this is the biggie, it's wide-open to piracy. It's a file, that can easily be intercepted with just a router, run through a filter to strip off the DRM, and put out there for all to download in pristine glory. It lacks any and every other possible method of piracy control.

-CD's days have been numbered for a long time, most people barely listen to half of the songs on a disc. MP3's offer better portability, cost, and let's people bypass the "Bad" songs. Contrast this to Movies, how many people actually want to take a dozen movies with them so they can watch 2-3 scenes out of it as they're driving? Portability is nowhere near as much an issue, cost is significantly cheaper than the primary alternative of Movie Theaters, and people watch all of a movie not just parts.

I think it's likely HD discs will replace DVD over time. Once people see a DVD on the decent HDTV they bought in comparision to the HD TV-stations they've been watching, it'll start a slow conversion. DVD's pretty obvious in it's defects, especially on a decent sized HDTV. People don't completely remember what something looked like when comparing it to something new, our brains inherently insert information we know is present even if we didn't see it, or didn't see it clearly, and when we try distant recall the result is often...fuzzy. Put someone in front of a HDTV showing them first a DVD then a 1080p HD disc on the same scene and you'll probably get different results. Kinda like people "Remembering" seeing parts in movies that never actually existed, memory is an iffy thing, especially if it's been tainted by a fairly decent Theater showing at some point blurring the lines between Theater -> SDTV -> HDTV even further.

Cees Alons · 07-04-2007, 06:08 AM

Yep, Ryan, I agree. Even if VOD would gain some more popularity over cable, the need for supplying HD (possibly limited to 720p) will arise when people will own more and more HDTVs.

At the same time, the demand for HD discs to own will increase dramatically, and indeed it will probably be a "shifting in" effect: more and more DVDs bought will be HD, after the individual consumer has taken the HD player barrier. That's why I believe that a combi-player is an essential prerequisite for the general acceptance of the format, BTW.

The first prerequisite: more HDTVs in homes, is already coming true. In Europe, one hardly sees anything else offered in shops and on the internet anymore, and together with the official disappearance of the "analog" TV transmissions (definitively stopped in my country now), penetration in households of the HDTV set will be really quick.

Cees

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I am format neutral - it's many studios, that's who are not.
And a few fanboys and followers.

Dave H · 07-04-2007, 06:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Douglas Monce

I don't know I haven't rented movies from a B&M store in over 10 years. Though I do rent HD DVDs from Blockbuster on line.

Doug

I've been using Netflix exclusively for both formats - however, I'll have to check out my local Blockbuster next week to see how/what they're carrying in Blu-ray.

One thing a bit frustrating about Netflix is how they have not been carrying certain HD DVD titles (The Sting and The Big Lebowski, for example). Otherwise, I've been happy with them - fast turn-around times and usually the waits aren't too bad aside from Casino Royale just now finally being available and shipped to me!

Douglas Monce · 07-04-2007, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cees Alons

The first prerequisite: more HDTVs in homes, is already coming true. In Europe, one hardly sees anything else offered in shops and on the internet anymore, and together with the official disappearance of the "analog" TV transmissions (definitively stopped in my country now), penetration in households of the HDTV set will be really quick.

Cees

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I am format neutral - it's many studios, that's who are not.
And a few fanboys and followers.

This is true in the States too. Even walmart now carries more HDTVs than standard TVs. I still think my color tv analogy is accurate. Color TV took 20 years to replace B&W in terms of sales numbers. I think HD will slowly but surely replace SD.

Doug