Manufacturer's Reps Reporting Little Interest in Blu-ray, HD DVD

Paul Arnette · 05-18-2007, 09:19 AM

Below is a link to a CEPro article that paints a pretty bleak and depressing picture as far as wide-spread acceptance of HD optical media is concerned.

http://www.cepro.com/news/editorial/18982.html

I was particularly vexed by the comments about Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD looking little better than upconverted DVD. However, I understand that there is wide disparity in the quality of HDTVs, and, unfortunately, many do not properly deinterlace, etc.

Given how long it took for DVD to gain mass-market acceptance with one format, I cannot help but think that next gen media has come too early for the masses. That said, I don't necessarily mind BD and HD DVD being niche formats. It does however make all the hand-wringing by the studio and the format cheerleaders all the more amusing.

Note: If this isn't the correct forum for this thread, please feel free to move it. Both HD hardware and software are discussed in this article, so it kind of made it hard for me to decide which forum to post it in.

Michael TLV · 05-18-2007, 09:57 AM

Greetings

I've been to that high end audio store they talk about and video isn't really high on their minds. Compared to the upgrade in video versus the price of that high end audio ... I don't think they should be talking about what is too expensive ...

As well, it just sounds like they haven't even taken the time to look at either of the HD products. The comment was just plain uninformed and ignorant.

Regards

Ryan-G · 05-19-2007, 04:07 AM

Alot of red flags in there IMO.

Quote:

"None of the big names are promoting either format," such as Denon, and Marantz, he argues. Onkyo is one of the few high-end brands that has taken a side, announcing an HD DVD player at CES.

Has little effect, average consumers aren't looking for those brands. It's kinda like saying that no one's interested in Hybrids because Lambroghini isn't marketing one.

Not going to quote the rest of the thing, but...

Promoting upconverting DVD Players over HD Players because of library size? Sounds like someone's trying to sell through stock and/or looking for the double dip on the Player. Of course the libraries aren't comparable, HD hasn't been out a year.

Comparing upconverting demand, but no mention of HDTV installed base or price concerns? Can't sell an HD Player to someone who doesn't own an HDTV.

Comparing HD Players to DVD-Audio? DVD-Audio never had any tangible increase in quality over CD for non-audiophiles.

The most entertaining: No music or concert discs? C'mon. This is not a major seller on any format, There aren't that many people listening to music on a TV. Especially with Itunes popularity.

To it's credit though, it at least mentions the price barrier and the format war.

Jeff Adkins · 05-19-2007, 11:11 PM

I don't think there's much to worry about in terms of content being available. Prices are another matter though. If neither format really takes off, you can expect companies like Image Entertainment and Criterion to pick up the slack, just like with laserdisc.

EnricoE · 05-20-2007, 04:26 PM

maybe hd dvd and blu-ray are the next laserdisc.

**HTF Ads**

Marc Colella · 05-20-2007, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EnricoE

maybe hd dvd and blu-ray are the next laserdisc.

You can bet on it.

It won't be as niche as Laserdisc, but a niche it will definitely be.

Dave H · 05-20-2007, 11:02 PM

I still think without a single doubt that the format war is hurting overall sales - despite the competition between the formats and the lower prices it has brought. There's just too much uncertainty and dislike of two formats for many, many people and "would be" shoppers out there.

Ryan-G · 05-21-2007, 03:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave H

I still think without a single doubt that the format war is hurting overall sales - despite the competition between the formats and the lower prices it has brought. There's just too much uncertainty and dislike of two formats for many, many people and "would be" shoppers out there.

I can agree on that.

But when the mess is over, and it will end, I think it'll work out for the best. It's lowering prices much faster than normal, which means adoption will occur much more readily.

Pick your scenario X beats Y, Y beats X, Uni makes it moot, any will work.

As far as being niche goes, I don't think it will be. The grandfathering scenario pretty much guarantees adoption at some point, no reason for people not to go with the HD once price parity occurs.

The only threat is digital downloads, and IMO, it's grossly overexagerated. To reiterate from another thread, just to store DVD quality media we're talking Petabytes of storage. Going up to 1080p and we're talking currently unimaginable amounts of storage. There's no way any company can come up with sufficient cash to manage Petabytes of SCSI storage in the near future. We're just now getting 1 terrabyte SATA drives, and SCSI commands an easy 10x price increase over SATA. SATA isn't workable for something like this, it doesn't handle multiple random requests well.

FIOS handles the bandwidth problem though.

Then we've got the piracy problem. Handing out pristine digital copies is a major issue, and there's nothing to prevent them from being cracked, unlike physical media. Physical media at least can conceivably setup flags that it won't run/read unless X protections are in place. Digital copies have no such protection, they'll already exist on the drive. Once the algorithem becomes known, they'll be run through the software to de-DRM them, and released enmasse. At least Physical media could conceivably find a way to use a physical mark on the disk to prevent playing pirated material(Yes, I know, it'd impact fair use, but in honesty, the DRM does too and it's not been challenged).

Streaming the files is bad buisness as well. Either the user owns it or the company does. If the company owns it, I doubt they'll want to pay bandwidth costs repeatedly to allow unlimited viewings. Any given child who watches "Finding Nemo" for 8 hours a day would cost them a fortune. If the user owns it, streaming isn't an option, they need to be given a copy. So I doubt streaming "On-demand" would do much else than replace the Rental Market which wouldn't have an effect on the formats. Something would still be adopted for "Owning" a movie.

Given the extreme rate at which piracy is being adapted(The new AACS was cracked before even a single disc with the algorithem released, meaning The Matrix), I doubt studios will support digital downloads to any meaningfull extent. It's just too open to piracy, and once you adapt the market to downloading movies you've incidently adapted them to downloading pirated movies as you remove some of the inhibitions created by the "Technology intimidation" factor. One friend with a weblink to a P2P and you lose your customer.

Overall, I think Physical Media is here to stay unless major anti-piracy efforts are rolled out. I think grandfathering will insure eventual adoption. I think succeeding technologies like Holographics are likely to niche because of the "I don't see/hear a difference" problem in upgrading resolutions and their lack of backwards compatibility.

DaViD Boulet · 05-21-2007, 09:40 AM

Quote:

"None of the big names are promoting either format," such as Denon, and Marantz, he argues. Onkyo is one of the few high-end brands that has taken a side, announcing an HD DVD player at CES.

Clearly the person writing this article is pretty clueless regarding some of the basic facts. I suppose he/she doesn't consider Sony, Pioneer, and Panasonic as big-name-brands?

Onkyo = high-end?

Dave H · 05-21-2007, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryan-G

I can agree on that.

But when the mess is over, and it will end, I think it'll work out for the best. It's lowering prices much faster than normal, which means adoption will occur much more readily.

Pick your scenario X beats Y, Y beats X, Uni makes it moot, any will work.

As far as being niche goes, I don't think it will be. The grandfathering scenario pretty much guarantees adoption at some point, no reason for people not to go with the HD once price parity occurs.

The only threat is digital downloads, and IMO, it's grossly overexagerated. To reiterate from another thread, just to store DVD quality media we're talking Petabytes of storage. Going up to 1080p and we're talking currently unimaginable amounts of storage. There's no way any company can come up with sufficient cash to manage Petabytes of SCSI storage in the near future. We're just now getting 1 terrabyte SATA drives, and SCSI commands an easy 10x price increase over SATA. SATA isn't workable for something like this, it doesn't handle multiple random requests well.

FIOS handles the bandwidth problem though.

Then we've got the piracy problem. Handing out pristine digital copies is a major issue, and there's nothing to prevent them from being cracked, unlike physical media. Physical media at least can conceivably setup flags that it won't run/read unless X protections are in place. Digital copies have no such protection, they'll already exist on the drive. Once the algorithem becomes known, they'll be run through the software to de-DRM them, and released enmasse. At least Physical media could conceivably find a way to use a physical mark on the disk to prevent playing pirated material(Yes, I know, it'd impact fair use, but in honesty, the DRM does too and it's not been challenged).

Streaming the files is bad buisness as well. Either the user owns it or the company does. If the company owns it, I doubt they'll want to pay bandwidth costs repeatedly to allow unlimited viewings. Any given child who watches "Finding Nemo" for 8 hours a day would cost them a fortune. If the user owns it, streaming isn't an option, they need to be given a copy. So I doubt streaming "On-demand" would do much else than replace the Rental Market which wouldn't have an effect on the formats. Something would still be adopted for "Owning" a movie.

Given the extreme rate at which piracy is being adapted(The new AACS was cracked before even a single disc with the algorithem released, meaning The Matrix), I doubt studios will support digital downloads to any meaningfull extent. It's just too open to piracy, and once you adapt the market to downloading movies you've incidently adapted them to downloading pirated movies as you remove some of the inhibitions created by the "Technology intimidation" factor. One friend with a weblink to a P2P and you lose your customer.

Overall, I think Physical Media is here to stay unless major anti-piracy efforts are rolled out. I think grandfathering will insure eventual adoption. I think succeeding technologies like Holographics are likely to niche because of the "I don't see/hear a difference" problem in upgrading resolutions and their lack of backwards compatibility.

Well put!